Dow 2008 - Where will it finish?

[aiki14]

What do you think the range will be this year, and where will it finish.

I predict it will finish the year at 14,389 or a gain of 8.5% from open on 2 jan
The Low will be 12,032 or down 6% from todays close, the High 14,919 or up 12.5% from open 2 Jan.

Anyone want to opine?

[pa-sale]

Dow will end at 13,560. High will be 14,210.. low will be 11,910. Its almost 7:30 am here in spain.. too early for me to do the percentages..

I hope I am wrong.

[kingfisher]

Dow Low will be 12500 and close for 2008 will be 14100. I hope that low does'nt get broken.

[englishman26]

Dow low will be 11,600, but most of the next 6 months will be flat around 12,500, with a rise in the 2nd half of the year to finish at around 13,900 for a few % up on the year.

[cramerica1972]

it will finish the yr at 10,000,the market is way overvalued IMHO,it was HOUSING that spurred the market to 13,000.

[xpiratesxcorex]

**waiver: I don't really track the dow, I usually use the S&P 500 so my predictions are going to be rough estimates**

I think the end of the year has to do a lot with who is elected as president. Futures are pointing to Barack Obama, in this scenario I predict the Dow will close around 13,500, or roughly a 5% gain from close on Friday. If McCain wins I predict the Dow closing above 14,000-14,300 easy. As long as the ticket is McCain/Huckabee the GOP should have a pretty solid chance at capturing the presidency, which spells good news for the markets. Barack clearly has no grasp on economic principles, so an Obama/(Bayh,Clark,Richardson,whoever) win would only mean a market downturn.

We'll see.

[Gzapper]

imo the 1832 "clap" will arrive in montana making 78 people bake cookies for seseme street costume characters thus making the DOW close at $11,983.56 for the year 2008. :D

[kingfisher]

Gzaped

After reading X's post you changed your outlook by 1983.56 amazing!

I own some environmentally protected wetlands in Southern New Mexico near the beach. Would you be interested in purchasing it. I will give you a deal of a lifetime on it. Its a Bird Paradise. Lots of Loones there!

[Jelly]

imo the 1832 "clap" will arrive in montana making 78 people bake cookies for seseme street costume characters thus making the DOW close at $11,983.56 for the year 2008. :D
Mmmmmmmmm........cooooookies! Yeah!

[Gzapper]

Gzaped

After reading X's post you changed your outlook by 1983.56 amazing!

I own some environmentally protected wetlands in Southern New Mexico near the beach. Would you be interested in purchasing it. I will give you a deal of a lifetime on it. Its a Bird Paradise. Lots of Loones there!

quite interesting.. i would love to do lunch with you and discuss the many variables that await obama, clinton, and the cheese doodle fever sock puppets doyal and cruisy...not to mention...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLEzubBIfwc&feature=related

[kingfisher]

Your last Paste was a little blurry. Exactly where is Bootka. GPS numbers will help. We would love to FLY IN AND HAVE LUNCH with you. ;) Just kidding here your entitlement is current.:mrgreen:

[TonyM]

it will finish the yr at 10,000,the market is way overvalued IMHO,it was HOUSING that spurred the market to 13,000.

How so? Housing has been in strong decline since early '06, where was the dow then?

[reef]

17,288 end -17,995 high - 12,340 low :mrgreen:


Oh and I predict the housing problem will end.

[kingfisher]

AiKi,

I commend you on an excellent post.

Iozdman is our newest member. If you have not voted I have to ask why?

This site has 6222 members and only 39 members voted? This is an anonymous vote for those that are unaware.

I also have to ask, will you do the same in this years Presidential Election?

Cast your vote now, and in Nov. if you want your voice to be heard.

[englishman26]

Not far off Aiki's low pick of 12,032. Anyone want to revise to my 11,600 low or cramerica's 10,000??:thumpdown:

[cramerica1972]

Not far off Aiki's low pick of 12,032. Anyone want to revise to my 11,600 low or cramerica's 10,000??:thumpdown:it isnt far from 11,999 as we see,i still say 10,000.the era of easy money on wallstreet is over..........................FOR NOW ANYWAY

[reef]

Now its time to go thru the roof baby. :thumpdown:

[microhedge]

As DJIA Continues Swoon, 10,000 Level Inches Into Horizon

1/18/2008 2:16:48 PM

By Geoffrey Rogow and Rob Curran Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--As the stock market continues to get squeezed, some are starting to whisper "Dow 10000." "It's very possible to hit 10000 because the question is how deep and how long will the American recession be," said Joseph Battipaglia, chief market strategist for the private client group at Stifel Nicolaus. "The market has gone from not thinking a recession is going to happen to bracing for it." Earlier in the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped below its 52-week closing low, and was recently down 56 points at 12102 after falling as far as 12032, well below its 52-week low from March 5 of 12050. The intraday peak for the Dow was 14279.96 in November. In a recession, the typical peak to trough slide in the market is 25% to 28%, which would end up near 10,000 on the Dow. While the slide has been consistent for the Dow, the Standard & Poor's 500 has already marked what would be the worst January retreat in the more than 80-year history of the gauge. So far in January, there has been a perceptible change of sentiment among traders as some long-time bulls throw up their hands, often railing against the incremental approach of the Federal Reserve. There's good reason to believe declines could get yet worse. "What's most concerning is it's a credit-driven problem," said Battipaglia. "The consumer is overleveraged, consumer real estate is overleveraged, and corporate America is overleveraged on constantly increasing levels of credit. The unwinding is going to take us down." Battipaglia likens the situation to the Japanese experience when a decline in real estate prices and little stock growth helped lead to a decade of little economic growth. All of this negative sentiment is being tempered somewhat by a few promising signs, such as rosy outlooks about earnings growth from General Electric and International Business Machines. Also, there are even some signals from Washington as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has repeatedly pledged "substantive" rate cuts, and Congress is debating an economic stimulus package. But Battipaglia said neither area has found a fix for long-term growth and job creation. Moreover, the consumer's preference has been to save and not spend, which would hamper any stimulus package for the consumer, whose debt relative to disposal income level is at its highest in decades. As these factors continue to weigh on the minds of traders, most have admitted the first half of the year may be unsalvageable. "The big question left is, do we have a rebound later this year to cut are losses, or is this going to be a bust for the full year?" said Sam Dedio, portfolio manager for Julius Baer. -By Geoffrey Rogow, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5360 -By Rob Curran, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5176

[englishman26]

Damn I covered all my shorts today and everything!

At some point the negativity will get baked in and we'll stop going down. I think that that will be before 10,000.

[wallstreetsedge]

i think our worst will be somewhere around 11600-11800

and we close end of the year around 12200

[Jelly]

Monday, January 21st, 2008

We get no respect. All the foreign markets are tanking right now, leaving us in their dust. Here we sit, with no way lose more money when everybody else gets to.

It's not fair.

[englishman26]

Monday, January 21st, 2008

We get no respect. All the foreign markets are tanking right now, leaving us in their dust. Here we sit, with no way lose more money when everybody else gets to.

It's not fair.

Don't worry - we'll get our chance tomorrow!

http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/global/arrow-green-blue.gif FUTURES (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html)
VALUE CHANGE% CHANGE
Dow 11,592.00 -514.00 -4.25
S&P 500 1,265.10 -60.20 -4.54
NASDAQ 1,773.50 -76.00 -4.11

[pa-sale]

My accounts value stays the same on a monday?!?! WOW THANKS MLK.. First week-day I am not losing money in a while.

[xpiratesxcorex]

tomorrow is going to be pretty brutal.. I think I'll turn to the FXP but I'll get some fun with my long AAPL and PBR for the loss!
YES!! I CAN'T WAIT!

[freakscene]

I think the end of the year has to do a lot with who is elected as president. Futures are pointing to Barack Obama, in this scenario I predict the Dow will close around 13,500, or roughly a 5% gain from close on Friday. If McCain wins I predict the Dow closing above 14,000-14,300 easy. As long as the ticket is McCain/Huckabee the GOP should have a pretty solid chance at capturing the presidency, which spells good news for the markets. Barack clearly has no grasp on economic principles, so an Obama/(Bayh,Clark,Richardson,whoever) win would only mean a market downturn.

We'll see.

i agree with much of this. the market doesnt want to see the bolsheviks regain the white house, while in control of the senate and house.

if that happens, i dont know that aiki put a low enough number from which to choose. ;)

[aiki14]

i agree with much of this. the market doesnt want to see the bolsheviks regain the white house, while in control of the senate and house.

if that happens, i dont know that aiki put a low enough number from which to choose. ;)
You can be sure I didn't since I didn't post the poll. :proud:

[wallstreetsedge]

im on point :)

[cramerica1972]

i agree with much of this. the market doesnt want to see the bolsheviks regain the white house, while in control of the senate and house.

if that happens, i dont know that aiki put a low enough number from which to choose. ;)who care about what or who wall streeet want to win,they arent the only ones voting,i wish they would put the interest of america ahead of their own agendas such as manipulating the fed to cut rates by tanking the markets.and if the market isnt happy about the cut,they send it down 300 points :thumpdown:

[englishman26]

who care about what or who wall streeet want to win,they arent the only ones voting,i wish they would put the interest of america ahead of their own agendas such as manipulating the fed to cut rates by tanking the markets.and if the market isnt happy about the cut,they send it down 300 points :thumpdown:

Or up 300 for no apparent reason. :top:


Look, cramerica, it's not a conspiracy, it's just emotion and it's hard to read. You need a system and you need to stop blaming everyone else's system for your failures.:eek2:

[cramerica1972]

Or up 300 for no apparent reason. :top:


Look, cramerica, it's not a conspiracy, it's just emotion and it's hard to read. You need a system and you need to stop blaming everyone else's system for your failures.:eek2:i blame englishman and tony blair for my failures :thumpdown::biggrin:

[englishman26]

i blame englishman and tony blair for my failures :thumpdown::biggrin:

:eviltongue:


On a thread related note, it's interesting that if you look back at the history of the VIX, even though it spiked this week to a level similar to that last august, the volatility/fear indicated in past spikes was much higher - eg. oct. 1997, oct. 1998, sept. 2001, practically the whole of 2002! So I'd argue that if we're going to be in recession, the market has not priced it in yet.

[Horsefish]

Try as I am, I just can't find a catalyst that will boost this market. The candidates are pumping money into the economy, but that is a drop in the bucket. If the Dems. manage to bail out of Iraq that's about a trillion dollars that will come out of defense spending (borrowing and spending). The end of 2009 won't look pretty in that case. End of 2008?.......dow 13200 if that.:thumpdown:

[rajpal]

Dow low will be at 12,000, and will finesh by 2008 at 14,000.

[Vigile]

Honestly? I don't know and neither does anyone else.

What I do know is that the Dow, the S&P and arguably the Naz, are all in nasty downtrends.

Right now the risk of picking a bottom is far, far greater than risk involved when selling at resistance on the bounces.

Late January saw a light capitulation event, but I highly, highly doubt it was the final capitulation in this bear market. January lows are likely to be retested at some point over the next few months and frankly, I doubt they will hold.

The way to profit from the market isn't to pick tops or bottoms or to try and guess where the market will be by year's end. The way to profit is to pay attention to where prices are in relation to the broader trend and assess risk accordingly. Take it FWIW

[smartinvestor30]

What do you think the range will be this year, and where will it finish.

I predict it will finish the year at 14,389 or a gain of 8.5% from open on 2 jan
The Low will be 12,032 or down 6% from todays close, the High 14,919 or up 12.5% from open 2 Jan.

Anyone want to opine?

By December you will see it at 13,500. It's hard to say though since we don't know the breadth of the damage in the lending industry. Who know what other trouble the banks are in, what other trouble the dollar will face. What will happen with taxes, how will the election affect market sentiment?

It's hard to say but I think we are at a GREAT buying opportunity!! It's like 1987, buy now be happy 10 years out. :santaclaus:

[michael wry]

sorry to be so late ..but i just found this site...i have had a 10,000 price target on the DJIA since 12/07...and still have that as MY target...i believe we will settle in @ 11,333.33 on a BIG RALLY in late Dec.08...My data suggests low will be 9,680 on or about 10/21/08...thanks for your TIME. michael wry

[larry123]

Maybe do you like a live trading video ... very nice for me :D

good gain guys!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1mILSGeXfgs

:dito:

[kingfisher]

sorry to be so late ..but i just found this site...i have had a 10,000 price target on the DJIA since 12/07...and still have that as MY target...i believe we will settle in @ 11,333.33 on a BIG RALLY in late Dec.08...My data suggests low will be 9,680 on or about 10/21/08...thanks for your TIME. michael wry

After reviewing all previous post this is the one that appeares to be closest to my next target, thats all I can do at this point. 11200 next?

Good Job Michael we shall see if your 10K plays out, I hope not!

[Assault on Reason]

Low will be at 9,500. Will finish at 10,250

[Hirsch]

A low of somewhere around 11,000. Not for a while though, unless more of financials and pretty much Wall Street starts following suit with BSC. As for the high, 13,500 to 14,000+ seems likely, but 13,000s in general seem much more realistic at this point in time.

Seems like this monday and week will be quite an important one: FED meeting (how much more bps are going to be taken off, etc.), learn what BSC's actions will be now with the collateral given (if they'll get bought out, etc.), Visa IPO, and on and on. Pretty much this week will save or break the market? Yes, no?

[smartinvestor30]

What do you think the range will be this year, and where will it finish.

I predict it will finish the year at 14,389 or a gain of 8.5% from open on 2 jan
The Low will be 12,032 or down 6% from todays close, the High 14,919 or up 12.5% from open 2 Jan.

Anyone want to opine?

I remember this thread from Back in January!!! I'm bumping it so everyone can see what they said. :mrgreen:

[John Law]

By the end of the year, there will be no Dow index, people will have reverted to trading beaver pelts and bushels of corn for houses.

[Jelly]

By the end of the year, there will be no Dow index, people will have reverted to trading beaver pelts and bushels of corn for houses.

"For what is your life? It is even a vapor that appears for a little time and then vanishes away."

Kinda like when I fart.

*Very Zen, John

[englishman26]

it will finish the yr at 10,000,the market is way overvalued IMHO,it was HOUSING that spurred the market to 13,000.

This is looking like a pretty good bet about now!

[dukhunter99]

I think the whole economy is being manipulated by the price of oil. I'll bet that over 75% of the work force can say that the company they work for has made gas cutting measures which ultimately affects the consumer. The price of oil effects every aspect of our lives. Myself alone have cut out two fishing trips to Lake Erie which I normally spend $100.00 on food, $150.00 on lodging, $50.00 on bait, and yes, $50.00 on beverages for each trip. Thats $350.00 per trip and $700 a year that isn't going in some business owners pocket because of gas. In turn, the business owner has to cut costs to make up for the loss. This normally means cutting man hours. It is a trickle down effect that starts with a fishing trip. Its all about oil! The stock market will reflect the cost of oil. I don't think anyone can predict the Dow unless they can predict the cost of oil.

[smartinvestor30]

This is looking like a pretty good bet about now!

And he said this back in January! Did anyone think it would be this bad. 10,000 is still wrong though. I think it will be bouncing between 12,000 and 13,000 and finish in there by the end of the year. In January of 2009 we will see a 400 drop in one day and be back below 13,000

[cramerica1972]

And he said this back in January! Did anyone think it would be this bad. 10,000 is still wrong though. I think it will be bouncing between 12,000 and 13,000 and finish in there by the end of the year. In January of 2009 we will see a 400 drop in one day and be back below 13,000if you watch CNBC and read papers like the WSJ like i do occasionally and see the housing market tumble,then yea you could have known it would get this bad,BSC unleashed a ballistic missle on wallstreet.Now we all know that the credit card market is the next missle that will hit wallstreet.BTW,can someone on here call goldman sachs and tell them to shut the heck up?????

[john_for_u80]

"Credit card market is the next missile"

I agree if people have less income and increasing debt, CC company will be screwed!

[cramerica1972]

"Credit card market is the next missile"

I agree if people have less income and increasing debt, CC company will be screwed!john,credit card defaults are way up now b/c ppl have less $$$$ b/c of gas prices.people are choosing between the credit card or gas,they choose gas,also they are spending $$$$ that they dont have with the CC.Visa & MA could be hit hard.

[smartinvestor30]

if you watch CNBC and read papers like the WSJ like i do occasionally and see the housing market tumble,then yea you could have known it would get this bad,BSC unleashed a ballistic missle on wallstreet.Now we all know that the credit card market is the next missle that will hit wallstreet.BTW,can someone on here call goldman sachs and tell them to shut the heck up?????

True there was some "panic" and I was worried as well. In fact I thought there might be a run on the banks! It's good to know that we are going to make it just fine. As I said, I think you are still off calling it at 10,000. I think you were being too bearish at the time. I don't know if you want to change that figure now. Personally I'm going to say 12-13K. I called 13500 back then but we would be lucky to be there. I'll say 12,500 and settle half way between.

[pa-sale]

Dow will end at 13,560. High will be 14,210.. low will be 11,910. Its almost 7:30 am here in spain.. too early for me to do the percentages..

I hope I am wrong.

Damn, well i am ~60 points wrong already.. I will revise... Low will be 10,625.24. We will finish at 13,000.

I guess I will read up on shorting....


Cheers,


Adam

[madcowdisease]

i think our worst will be somewhere around 11600-11800

and we close end of the year around 12200

I'm beginning to agree. If oil does not come down, or worse, continues its accent we will see corporate earnings suffer - just look at how Wall St is taking P&G out behind the woodshed. I believe we are seeing the incipient stages Wall St. thinking the same thing. I'm not predicting it goes down in a straight line as there will be oversold bounces along the way but things do not look good.

You've got record oil, a slowing economy, and the credit write downs are still coming and will continue into 2009. I see the DJIA dipping in to the upper 11,000s at some point and finishing the year somewhere in the low to mid-12,000s.

I think the more pertinent question is where will the S&P finish since it is more reflective of the economey as a whole versus the 30 companies that make up the DJIA. Anyone think it could go below 1,200?

[wallstreetsedge]

thanks for pulling that quote up.. i was about to start looking for it to see what i had set my idea to...

the end of the year, i still think 12,200

however, the low, i believe will be around 11,200

[cramerica1972]

not far to go til 11,000:confused:

[wallstreetsedge]

someone today was saying they think it goes to 10,8...
i really dont think so.. its possible but imo its highly unlikely.. what do you guys think

[Horsefish]

By the end of the year, there will be no Dow index, people will have reverted to trading beaver pelts and bushels of corn for houses.

Nothing more needs to be said.

I do have corn, tomatoes, and green peppers growing in the back yard. I may just be rich and don't know it.

[aiki14]

Nothing more needs to be said.

I do have corn, tomatoes, and green peppers growing in the back yard. I may just be rich and don't know it.

So your hedge is out there by the hedge? I am long cukes, various peppers, watermelon, some kind of beans my wife planted, greens we feed the bearded dragons, and like 6 kinds of tomato's. The DJIA be damned, I'm playing the veg hedge.

[John Law]

We joke, but I am hearing that the San Joaquin Valley, the major source of lettuce in the U.S. is so water-deprived, farmers are switching to fruit and nut trees en masse. I think we are going to see more people growing their own veggies.

As for me, I am having a bumper crop of strawberries currently, and I plan to eat strawberry shortcake while Rome burns. :)

[freakscene]

We joke, but I am hearing that the San Joaquin Valley, the major source of lettuce in the U.S. is so water-deprived, farmers are switching to fruit and nut trees en masse. I think we are going to see more people growing their own veggies.

As for me, I am having a bumper crop of strawberries currently, and I plan to eat strawberry shortcake while Rome burns. :)


We grow our own garlic (5 flavors), tomatoes, pickles, peppers, zukes, blueberries, raspberries, apples and paw paws.

im working on buying a farm soon to become mostly grocery store independent.

[cramerica1972]

What Is A Paw Paw?

[Gordo]

What Is A Paw Paw?

http://www.crfg.org/pubs/ff/pawpaw.html

[englishman26]

Wow - we only have enough space to grow a few herbs, lemons, and tomatoes!

Strawberries seem to be exploding in California at the moment! Doesn't that mean I'm supposed to short strawberries on a supply/demand basis? Or should I just shortcake them with John??

Btw - 10,800 and 1235 (S&P) look very likely now. Although it seems that with the volume as low as it is, there could be a sudden huge rally next week. I'll be selling it if there is!

[wallstreetsedge]

i agree with you on shorting on rallies... this is the first time in a long time that institutions have been pulling money out of the market and running towards bonds