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View Full Version : Random Thoughts on a Down 100+ Friday


Seamus
01-04-2008, 12:48 PM
What a way to start the year, hopefully it will make the end of 2008 show a better than expected finish.
1) Does INTC deserve to give up all of it's gains since May/June? I see a better market for computers now than I did last year. Quad processors, ect!
2) GS is still getting pulled down with the other banks undertow, sucks to be a pretty house in a bad neighborhood! Every talking head on TV says that the banks will be back mid year time frame, the trick is to stay out of the “house of pain” and pick the bottom. Unfortunately I am averaging down to modest positions as things continue to drop.
3) AAPL, it seems more realistic at these levels, what would be the catalyst though to move it back to 120? This is a long way to go before you can not own tech at the end of May. I would like 185, may not make it.
4) BA, how can a weak US dollar, leading edge development of a new generation composite aircraft a great answer for $100 a barrel oil keep this stock 1.8% above their 1 year low. Not to mention the backlog they have both in aircraft and defense.
5) AUY is pretty volatile, wow it has moved way up yesterday and today way down! FCX a favorite of mine is languishing higher than I want to buy at, I was hoping to add more as I look for more consolidation in this sector. I use to own RTP, and FCX is very similar.
6) Oil, the talking heads still have me frustrated, overheated sector? With $100 a barrel oil and nobody in the US willing to look for more domestically? COP has increased their oil production this last quarter announced yesterday with a squeeze in the refining cost, so they are down +$ 2 today.

To me it is a good time to have cash on had for these volatile days!

atanas
01-04-2008, 04:24 PM
Trend is your friend....
If the market is going down don't try to fight it.... Short stocks and don't own them......

In general I think volatility index is pretty high and I would expect a small rally upwards within the next 10 days......
I think we are getting oversold....

Averaging down financials is a good idea but it is a very unclear area. I wouldn't touch them till I see some reverse movement even If I loose the bottoms... At least wait for them to cut the dividends... and then you can start buying.

Retail the same.... Still room to fall...

I don't know but for some reason I don't even like oil companies at this moment... I would wait till the bubble with the oil ends and we see a more reasonable price.

Last if there is something that looks safe(to me) at the moment is agriculture and maybe minerals....