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thekube
12-27-2007, 05:55 PM
Hello, I haven't been trading all that long, and I've made many mistakes already. For instance, last year I tried to catch some AMD and Sandisk shares on the way down hoping to make some quick money on a bounce. Oops.

However, I recently "got it all back" thanks to my friend Apple, and have made good buys on Intel, Best Buy, and a few others. I have been making very risky investments so far since I'm in my 20's and have a very high tolerance for risk, and I've played a lot of Texas Holem' Poker, which has caused me to think in terms of "going all in" more often than I should. I'm trying to reflect on what I've done so far and am trying to decide how to invest for the new year. I'd like to, ya know, maybe do things like diversify. Yes I know it sounds dumb, but I've went all in on the Apple several times and it's always worked out.

I recently read some of the popular books in the bookstore, such as "The Little Book That Beats The Market", and have also been playing with the tool on MagicFormulaInvesting and the SmartMoney calculator to get some ideas on what stocks might be undervalued.

Here is the list I have so far, with the stock's current price and market cap:

Accenture Ltd. ACN 36.97 27.91B
Best Buy Co., Inc. BBY 52.43 21.89B
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. BBBY 28.93 7.66B
Oilsands Quest Inc. BQI 4.20 860.60M
Cisco Systems, Inc. CSCO 27.76 168.48B
General Moly, Inc. GMO 12.42 707.78M
Hewlett-Packard Company HPQ 51.89 133.56B
Intel Corporation INTC 26.95 157.52B
Altria Group, Inc. MO 76.59 161.32B
Starbucks Corporation SBUX 20.47 14.96B
Target Corporation TGT 51.00 42.38B
Take-Two Interactive Software TTWO 18.75 1.39B
Viacom, Inc. VIA.B 43.71 28.68B
Xerox Corporation XRX 16.29 15.06B

I like Best Buy and Intel since their competitors (Circuit City and
AMD) are sucking badly. If their competitors collapse even more, it's
monopoly time, which = mo money. The fair value calculator tells me Best Buy should be at $66. Also Intel will continue to be a big provider of chips to AAPL, including many new rumored mobile devices, which would be a big growth opportunity for them.

Bed Bath and Beyond's market cap is only 7.6 billion, even though
their total revenue for 2007 alone will be about that much. The
calculator says $46, even though BBBY is currently at 28 and change.

BQI and GMO are speculative ones that I hear about all of the time.

Cisco and Hewlett Packard seem like undervalued, safe companies that earn a lot more money than Apple, even though their market cap is less.

Altria seems like a safe stock that pays a big dividend.

Starbucks - I haven't been good with the knife catching approach, but I can't help but think Starbucks is going to make a comeback given that I constantly see people buying 4-5 dollar coffee drinks and their stores are everywhere.

Target - currently at 51, supposedly has a fair value of about 70. People hate Wal Mart.

Take Two Interactive - Grant Theft Auto 4 is coming out next year,
should be a mega-hit.

Viacom (VIA.B) - MTV, BET, Comedy Central, Rock Star games, undervalued?

As you can tell by my blips, I don't know all that much, other than these companies seem like solid money-makers. So say you are in your mid-twenties, and have managed to save about $40,000 that you want to invest. Does the portfolio above look good? What is it missing? What do I have too much of? Should I just go all-in on Apple again (j/k...sort of)? Hopefully you guys can give me some feedback on the stocks above and don't just dismiss me as a retard :).

TonyM
12-27-2007, 06:28 PM
You used the terms 'trading' and 'investing' in your post, you need to first establish which of the two you are doing. If you are doing both, how much of the $40k is dedicated to each? (you should have a separate trading and investment portfolio)

Do a search on portfolio and the member Aiki14, there is a thread about an investment portfolio that contains some good information you may find useful.

Edit: You seem to be using analysis geared toward investments, if you are in fact trading that type of analysis it probably won't be too beneficial, depending on the trade hold period you are using.

rkahn
12-27-2007, 06:49 PM
thekube --

I have generally categorized the companies that you mentioned.

Accenture Ltd. Business Svcs
Best Buy Co., Inc. Retail - tech
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Retail - specialty
Oilsands Quest Inc. Oil & Gas
Cisco Systems, Inc. peripherals - tech
General Moly, Inc. Metal Mining
Hewlett-Packard Company peripherals - tech
Intel Corporation Semis
Altria Group, Inc. Tobacco
Starbucks Corporation Restaurant
Target Corporation Retail - dept/discount
Take-Two Interactive Software Tech - Software/Programming
Viacom, Inc. Broadcasting & TV
Xerox Corporation Tech - Office Equip

I think that a bunch of these are great companies which will give good returns. In an effort to "diversify" though, it may be wise to invest in a few non-cyclical industries / bellwethers. Altria may be a good pick that fills this 'requirement' since tobacco is one of the most inelastic products out there. In addition, you may want to look into have a few companies like Proctor & Gamble, Unilever etc that will show relative strength during downturns, recessions, etc.

The defensive stocks that I am recommending will not give you spectacular returns that a smaller and more risky company could, but they will give you a good ROI every year plus nice dividends.

netwrangler
12-27-2007, 08:43 PM
thekube --

I have generally categorized the companies that you mentioned.

Accenture Ltd. Business Svcs
Best Buy Co., Inc. Retail - tech
Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. Retail - specialty
Oilsands Quest Inc. Oil & Gas
Cisco Systems, Inc. peripherals - tech
General Moly, Inc. Metal Mining
Hewlett-Packard Company peripherals - tech
Intel Corporation Semis
Altria Group, Inc. Tobacco
Starbucks Corporation Restaurant
Target Corporation Retail - dept/discount
Take-Two Interactive Software Tech - Software/Programming
Viacom, Inc. Broadcasting & TV
Xerox Corporation Tech - Office Equip

I think that a bunch of these are great companies which will give good returns. In an effort to "diversify" though, it may be wise to invest in a few non-cyclical industries / bellwethers. Altria may be a good pick that fills this 'requirement' since tobacco is one of the most inelastic products out there. In addition, you may want to look into have a few companies like Proctor & Gamble, Unilever etc that will show relative strength during downturns, recessions, etc.

The defensive stocks that I am recommending will not give you spectacular returns that a smaller and more risky company could, but they will give you a good ROI every year plus nice dividends.I wouldn't put all my Oil & Gas eggs in the BQI basket.

I am long BQI, but treat it as speculative. In the energy field, I am also long CVX, which I regard as a better "first choice" in energy than BQI. CVX also seems like a better fit with the rest of your selections.

Just my opinion, my crystal ball is chronically unfaithful to me.

rkahn
12-27-2007, 10:57 PM
netwrangler makes a great point about BQI and putting money in a more solid company like CVX. I would also recommend looking at XLE, the energy select sector spider (Exchange Traded Fund). I'm almost positive that XLE has outperformed both XOM and CVX since its inception in '98.

XLE holds CVX and XOM as well as ~30 other energy companies.

Imperator
12-28-2007, 04:45 AM
check out ACAS as a long term, dividend producing cash machine

netwrangler
12-28-2007, 08:44 AM
netwrangler makes a great point about BQI and putting money in a more solid company like CVX. I would also recommend looking at XLE, the energy select sector spider (Exchange Traded Fund). I'm almost positive that XLE has outperformed both XOM and CVX since its inception in '98.

XLE holds CVX and XOM as well as ~30 other energy companies.You beat me to it, rkahn.

I was thinking about adding XLE to the list of choices. It is a great way to 'cover' the O&G waterfront with one investment vehicle.
Course, that's what sector ETFs are supposed to do — cover a sector.