TonyM
12-27-2007, 10:50 AM
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., the biggest U.S. bank, may cut its dividend by 40 percent to preserve capital and write down more fixed-income securities than it has told investors to expect, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The New York-based bank may write off $18.7 billion in collateralized debt obligations such as subprime mortgages, up from its Nov. 4 estimate of as much as $11 billion, Goldman's William F. Tanona wrote in a note dated Dec. 26. Citigroup, which paid out 54 cents each quarter this year, will have to raise $6.2 billion in extra capital to reach its target, they wrote.
``It will be a couple of quarters before the current credit crisis is fully digested by the markets,'' wrote Tanona, who has a ``sell'' rating on the stock. ``Given the magnitude of the writedowns we assume and Citi's remaining exposure, we believe the firm has a serious need to preserve or raise additional capital.''
Chief Executive Officer Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince III stepped down last month and the bank got a $7.5 billion investment from Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund after predicting further losses. Writedowns at the biggest banks are still likely to be ``significantly larger than investors are anticipating,'' Tanona wrote, doubling his estimates for charges at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co.
Citigroup, which has fallen 45 percent this year in New York trading, rose 25 cents to $30.70 before U.S. exchanges opened.
Citigroup tumbled 8.1 percent in New York trading on Nov. 1 after CIBC World Markets analyst Meredith Whitney said it may have to trim its dividend. Deutsche Bank AG analyst Michael Mayo also predicted a dividend cut, saying the investment from Abu Dhabi is ``probably not enough'' to absorb credit losses.
Dividend Yield
The company pays a dividend equal to 7.1 percent of its stock price, more than twice the 3.3 percent yield of the average financial stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Executives have said they intend to maintain the payout.
The biggest financial institutions have had to mark down more than $80 billion after a surge in U.S. subprime mortgage defaults prompted investors to shun higher-risk debt. Citigroup, which picked former Morgan Stanley President Vikram Pandit to succeed Prince, will still have about $24.5 billion in CDO investments after the writedown, Goldman said.
Goldman analyst Tanona estimated that JPMorgan, the third- biggest U.S. bank, may have a CDO-related writedown of $3.4 billion in the final quarter, up from a previous estimate of $1.7 billion. Merrill, which replaced CEO Stan O'Neal with John Thain, may write off $11.5 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of $6 billion, Tanona said in his note.
``Many of the December year-end firms are likely to be more aggressive with their marks,'' Tanona wrote. ``Particularly those with high levels of exposure such as Citi and Merrill Lynch, both of whom have new CEOs at their helms.''
Separately, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz estimated in a note dated today that Merrill will have a CDO- related writedown of $10 billion in the fourth quarter.
The New York-based bank may write off $18.7 billion in collateralized debt obligations such as subprime mortgages, up from its Nov. 4 estimate of as much as $11 billion, Goldman's William F. Tanona wrote in a note dated Dec. 26. Citigroup, which paid out 54 cents each quarter this year, will have to raise $6.2 billion in extra capital to reach its target, they wrote.
``It will be a couple of quarters before the current credit crisis is fully digested by the markets,'' wrote Tanona, who has a ``sell'' rating on the stock. ``Given the magnitude of the writedowns we assume and Citi's remaining exposure, we believe the firm has a serious need to preserve or raise additional capital.''
Chief Executive Officer Charles O. ``Chuck'' Prince III stepped down last month and the bank got a $7.5 billion investment from Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund after predicting further losses. Writedowns at the biggest banks are still likely to be ``significantly larger than investors are anticipating,'' Tanona wrote, doubling his estimates for charges at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Merrill Lynch & Co.
Citigroup, which has fallen 45 percent this year in New York trading, rose 25 cents to $30.70 before U.S. exchanges opened.
Citigroup tumbled 8.1 percent in New York trading on Nov. 1 after CIBC World Markets analyst Meredith Whitney said it may have to trim its dividend. Deutsche Bank AG analyst Michael Mayo also predicted a dividend cut, saying the investment from Abu Dhabi is ``probably not enough'' to absorb credit losses.
Dividend Yield
The company pays a dividend equal to 7.1 percent of its stock price, more than twice the 3.3 percent yield of the average financial stock in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Executives have said they intend to maintain the payout.
The biggest financial institutions have had to mark down more than $80 billion after a surge in U.S. subprime mortgage defaults prompted investors to shun higher-risk debt. Citigroup, which picked former Morgan Stanley President Vikram Pandit to succeed Prince, will still have about $24.5 billion in CDO investments after the writedown, Goldman said.
Goldman analyst Tanona estimated that JPMorgan, the third- biggest U.S. bank, may have a CDO-related writedown of $3.4 billion in the final quarter, up from a previous estimate of $1.7 billion. Merrill, which replaced CEO Stan O'Neal with John Thain, may write off $11.5 billion, compared with an earlier estimate of $6 billion, Tanona said in his note.
``Many of the December year-end firms are likely to be more aggressive with their marks,'' Tanona wrote. ``Particularly those with high levels of exposure such as Citi and Merrill Lynch, both of whom have new CEOs at their helms.''
Separately, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Brad Hintz estimated in a note dated today that Merrill will have a CDO- related writedown of $10 billion in the fourth quarter.