View Full Version : Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 10/09/2009
forexpros
09-10-2009, 05:52 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 10, 2009
Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns
Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST
Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/sharpening-your-edge:-recognizing-the-candlestick-patterns-11135)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The rise that we expect to be in a 5-wave mode, is still developing nicely, reaching 1.46 for the first time this year. We still believe it has enough strength to reach the top of the channel, which is slowly approaching 1.47. The resistance which stopped yesterday's rise is actually 1.4592 (yesterday's high was 1.4600), and we will adopt it as resistance of the day. A break here would indicate strength that has the ability to lead the Euro to the top of the channel, which is currently at 1.4665. And if this resistance is broken there will be nothing separating the price from December's unforgettable top: 1.4720. As for short-term support it is 1.4548, if broken, the door will be open to a correction of this strong and sharp rise, which is expected to lead to testing yesterday's low 1.4465 and after that 1.4395: Fibonacci 50% for the whole move up from 1.4190 last week to 1.4600 yesterday.
Support:
1.4548: short-term support.
1.4465: yesterday's low.
1.4395: Fibonacci support 50% for short-term.
Resistance:
1.4592: short-term resistance.
1.4665: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Finally, we have tested the most important support level in the current price area: 91.73-91.76, which is the small support area that holds within the lows of July 8th, 10th, and 13th. Price hardly held above it after reaching 91.60. And we think that breaking it would have enough influence to "finally" accelerate the downtrend, and would be followed by a move down to 90.90 or even 89.69. As for attempts to go higher, they would not mean anything without a break of Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 92.20, which stopped the rise twice, during the American & Asian sessions. If this resistance is broken, we think the USDJPY will target areas above 93 such as 93.42, and if this one is also broken, the next stop would probably be 94.16.
Support:
91.73-91.76: Strong, important support area that combines July 8th, 10th & 13th lows.
90.90: Oct 24th 2008 important bottom.
90.40: Feb 13th low.
Resistance:
92.20: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%, the resistance that stopped the rise twice during the American & Asian resistance.
92.74: the previous important support that was broken this week.
93.42: AUG 21st low, and SEP 1st high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-14-2009, 06:10 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 14, 2009
Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns
Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST
Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.
Click here (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/sharpening-your-edge:-recognizing-the-candlestick-patterns-11135) to join the webinar.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As we have expected, the rise stopped between 1.4620 & 1.4667, and from there we have seen a correction that reached 1.4515 until this very moment. We still believe that this correction is targeting 1.4459 at the very least, and that it could go all the way to 1.4357. But, before we feel over-excited for this correction we should see a break of short-term support 1.4501, and after that we can talk about the ideal targets such as 1.4459, 1.4408, or 1.4357. On the other hand, the resistance that should not be broken to keep the big probability of this correction is Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4589, staying below it will favor this correction, while breaking it will mean another attempt to reach the top of the rising channel which is at 1.4671 for today.
Support:
1.4501: Thursday's low.
1.4459: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190.
1.4408: Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190. And if this level is broken 1.4357 would become the most important support for determining short-term trend, and may be medium-term as well.
Resistance:
1.4589: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
1.4671: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The downtrend is still advancing as expected: smoothly, and reaching new lows, and slowly moving towards the 90 level. And after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA 100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month's peak. But in order for the downtrend to continue without major difficulties, we should not go higher than that. On the other hand we still believe that we are heading towards areas below 90, the first of which is 89.68/78.
Support:
90.29: short-term support.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
89.20: Feb 5th low.
Resistance:
90.67: intraday top & bottom from Friday.
91.22: intraday top.
91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move from 93.28, and the moving average SMA100.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-15-2009, 06:38 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 15, 2009
Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns
Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST
Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/sharpening-your-edge:-recognizing-the-candlestick-patterns-11135)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro held above the suggested support 1.4501 and rallied to a new top for this trend at 1.4650, which is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is currently at 1.4682 and this will be a curtail resistance, that could stop the current rise and force a correction of good size. We favor the formation of a top in these areas as long as the Euro does not break the top of the channel decisively. After that we expect a move down to areas below 1.45. The only thing that could save the Euro from a sizable drop is a clear break above the top of the current channel. The previous 1.4570 resistance will act as the most important support for short-term, and breaking it means the correction is back on track, and is heading to 1.4459 at least, in the next few days.
Support:
1.4570: short-term support.
1.4501: Thursday's low.
1.4459: Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the whole move up from 1.4190.
Resistance:
1.4682: the top of the current channel on the hourly chart.
1.4720: the unforgettable top of December 2008.
1.4774: previous well known resistance/support.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
As this report expected yesterday, the dollar-Yen moved up slightly in a small correction. Our view is still as it was in yesterday's report when we said: "after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month's peak)." The only changes to this view are that the descending trendline is now below Fibonacci 61.8%, and that the SMA100 is almost exactly at Fibonacci 38.2%. In order for the downtrend to continue without major difficulties, we should not go higher than these levels. We still believe that we are heading towards areas below 90 after this correction is over, such as the important support area 89.68/78. On the other hand, the rising trendline for this correction is currently at 90.90, which makes it the most important support of the day.
Support:
90.90: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
90.29: short-term support.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
Resistance:
91.22: intraday top.
91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28.
92.10: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-16-2009, 06:54 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 16, 2009
Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns
Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST
Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/sharpening-your-edge:-recognizing-the-candlestick-patterns-11135)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
Reaching the top of the channel at 1.4684, but not breaking it, the Euro is still inside the suggested area for a top. The top of the channel is slowly approaching 1.47, more accurately it is currently at 1.4691. And between here and 1.4720 we have a good resistance that can curb this slow rise. If this happens, we will break 1.4654 and head towards the short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support at 1.4607, which the euro needs to hold above to survive the expected correction. If it does not hold above here, the correction would be already underway, targeting 1.4459 at least, in the next few days. On the other hand, if the euro surprises and breaks the whole 1.4691-1.4720 area, then there would be no reason to believe a correction is going to start from these areas. In this case, we are heading to many resistance levels above 1.48 the first of which is 1.4824.
Support:
1.4654: Asian session low.
1.4607: short-term 61.8% Fibonacci support.
1.4534: Sep 8th high.
Resistance:
1.4691-1.4720: the resistance area between the top of the current channel on the hourly chart, and the unforgettable top of December 2008.
1.4774: previous well known resistance/support.
1.4824: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
We came close to the ideal target for this correction: 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76), and reached 91.63 yesterday. And now, the falling trend channel is exactly at this level, which makes it the most important resistance for today, more important than 92.10. Although the ideal target for the current correction will still be 91.74, there is a possibility to target 92.10, but when we compare these two targets, we find that the most important is 91.74 since it combines a Fibonacci resistance, and a previous support, and even more important the top of the falling channel. As for the support, short-term Fibonacci support at 90.77 has proven its importance when the price bounced from there twice, once before reaching yesterday's high, and once after. We believe that breaking 91.74 or 90.77 is what will decide the direction of the next hours, and may be the next few days. Breaking the resistance 91.74 will take the price up at least to 92.10, and may be to test the top 93.28. Breaking the support 90.77 would mean that the correction is over, and the down trend is back on track targeting 89.78-89.68.
Support:
90.77: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term, which survived twice until now.
90.29: short-term support.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
Resistance:
91.74: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
92.10: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-17-2009, 05:53 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 17, 2009
Premium Webinar - Sharpening Your Edge: Recognizing the Candlestick Patterns
Expert: Andrei Pehar
Date: Thu, Sep 17, 2009, 11:00 EST
Learn to predict where price is likely headed next using the only 6 candlestick patterns you ever need to know. No more need to memorize dozens of patterns or go through stacks of books - just about every other formation you'll run across in your trading is a variation of these basic 6, and once you know them you'll be able to recognize the early warning signs of both continuations and reversals.
Join leading fund manager and trading coach Andrei Pehar for this next exciting installment of the Sharpening Your Edge series.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/sharpening-your-edge:-recognizing-the-candlestick-patterns-11135)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The euro broke above the rising trend channel for the first time, reaching a new high for this year at 1.4746, and leaving any expectation for a correction to start in these areas, in very bad shape. A break to the upside in a rising channel is usually a signal that shows how powerful the uptrend is, which makes it only logical to expect more gains for the European single currency. But it is required to stay above 1.4702 to be able to achieve these gains. If the Euro holds above the broken channel, it would be expected to advance to areas above 1.48, specially 14824 and 1.4880. It is very important to hold above this channel which is at 1.4702 now. If we fall back below this level we could see a good move trying to get far from the top of the channel and targeting 1.4641 and below. It is very important to keep an eye on 1.4702 today!
Support:
1.4702: the top of the broken channel.
1.4641: yesterday's low.
1.4560: Sep 15th high.
Resistance:
1.4766: previous daily high
1.4824: previous daily high.
1.4880: previous daily low.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen broke the 90.77 support and reached a new bottom only pips below the previous one, before it managed to bounce up. What happened yesterday had two effects. First: the area containing the previous bottom 90.19 & yesterday's bottom 90.11 has provided itself as a good support area. Second: the calculation of Fibonacci resistance has slightly changed, and the new Fibonacci retracement levels are 91.32, 91.70 and 92.07. the return above 91 after reaching yesterday's low shows that the dollar has not given up yet, and that it could try again to reach one of the Fibonacci levels mentioned above. The top of the channel is currently at 91.49 (between Fibonacci 38.2% and 61.8% levels). Short-term important support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from yesterday's low, which is at 90.58 and breaking it would probably mean we are going to beak 90.11 and reach a new low below 90 before the weekend.
Support:
90.58: Fibonacci 61.8% support for short-term.
90.11: short-term support.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
Resistance:
91.70: Fibonacci 50% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the same move.
92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-21-2009, 06:55 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 21, 2009
Free webinar tomorrow - Market Fundamentals 1
Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST
Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/market-fundamentals-1-11136)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro is approaching at this very moment the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and in the same area we noticed an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately, which adds more importance to this level. Reaching this area is the most important test for the EURUSD since reaching 1.4766 last Thursday. If it survives here, there will be a chance to test the most important resistance for the short-term 1.4723 which is the falling trendline from last week's high, and if this resistance is also taken, we will have a good chance of seeing the top of the channel which is currently at 1.4824, this week. On the other hand, breaking this channel would be a clear signal of weakness, and would mean that we are currently in a correction for the whole up-move from 1.4176 to 1.4766, which is going to target 1.4541 at least, and probably areas below it, the most important of which are 1.4471 & 1.4401.
Support:
1.4660: the bottom of the current rising channel, and an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately.
1.4579: previous support.
1.4514: Sep 14th high.
Resistance:
1.4723: the falling trendline from Thursday's high 1.4766.
1.4774: previous daily high.
1.4824: previous daily low.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen is approaching Fibonacci resistance 91.70, at this very moment, for the third time, and we could see a break in the next few hours, especially after breaking the falling trend channel on Friday, and closing above it. After this break, the most important resistance became 92.07, which is the level that the price should break to show seriousness in breaking the channel. If we manage to surpass it, more upside action is to be expected, reaching, or at least approaching the resistance area 92.70-92.80. Today's short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, which is currently at 91.31, and breaking it would be evidence of weakness, and moving to areas below 90, where some targets await, the first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78. We do not see USDJPY free from pressure without breaking 92.07.
Support:
91.31: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low.
90.71: intraday support/resistance from last week.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
Resistance:
92.07: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last move falling from 93.28, the most important resistance for today.
92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
93.28: Sep 7th high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-22-2009, 06:22 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 22, 2009
Free webinar today - Market Fundamentals 1
Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Sep 22, 2009, 11:00 EST
Foundations of Fundamental Analysis. Understanding the meaning of price and a review of the academic theory on foreign exchange rate determination.
Click here to join the webinar (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/market-fundamentals-1-11136).
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro held around the secondary Fibonacci support of 23.6%, which is in the 1.4620 area, and went back up to above 1.47. The "limited" move of yesterday had "limited" effect. We have re-drawn the channel, to make it comprehensive, and to include all the price behavior since the beginning of the month. The bottom of this new channel is exactly at Fibonacci 38.2% support 1.4541, which makes this support a candidate to be the decisive area separating positive from negative territory. As for the short-term , the support is 1.4705, and a break here would initiate a correction for the rise from yesterday's low, ideally targeting 1.4656, the support that if broken would open the road to test the most important support for now 1.4541. Short-term resistance is 1.4756 and breaking it is the key to reach 1.48 for the first time this year, where some targets await us, especially 1.4824 and 1.4901.
Support:
1.4656: short-term support.
1.4541: Fibonacci 38.2% for the medium-term, and the bottom of the rising channel from the beginning of the month. The most important support for now, breaking it would mean the end of the uptrend for the medium-term.
1.4471: Fibonacci 50% for medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4756: short-term resistance.
1.4824: previous daily high.
1.4901: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
We have reached 92.50 for the first time in two weeks, after breaking all Fibonacci resistance levels for the last move down. But even that the Dollar-Yen broke them all, it could not hold above 92, returning fast to test the previous resistance 91.60-91.63 which became a support. In the same area, we find the rising trendline from last week's low 90.11, which ads more importance to an already important area. Until this very moment, the support area has held (today's low until now is 91.62). That is why we will keep this area on the lookout. Holding above here will give another chance to reach the resistance area 92.70-92.80, and may be later test the previous top 93.28. Breaking it would be a surprise after yesterday's advance. And if this surprise happens, we would go back to the negative status of this pair, which would gradually lead to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to targets below it, first of which is the support area 89.68-89.78.
Support:
91.60: previous resistance area, and the rising trendline from last week's low.
90.97: intraday support from last week.
91.11: Sep 16th low.
Resistance:
92.17: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
93.28: Sep 7th high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-23-2009, 05:58 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 23, 2009
Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST
A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/the-ichimoku-cloud-11137)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As expected, the Euro reached 1.48 for the first time this year, and also reached the first target suggested in yesterday's report, which leaves the second target 1.4901 ahead of us, could we see it today? The current advance is still climbing (slowly we might add) without showing exhaustion, and the top of the current channel is at 1.49, these thing support the probability of going up. On the other hand, a divergence case on the RSI is developing as we speak, supporting the opposite scenario. These mixed signals could go in harmony if we manage to go up to 1.4901 first then go down to solve the divergence. The most important resistance for short-term is 1.4824, and breaking it is the key to hit 1.4901. the most important support for the short-term is 1.4783, and breaking it would threaten the Euro with a drop to the important 1.4698. Only if we break this support we can start talking about the big correction for the whole move up from 1.4176, because such a discussion before that break would be completely premature.
Support:
1.4783: short-term support.
1.4698: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term (for the rise from 1.4610).
1.4646: Friday's low, and the support area that showed strength recently.
Resistance:
1.4824: previous daily high.
1.4901: previous daily high.
1.4962: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen broke the support area 91.60-91.63 to go back into the negative territory again, and to drop more than 110 pips after the break. With that, we came to the end of the rising adventure that stopped at 92.50, and the downtrend came back to dominate. But, stopping near the support 90.51and holding above it, means that there is an existing possibility for another rise, without breaking 90.51. If price manages to hold above this support, there would be a good chance to test a number of important resistance levels most important of which is 91.74. we prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.
Support:
90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop.
90.11: Sep 16th low.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
Resistance:
91.25: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-24-2009, 06:27 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep 24, 2009
Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST
A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/the-ichimoku-cloud-11137)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As all other majors, the Euro dropped significantly after the Fed, and went back to 1.4685, but it stood its ground and spent the whole Asian session above 1.47. This return could provide us with the chance to retest the falling and broken trendline, inside the rising channel, which is currently at 1.4646, which is the support of the day. Whereas resistance of the day is Fibonacci 61.8% for "post-Fed decline". This is currently at 1.4782. We expect the Euro to spend sometime between those two levels, before breaking one of them. In case we break 1.4646 the Euro would be already in a correction for the whole rise from 1.4176, which would target 1.4588 at least, and could reach 1.4430. On the other hand, breaking 1.4782 would indicate that the "post-Fed decline" is just temporary and limited, and that we will be heading towards 1.4901.
Support:
1.4685: Asian session low.
1.4646: the retest level for the broken falling trendline, inside the rising channel.
1.4588: Fibonacci 38.2% for the rise from 1.4176 to yesterday's top 1.4842.
Resistance:
1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
1.4824: previous daily high.
1.4901: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Not a lot of changes since yesterday, and not a lot to talk about, as the price managed to hold above the important support 90.51, and tried to test the important Fibonacci resistance 91.74, but stopped just below it. Which leaves both the important support and the important resistance from yesterday's report untouched, and we will continue to consider them as the most important levels for today as well. We prefer waiting for a break of 91.74 or 90.51, since we believe that breaking any of those levels will decide the direction of the next move. If we break 91.74, we would be on the road again to 92.50. And if we break 90.51 the downside pressure will come back to drive the price gradually to test (and may be break) the psychological level 90, and to move towards targets below it, first of which is the important support area 89.68-89.78.
Support:
90.51: the previous support that stopped the current drop, most important support for today.
90.11: Sep 16th low.
89.68/78: important support area containing the lows of Feb 11th, 12th & Dec 29th 08.
Resistance:
91.33: short-term resistance.
91.74: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for the time being.
92.70-92.80: previous support area which contains a number of daily lows in the past few months.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-29-2009, 06:55 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Sep. 29, 2009
Free webinar - The Ichimoku Cloud
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST
A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.
Click here to join the webinar (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/the-ichimoku-cloud-11137).
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
Moving steady inside the falling channel on the intraday charts, the Euro approached the top of the channel five times, without breaking it, which indicates that the falling trend (for the short-term is still safe. As long as price does not break this channel to the upside, the short-term downtrend will go on, and try to reach the end of the channel, which is below 1.45, during this week. On the other hand, if price manage to break this channel to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach new tops over 1.48, this week also. The most important resistance is 1.4639, which represents the top of the falling channel. Breaking this "top" will mean that we are on the way to areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776. The most important support is 1.4597, and breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.
Support:
1.4597: short-term support.
1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
Resistance:
1.4639: the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts.
1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week..
1.4776: previous resistance.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The most important support 88.74 held and gave the Dollar-Yen a chance to break the resistance 89.68, and as expected went back above 90. The price stopped accurately (as we can see on the chart) at the previous support 90.20, which provided us with the daily lows for 11th & 16th on the month. That is why 90.20 will be the most important support for today. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. A break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.33, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. The most important support for today is 89.23 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low, and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts. If we break 89.23 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.
Support:
89.23: Fibonacci 50%, and the bottom of the rising trend channel on intraday charts.
88.56: previous intraday support.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
Resistance:
90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
91.33: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
09-30-2009, 09:22 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis, Sep 30, 2009
Free webinar tomorrow - The Ichimoku Cloud
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST
A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/the-ichimoku-cloud-11137)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro stopped just below the most important resistance in yesterday's report 1.4639 (Asian session high was 1.4631). But even though, it is trading now above the falling channel, after it succeeded in breaking it. Still, we can spot a trendline that stopped the Euro, which is the rising trendline from inside the falling channel. We can clearly see that price stopped accurately at this line, running currently at 1.4639, the most important resistance for today as it was for yesterday. If we break it to the upside, the Euro will be free from the falling trend, and will try to reach areas above 1.47, most important of which are 1.4720 and 1.4776, and may be areas above 1.48 later this week. The most important support is 1.4590, which represents the retest level of the channel that was broken during the Asian session. And breaking it means that the falling trend will try to reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430.
Support:
1.4590: the retest level for the falling channel that was broken during the Asian session.
1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
Resistance:
1.4639: the retest level of the rising trendline that was previously broken.
1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
1.4776: previous resistance.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
We did not even come close to 89.23, but on the contrary tried to break 90.20, but could not hold above it more than a few minutes, then returned fast to below 90 again. And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.19, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.
Support:
89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
88.56: previous intraday support.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
Resistance:
90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
90.90: previous intraday support/resistance.
91.19: the limit of the downtrend, the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-01-2009, 07:41 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis, Oct 1, 2009
Free webinar today! - The Ichimoku Cloud
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Thu, Oct 1, 2009, 12:00 EST
A Trend, Volatility and Oscillator combined, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is a unique indicator which gives dynamic support and resistance levels, trend direction/strength, volatility levels and clear/precise rules for entry and exit parameters. Combine all those weapons and you have a powerful method for trading the global markets.
In this webinar we will talk about how you can find filtered intraday trending moves, spot upcoming weaknesses in an instrument, and find unique trading opportunities through Kumo Analysis.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/the-ichimoku-cloud-11137)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro is testing at this very moment the short-term support 1.4563, after dropping hard in the last half hour. This support is the last barrier before testing Fibonacci 50% which is at 1.4509. Short-term resistance is 1.4622, and breaking it would give another attempt to reach 1.47 (after yesterday's attempt). If 1.4563 is broken, then the falling correction will try to reach Fibonacci 50% support at 1.4509, or Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4430. In this case, this support in particular will become the most important support for the medium term, since breaking it would mean that this drop is more than just a correction, and that the uptrend which started at 1.4176 is already over. On the other hand, if we break 1.4622 we will head first to the resistance area that stopped the price twice yesterday and during the Asian session 1.4668-1.4672. We do not expect a lot of trouble here, on the contrary we would expect to pass it, and reach 1.47 and above, especially the important resistance 1.4720.
Support:
1.4563: short-term support.
1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4622: short-term resistance.
1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times late last week.
1.4776: previous resistance.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Yesterday's drop stopped with great accuracy at what we called "the most important support" 89.31 (yesterday's low was 89.34). And today, 90.20 will still be the most important resistance. If the dollar fails to break it, this pair will go back to falling, after that sharp bounce from 88.22. But, a break of 90.20 would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in these areas 90.90. Just above that there is the most important resistance, the limit of the downtrend 91.01, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top, and just below it there is the moving average SMA100. The most important support for today is 89.31 which is Fibonacci 50% for the rise from post-open low. If we break 89.31 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.
Support:
89.31: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
88.56: previous intraday support.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
Resistance:
90.20: the previous support that stopped the current rise, and a support area that includes the daily lows of 11th & 16th of the month.
90.90-91.01: previous intraday support/resistance, plus the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
91.82: previous support/resistance.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
_________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-05-2009, 06:59 AM
Free Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros.com
How To Trade Forex & Swim with the Turtles for Fun and Profit
Hosted by David Hunt of Turtle Trading
Start: Tue, Oct 6, 2009, 09:00 EST/13:00GMT
In February 2007, Original Turtle Trading's Russell Sands created a new system for Forex, based on the principles handed down by Market Wizard Richard Dennis in futures.
This webinar will review the very same Turtle Forex system which generated 200% in 2007 and 196% return in 2008.
Click here (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/how-to-trade-forex---swim-with-the-turtles-for-fun-and-profit-11138) to join
=================
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke the falling trend channel for the short-term, twice, but in the two times it stopped at 1.4646. Which will make this resistance specifically the most important for the short-term. A break here would be a confirmation of the break of the descending channel, and the start of the rise back to areas above 1.47, specially 1.4720. For the next few days, a break of 1.4646, and successfully reaching areas above 1.47, might mean the end of the downtrend falling from 1.4842, and the start of the rise that will challenge this top. The most important support for the short-term is the broken line of the falling channel, and the retest level at 1.4588. It will be the most important support for today because breaking it would mean that the price is back inside the falling channel, which will bring Fibonacci levels 1.4509 & 1.4430 back into focus.
Support:
1.4588: the retest level of the broken channel.
1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
1.4430: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842. The most important support for the medium-term.
1.4358-1.4362: the important support area which include many daily highs and lows, the latest of which were Sep 7th, Aug 24th & 25th highs.
Resistance:
1.4646: short-term resistance that stopped the price twice.
1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
1.4776: previous well known resistance.
GBP USD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/gbp-usd)
As we expected, the Pound broke the 1.5902 support, and reached the first suggested target 1.5812, stopping only 10 pips below it, before it started the rise that reached 1.60 this morning. Stopping at this level in specific has a reason: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is exactly at 1.6000, this will be the most important resistance for today, and will determine the direction of the following hours. Short-term support is 1.5923, and if it's broken, the Pound will continue its decline which touched 1.58, and will try to reach areas below Friday's low 1.5802, with a focus on the possible test the important support area 1.5754-1.5776 again, which will be a very important test if it happens. On the other hand, if a surprise happens and we break 1.6000, the Pound will be on the rise for the short-term at least, to retest Wednesday's high 1.6123, or may be to try and reach Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.6199.
Support:
1.5923: short-term support.
1.5829: intraday support from friday.
1.5754: the bottom of the important support area 1.5754-1.5776.
Resistance:
1.6000: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
1.6073: previous intraday support.
1.6123: Wednesday's high, and if this top it taken, 1.6199 will be the most important resistance for both the short & medium terms.
Forex Trading (http://www.forexpros.com) Analysis written by Munther Marji for Forexpros.com
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-06-2009, 07:25 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 6, 2009
Free webinar today! - How To Trade Forex & Swim with the Turtles for Fun and Profit
Expert: David Hunt
When: Tue, Oct 6, 2009, 09:00 EST
In February 2007, Original Turtle Trading's Russell Sands created a new system for Forex, based on the principles handed down by Market Wizard Richard Dennis in futures.
This webinar will review the very same Turtle Forex system which generated 200% in 2007 and 196% return in 2008.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/how-to-trade-forex---swim-with-the-turtles-for-fun-and-profit-11138)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro accurately reached the retest level that we specified as 1.4588 (yesterday's low 1.4592), and retested the broken channel successfully. Then it started rising and reached the important resistance 1.4720 this morning, which was specified as the most important target in yesterday's report (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4716). The Euro could keep these benefits, and advance even more if price stays above the short-term support 1.4668, which is the rising trendline from Friday's high, on the intraday charts. If we stay above it, there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.
Support:
1.4668: the rising trendline from Friday's low.
1.4592: yesterday's low.
1.4509: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4176 to last week's top 1.4842.
Resistance:
1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
1.4776: previous well known resistance.
1.4824: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
It seems like the Dollar-Yen is moving with in a pattern that looks like a triangle, since in the past 10 days we have seen the formation of 3 descending tops at 90.39, 90.15 & 89.96, and the formation of 3 ascending bottoms 88.22, 88.59 & 88.96. That is why the borders of this pattern (support 88.74 & resistance 89.77) are the most important for the short-term, and breaking either of them is what will give the next move its direction. If we break 98.77, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.66, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. On the other hand, if we break 89.20 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.
Support:
88.74: the lower trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, the most important support for the short-term.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
87.10: 2009 low.
Resistance:
89.77: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
90.66: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
91.63: strong previous resistance.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-07-2009, 07:25 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 7, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/get-to-grips-with-position-sizing-11140)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682, and with that, it stayed for the whole past 24 hours above the important support specified in yesterday's report 1.4668, keeping our positive outlook intact. But even with this new high, things have changed a lot, because the Euro is threatened with a correction for the whole move from 1.4480, after spotting reversal signals on the Japanese candlestick charts: a (Shooting Star) pattern on the hourly chart, and an (Engulfing) pattern on the 4 hour chart. That is why we will drive our attention towards Fibonacci retracement levels for the move from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. But, we will not assume there is a correction underway, before trading below the moving average SMA50, which clearly supported the price since Friday, and is running currently at 1.4682. As long as the price is above the moving average, we will maintain a positive outlook for the short-term, and we believe that there will be another attempt to break 1.4720 and head higher. And although we notice a resistance at 1.4776, we believe that if the Euro breaks 1.4720, then it will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd.
Support:
1.4682: the moving average SMA50, supporting the Euro since Friday.
1.4621: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday.
1.4587: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4480 on Friday to 1.4761 yesterday. In case this support is broken, 1.4509 will be a key support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4720: the resistance area that stopped the Euro from rising 3 times lately.
1.4776: previous well known resistance.
1.4824: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen has tried to break the lower limit of the supposed triangle pattern, but it was not able to overcome Friday's low, if we are to receive a confirmation of the break of the triangle we need to see the price below Friday's low 88.59. That is why this support is the most important for today. On the other hand, the resistance of the day is the upper limit of the triangle formation 89.63. And breaking either of them is what will give the next move its direction. If we break 89.63, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to approach 91 since the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.55, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. On the other hand, if we break 88.59 that would mean we are on our way to break the 8-month low at 88.22, in this case 87.97 and 87.10 look like the most possible targets of the next leg down.
Support:
88.59: Friday's low.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
87.10: 2009 low.
Resistance:
89.63: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
90.55: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
91.63: strong previous resistance.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-08-2009, 09:04 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 8, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/get-to-grips-with-position-sizing-11140)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
First we would like to draw your kind attention to the ECB rate decision that will come out later today, and to president Trichet's news conference that will follow. The Euro advanced to 1.4761 before retreating back to 1.4682. And with that, 1.4776 became the most important resistance for the short-term, and the key to reach new tops. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48 within 24 hours after the break, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. On the other hand the most important support for the short-term is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4695, holding above it is crucial for the upward movement. But if it's broken, we expect a test of one of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.
Support:
1.4695: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
1.4587: Previous intraday support.
Resistance:
1.4776: previous well known resistance.
1.4824: previous daily high.
1.4901: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen broke 88.59 and reached the target suggested in yesterday's report with astonishing accuracy when the drop stopped at 87.98, compared to our first target 87.97. Then it went up to 89.38 sharply in what might turn out to be some sort of intervention by the Japanese government. And now, it is moving above the important support 87.97, which is the key to reach 87.10. On the other hand, the resistance 89.38, which is close to the top of the triangle formation, is going to be the resistance of the day. If we break 89.38, short-term direction will be up, which would give a chance to go above 90 again, where the first important resistance in this area is the limit of the downtrend 90.40, which represents the falling trendline from August 9th top. Just below it there is the moving average SMA10. There are several resistance levels between here and the strong 91.63. If we break 87.97, the direction would stay as it is (down), and that would mean we are on our way to test or may be break the 14-year low 87.10.
Support:
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
87.10: 2009 low.
86.40: previous support from 1995.
Resistance:
89.38: the upper trendline in the supposed triangle pattern, most important resistance for the short-term.
89.96: Oct 5th high.
90.40: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-12-2009, 06:37 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 12, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/get-to-grips-with-position-sizing-11140)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro stopped at the resistance established in Friday's report 1.4772 with amazing accuracy, a stop which was a signal that we are heading to areas below 1.47. And now, there is a resistance that combines the rising trendline drawn from 1.4566, and the falling trendline drawn from 1.4816, and is currently at 1.4725, if price stay below it, we are heading south. The probability of more downside grows with a break of the nearby support 1.4693. Such a break would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509. The most important resistance is short-term is of course 1.4725. If broken, the Euro will be able to reach areas above 1.48, first of which is 1.4824, then new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901.
Support:
1.4693: short-term support.
1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
1.4574: Previous intraday support.
Resistance:
1.4725: an area combining the rising trendline from 1.4566, and the falling trendline from 1.4816.
1.4761: previous daily high.
1.4826: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen is testing the limit of the downtrend, which is represented by the falling trendline from August 9th top, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.
Support:
89.32: short-term support.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
Resistance:
90.29: the falling trendline from Aug 9th top.
90.67: previous support.
91.12: previous support & resistance area.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-13-2009, 06:48 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 13, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/get-to-grips-with-position-sizing-11140)
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As expected, the Euro jumped after breaking 1.4725, but the rise stopped just above 1.48, exactly like what happened last Thursday (yesterday's high 1.4812, Thursday's high 1.4816). It seems like reaching the resistance area 1.4808-1.4816 has become a problem for the Euro, since it failed twice at the same area. The falling trendline from yesterdays high, on the intraday charts, will provide the most important resistance for the short-term at 1.4788, and this resistance is the key to break the hard area 1.4808-1.4816, and the well known resistance which is just above it 1.4826, then may be new highs above the tops of September 22nd & 23rd, the most attractive of which is 1.4901. Support is at 1.4728, a break here would signal more of the drop, to test one or some of the important support levels in the 1.46 & 1.45 areas such as 1.4645, 1.4613, 1.4575, down to 1.4509.
Support:
1.4728: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4645: Previous intraday resistance.
1.4574: Previous intraday support.
Resistance:
1.4788: the falling trendline from yesterday's high on intraday charts.
1.4826: previous daily high.
1.4901: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen failed to capitalize on the break of 90.29. And although the falling trendline on the 4H was broken, the falling trendline on the hourly chart was not, and price stopped just below it, near the well known resistance 90.40. We will shift attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.29, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. Short-term support is at 89.32, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.
Support:
89.21: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
89.01: Fibonacci 61.8% , and the most important support for the short-term.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.37: the falling trendline on the hourly chart, plus the resistance that stopped yesterday's rise.
90.67: previous support.
91.12: previous support & resistance area.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-14-2009, 07:14 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct. 14, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/get-to-grips-with-position-sizing-11140)
---
Traders in the U.S await tomorrow's publication of the Department of Labor's monthly CPI measurement (Oct 15).
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services excluding food and energy.
The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer.
It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the US.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD (as the common way to fight inflation is raising rates, which may attract foreign investment), while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change in the current rate, standing at 0.10%
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
Finally, the Euro reached new tops for this year, and came very close to our favorite target 1.4901 (the high until this very moment is 1.4898). By taking a look at the drawn channel we find that the important question now is will 1.50 be the next stop? To answer this question, we must estimate the strength of the resistance levels in this area, especially 1.4901 & 1.4953. We expect that in case of a break 1.4901, the Euro will be able to reach 1.50. But, if 1.4901 succeeds in capping the price, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to 1.4793 first, and if broken, we can expect more drop. The important support now is the nearby 1.4872, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. To summarize: 1.4901 is resistance of the day, a break would lead to 1.50, while the support of the day is 1.4872, and a break here would lead to 1.4793 as the first important stop, and if broken we will head to the important support on the intraday charts 1.4755.
Support:
1.4874: short-term support.
1.4793: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4755: the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.
Resistance:
1.4901: previous daily high.
1.4953: previous daily high.
1.5000: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen dropped to 89 again, and we might see it test 88.68 today. But before that, we need to see a break of 88.96, which is the most important support for the short-term, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break. We will still pay attention towards the trendline on the hourly chart, which is currently at 90.27, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. The resistance that is attached to this line is 90.27, and if broken, then the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63.
Support:
88.96: short-term support.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
Resistance:
90.27: the falling trendline on the hourly chart.
90.67: previous support.
91.12: previous support & resistance area.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-15-2009, 06:52 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 15, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars)
---
Tomorrow (Oct 15) The US Treasury Department will publish the monthly Treasury International Capital (TIC) Net Long-Term Transactions Report.
The report measures the monthly difference in value between US purchases of long-term foreign securities and foreign purchases of US long-term securities.
The TIC flows is a key resource of the US government for offsetting the Trade Deficit. It can give a good reflection on demand for USD
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts predict last month's measurement of 15.30B to fall to 11.00B.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As expected, the Euro continued its rise, but until this very moment did not reach our target of 1.50. By taking a look at the two drawn channels, we see that they unite just above 1.50, which gives this area a lot of importance. And we assume very reasonably that this area is one of the best candidates to change short-term direction. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. On the other hand, if it is broken, we will get closer to 1.51, since we see the next stop as 1.5082, on the way to higher prices. The short-term support now is the nearby 1.4933, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts), and if broken, we can expect more drop.
Support:
1.4933: short-term support.
1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.
Resistance:
1.4962: previous daily high.
1.5011: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
1.5082: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Price could neither break the resistance 90.27, nor the support 88.96 (which was exactly the lowest price after the issuance of the report), and that is why we spent the whole day in a very tight range. What is worth notice this morning, that the falling trendline from 90.44 on the hourly chart, has many touch points with the price. And we will adopt it as resistance of the day. Breaking it would give the chance to test another slightly more important line which is the falling trendline from 95.05, currently at 90.29, and if it is broken, then the Dollar would be invited to show how deep its real strength is over a series of resistance areas starting at 90.67 and reaches 91.63. breaking 90.29 means that the line is broken, and the next stop would be 90.67 which is an important stop on the way to the most important stop in these areas 91.63. As for the support, it will stay as it was in yesterday's report 88.96, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.
Support:
88.96: short-term support.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
87.97: Jan 23rd low.
Resistance:
89.64: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 90.44
90.29: the falling trendline on the hourly chart from 95.05.
91.12: previous support & resistance area.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-19-2009, 07:26 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 19, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/get-to-grips-with-position-sizing-11140)
---
Traders await the Bank of Canadas (BOC) decision on short term interest rate which will be announced tomorrow (Tuesday, 20/10).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Analysts predict the interest rate to remain stable at 0.25%.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As expected, Failure to break 1.4962 twice, drove the Euro down to the bottom of the channel drawn on the hourly & intraday charts, reaching this bottom with accuracy as we can note on the charts. Failure at 1.4962 could be a signal of a change in trend before reaching the top of the channel. Thus we must keep an open eye towards any reversal signals that could appear here. Short-term support is Fibonacci support 1.4849, a break would signal that a correction of some kind has started. And if this is the case, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4672 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4782 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop. Short-term resistance is 1.4899, it is the key to reach 1.50 and the top of the channel.
Support:
1.4849: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, plus the rising trendline from 1.4480 on the intraday charts.
1.4723: Fibonacci 50% for the rise from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.4899: short-term resistance.
1.4966: Thursday's high, and the resistance that stopped the price twice.
1.5032: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen stayed above the important support 90.14, and reached 91.31 on Friday. It seems that it stopped close to the upper limit of the rising channel drawn on the chart. The most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise. As for the support, the most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived last week's attempt for a break.
Support:
90.36: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.97: the falling trendline from Friday's top on intraday charts.
91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
91.93: Sep 2nd low.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-20-2009, 06:43 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 20, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars)
---
Tomorrow (Oct 21) The Bank of England's (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will publish its record of the committee's interest rate meeting held two weeks ago.
The meeting gives a picture of economic conditions in the UK, and records the votes of the individual members of the Committee.
If the BOE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook, it should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke the yesterday's resistance 1.4899, and reached the first target of this break 1.4966, and came close to 1.50 (the high until the moment of preparing this report is 1.4993). We will adopt this top as resistance of the day, if broken we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5040, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. on the other hand, the support 1.4964 obviously held during the last few hours, that is why we will consider it the short-term most important support. And if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4828 (at least), which is expected to drop the price back to the important 1.4891 first (Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term), and if broken, we can expect more drop.
Support:
1.4964: lowest price on intraday charts during the last few hours.
1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
Resistance:
1.4993: short-term resistance.
1.5040: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
1.5082: previous daily high.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen stopped exactly at the first resistance in yesterday's report (highest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.97), and it did not break the support at 90.07, which means that yesterday's movement did not have any technical impact, and did not break the important support nor the important resistance. The most important support is the retest level of the broken trendline, and Fibonacci 50% for the short-term at 90.07, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.73, the top of the falling channel on the intraday charts, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.
Support:
90.07: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the retest level for the broken trendline.
89.64: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.73: the falling trendline from Friday's top on intraday charts.
91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
91.93: Sep 2nd low.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-21-2009, 07:55 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 21, 2009
Free webinar - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars)
---
The US Department of Labor will publish its weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report Tomorrow (22 Oct).
The Report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts forecast last weeks measure of 514.00K to rise to 518.00K.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke the yesterday's support 1.4964, and reached the first target of this break, and Fibonacci important support 1.4891, tested it strongly, but eventually it survived (yesterday's low 1.4881). We will adopt this support level as support of the day, because if it holds, this would mean that the short-term correction is already over, and that we are heading to areas above yesterday's high 1.4993. But, if broken, what will be expected is a correction for the move up from 1.4480, and if this is the case, targets will not be less than 1.4797, and may be 1.4737 also. Short-term resistance is 1.4950, and if broken, we will head with the Euro to the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart, which is currently at 1.5048, and may be we will reach the highest level since Aug 2008, at the resistance 1.5082. The support level at 1.4891 is the most important level for today, and is the line separating positive areas from negative.
Support:
1.4891: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4842-1.4849: The support area which contains the lows of Thursday & Friday.
1.4797: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.4950: short-term resistance.
1.5000: psychological level.
1.5048: the top of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen with amazing accuracy at the first support in yesterday's report (lowest price after the issuance of yesterday's report is 90.06), and then rose to 91.05, breaking 90.73 on the way, but what followed was a modest move. The most important support is the Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 89.77, and if broken the direction would be down to test the important support 88.68, which must hold to prevent another attempt to test 87.97 which survived 2 weeks ago an attempt for a break. As for the resistance, the most important one is 90.90, and the key to the most important stop in these areas is 91.63, which is expected to be an important test. Breaking it means that this rise will continue in the next few days, to areas above 92, where 92.52-92.58 is the first target for this break. While failure here would indicate that this is but a short-term rise.
Support:
89.77: Fibonacci 50% short-term and the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
89.38: Oct 7th high.
88.68: support area that supported the price twice this month.
Resistance:
90.90: short-term resistance.
91.63: previous support & resistance area, the most important resistance for the short-term.
91.93: Sep 2nd low.
--
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-26-2009, 11:51 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 26, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars)
---
The National Australia Bank (NAB) will publish its Quarterly Business Confidence report tomorrow (OCT 27).
The report measures the current business conditions in Australia by analyzing the economic situation in the short term.
The indicator is concluded from a survey of around 1000 companies.
A rising trend indicates an increase in business investment which may lead to higher levels of output.
Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
The Australian Market has seen an improving trend ever since the low reading of Business Confidence this February which stood at -42.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
We can say that the Euro is still facing trouble in the 1.5045-1.5062 area, and with closing on towards 1.5082 very slowly, we should be on the watch for a top near this level, where a relatively sizable correction is expected to begin. The most important resistance for now is 1.5082, and only breaking it would weaken the probability of a top formation in this area. The most important support is the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly charts, which meets the moving average SMA100 at 1.4992. If broken, we expect a correction to match the rise from 1.4480, which would take the price in the next few days to 1.4840 at the very least. But, if things go against our expectations, and the price rise and breaks 1.5082, that would open the way towards 1.5144 & 1.5200.
Support:
1.4992: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and the moving average SMA100.
1.4896: clear support area on the hourly chart.
1.4840: Fibonacci 38.2% for the whole move from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.5082: previous daily high from 2008.
1.5144: previous support area that contained more than one daily low during last year.
1.5200: previous resistance area from 2008.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen reached 92 for the first time in more than a month. And after breaking 91.63, its is only logical to say that the odds favor a continuation of this slow rise, probably to our previously suggested target area 92.52-58, which could be an area for the price to reverse from, and start correcting the whole rise from 87.98. Short-term resistance is 91.94, and breaking it would mean we are heading towards the target area 92.52-58, or may be to a more exciting and attractive target, which is 92.88: Fibonacci 50% resistance for the whole down move from 97.77 to 87.98. And since the 2 targets are not far from each other, the whole area combining them (92.52-92.88) is considered one wide resistance area that we expect is able to reverse the direction on the short-term, and initiate a correction that we can not talk about its size now. The most important support is 91.47, provided by the rising trendline on the 15 minute chart. If broken, we will target 90.90 where the known previous resistance meets the SMA100. And Since the RSI is standing in the middle of the way, the odds of going in either direction look close.
Support:
91.47: the rising trendline on the intraday charts.
90.90: the previous known resistance, and the moving average SMA100.
89.38: Oct 19th low.
Resistance:
91.94: intraday resistance.
92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
92.88: Fibonacci 50% for the whole drop from 97.77 to 87.98.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-28-2009, 09:05 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 28, 2009
Free webinar - Spotting behavioral and fundamental clues in the market to catch giant price moves
Expert: Kris Matthews
When: Sun, Nov 1, 2009, 10:00 EST
Traders often forget that the market is made up of human beings, rather than price patterns and news events. Your edge in the market (and in any zero-sum-game) is knowing something about the other players' positions.
To profit from the currency market you must understand that there are three groups of players in the currency market and each has particular motives, limitations, and behaviors. Identifying the clues that each of these groups leave behind in a systematic manner will position you to capture the large macro moves in the forex market.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars)
---
The U.S. Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (Oct 29).
The report is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts predict last weeks measure of 531.00k to drop to 520.00k
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in yesterday's report, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4927 with great accuracy (yesterday's high 1.4926), then dropped breaking the support 1.4861, and reached the first target of that break 1.4771 with great accuracy as well (yesterday's low 1.4769). We still favor more downside movement, which is an expectation built on the negative technical outlook after breaking 1.4992, but we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 300 pips so far. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from yesterday's low, currently at 1.4801, and breaking it would mean a continuation of the sharp drop, in order to break 1.4771, and target Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole up move from 1.4480, at 1.4702. Short-term resistance is 1.4844, and breaking it would target the area between 1.4881 & 1.4949. If the negative outlook is to persist, the later (1.4949) should hold.
Support:
1.4801: the rising trendline from yesterday's low on the intraday charts.
1.4760: Oct 13th low.
1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
Resistance:
1.4844: Monday's low.
1.4927: Fibonacci 38.2% for yesterday's drop.
1.4978: Fibonacci 61.8% for yesterday's drop, and the most important resistance for the time being.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
The Dollar-Yen stayed below the resistance 92.27, broke the support 91.98, and reached the first target for this break 91.26 successfully. With this down move, we are getting closer to the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, currently at 90.76, making it support of the day. Staying above it, would give this pair a chance to correct the drop from Monday's high 92.31, creating a correction that could reach 91.84, the most important resistance for the short-term. We believe that the borders of the current area are support 90.76 and resistance 97.84, and before breaking any of them, it would be difficult to predict the next move's direction. And we believe that the direction of that move will be the direction of the break. If we break support 90.76, that would mean we broke the rising trend channel, and the trend for the short and medium terms, and that would take the price close to 90 again. On the other hand, breaking resistance 91.84 would mean that the drop from Monday's high is over, and that we are on the way to 92.52-58.
Support:
90.76: the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly.
90.06: Oct 20th low.
89.61: Oct 12th low.
Resistance:
91.54: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
91.84: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the most important resistance for now.
92.52-92.58: previous well known resistance area.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
10-29-2009, 06:22 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Oct 29, 2009
Free webinar TODAY - Get to grips with Position Sizing
Expert: Tony Beckwith
When: Thu, Oct 29, 2009, 12:00 EST
Tony Beckwith of specialist risk control software firm MTPredictor returns to explain how to get your forex trade size right to cope with winners - and why it is imperative to do so!
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars)
---
Traders await tomorrows announcement (Oct 30) by the Bank of Japans Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on the new monthly short term interest rate.
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the JPY, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the JPY.
Analysts expect no new changes from the banks executives, with this months interests remaining stable at 0.10%.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
In agreement with the negative technical outlook we talked about in the past two days, the Euro stopped at the first resistance in the report 1.4844 with great accuracy (highest price after the issuance of the report is 1.4840), then dropped breaking the support 1.4801, and reached the first target of that break 1.4702. And after reaching 1.4702, we should not neglect the rising probability of an upward correction for the drop from 1.5061, which reached almost 400 pips so far. Short-term support is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole rise from .4480, which is at 1.4702, and breaking it would mean that the drop coming from 1.5061 will be larger than our expectation, and the next targets will be 1.4649 and 1.4610. Short-term resistance is 1.4737, and breaking it would target the Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.4827, and may be Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. If the negative outlook is to persist, the Euro should not break the most important resistance for the medium-term 1.4916.
Support:
1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
1.4610: previous support.
Resistance:
1.4737: short-term resistance.
1.4827: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4872: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen broke 90.76 and had some drop after that, but it stopped before 90. In spite of that, the technical outlook became more negative, because we broke the rising channel that we have been monitoring lately. The most important support for the short-term is 90.16, and until this moment it managed to hold above it. If it can maintain to do so, we expect a correction for the down move from 92.31. But if it is broken, more of the drop is to be expected, first towards the important 89.61, the last important support above 89, since the next important support is 88.82. On the other hand, the most important resistance for the short-term is 91.02, which represents both Fibonacci 38.2%, and also the retest level for the broken channel. If broken, we expect to rise towards the important 91.52, and if we are in front of a correction, we should not break this level. But if a surprise happens and we break it, the price would be on the way back to 92.17.
Support:
90.16: short-term support.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
88.82: previous support & Oct 14th low.
Resistance:
91.02: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, and the retest level for the broken channel, important resistance.
91.52: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term, important resistance.
92.17: previous well known resistance area.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther T. Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-02-2009, 08:18 AM
EU:
Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.3), Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.1, Expected 51.1), Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Expected 50.7).
Wednesday: France PMI Services (Previous 57.8, Expected 57.8), Germany PMI Services (Previous 50.9, Expected 50.9), Euro-zone PMI Services (Previous 52.3, Expected 52.3). Euro-Zone PPI MoM (Previous 0.4%, Expected -0.4%) & YoY (Previous -7.5%, Expected -7.7%).
Thursday: Euro-Zone Retail Sales MoM (Previous -0.2%, Expected 0.2%)
& YoY (Previous -2.6%, Expected -2.4%). ECB Rate Decision (Previous 1.00%, Expected 1.00%) & then Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference.
Friday: France Trade Balance (Previous -3.4 B, Expected -3.0 B). Germany Factory Orders MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -20.4%, Expected -13.6%).
US:
Monday: ISM Manufacturing (Previous 52.6, Expected 53.0).
Tuesday: Factory Orders (Previous -0.8%, Expected 1.0%).
Wednesday: FED/FOMC Rate Decision (Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
(Previous 0.25%, Expected 0.25%).
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 530K, Expected 520K).
Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 9.8%, Expected 9.9%), Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Previous -263K, Expected -175K). Wholesale Inventories (Previous -1.3%, Expected -1.0%).
JP:
Monday: Labor Cash Earnings YoY (Previous -3.1%, Expected -2.1%)
Thursday: BOJ Board Meeting Minutes (text report).
Friday: Leading Index CI (Previous 83.2, Expected 86.2), Coincident Index CI (Previous 91.2, Expected 92.5).
UK:
Monday: PMI Manufacturing (Previous 49.5, Expected 50.0).
Wednesday: Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Previous 71.0, Expected 73.0), PMI Services (Previous 55.3, Expected 55.5).
Thursday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous -2.5%, Expected 1.2%) & YoY (Previous -11.2%, Expected -10.3%). BoE Rate Decision (Previous 0.50%, Expected 0.50%).
Friday: PPI Input MoM (Previous -0.5%, Expected 1.5%) & YoY (Previous -6.5%, Expected -1.3%). PPI Output MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.3%) & YoY (Previous 0.4%, Expected 1.9%), PPI Core MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 0.2%) & YoY (Previous 1.4%, Expected 2.0%).
AU:
Monday: House Price Index QoQ (Previous 4.2%, Expected 3.0%) &YoY House Price Index (Previous -1.4%, Expected 4.3%).
Tuesday: RBA Decision about the interest rate on the Australian Dollar (Previous 3.25%%, Expected 3.50%).
Wednesday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%).
Thursday: Trade Balance (Previous -1524 M, Expected -2150 M).
CA:
Thursday: Building Permits MoM (Previous 7.2%, Expected N/A). Ivey PMI (Previous 61.7%, Expected 58.0).
Friday: Unemployment Rate (Previous 8.4%, Expected 8.4%). Net Change in Employment (Previous 30.6K, Expected 10.0K).
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
forexpros
11-02-2009, 10:02 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 2, 2009
Free webinar - Pivot Points: Essential for Forex Trading
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Wed, Nov 4, 2009, 17:00 EST
One of the most challenging subjects for traders is finding their entries and exits.
If you are a day trader, you will not want to miss this webinar as we will talk about pivot points, what are the best way to use them, why they are so crucial, and how to make sense of the market.
If you want more efficient entries, exits and to get access to proprietary pivot point data, then you will want to tune into this webinar.
Click here to join this webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/pivot-points:--essential-for-forex-trading-11139)
---
UK traders await the release of the Nationwide Consumer Confidence report tomorrow (Oct 3rd).
The report is calculated from a survey of about 1,000 consumers, and measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict the consumer spending, which is a major part in the total economic activity.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP since it points to consumer optimism, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts forecast an increase on lasts months figure of 71.00 to 72.00.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke the short-term resistance 1.4737, and reached the first target suggested for this break at 1.4827 successfully. The most important question for now is this: Is the current rise a corrective or impulsive move? We believe that the limit separating those two possibilities is 1.4916, which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from 1.5061. And as long as the Euro stays below this resistance it is considered a corrective rise, while breaking it would announce more upside movement to come, probably to reach new highs above the last top 1.5061. The first resistance in front of us is 1.4872, and if it is broken we will head towards the important test of 1.4916, and if this one is broken we will target 1.4980 first, on the way to higher targets. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Wednesday's low, currently at 1.4786, and if broken we will test 1.4702 again, and if this one is broken we will head towards 1.4649.
Support:
1.4786: the rising trendline from Wednesday's low on the intraday & hourly charts.
1.4702: Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole move from 1.4480.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
Resistance:
1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4980: Oct 26th low.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As we have expected in Friday's report, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.75 and reached both suggested targets 90.16 & 89.61 successfully. This drop that started on Thursday and continued into the new week, was the result of stopping near Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 9.52, and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. But on the other hand, the abovementioned drop cashed in 250 pips approximately, which could create a correction from here. That is why we prefer to wait for a break of short-term support 89.61 or short-term resistance 90.23 before talking about the direction of the next move from here. If we break the support 89.61 the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.07 and the important 88.64. And if we break Thursday's low 90.23, we will be heading to a test of short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.68, and only if it is broken, we will expect a retest of the broken channel at 91.28, which would be an important test if it happens.
Support:
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
88.64: Oct 9th low.
Resistance:
90.23: Oct 29th low.
90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
91.28: the retest level of the broken channel.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-03-2009, 06:45 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 3, 2009
Free webinar - Pivot Points: Essential for Forex Trading
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Wed, Nov 4, 2009, 17:00 EST
One of the most challenging subjects for traders is finding their entries and exits.
If you are a day trader, you will not want to miss this webinar as we will talk about pivot points, what are the best way to use them, why they are so crucial, and how to make sense of the market.
If you want more efficient entries, exits and to get access to proprietary pivot point data, then you will want to tune into this webinar.
Click here to join this webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/pivot-points:--essential-for-forex-trading-11139)
---
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on short term interest rate is due out tomorrow (Nov 4).
The decision on where to set interest rates depends mostly on growth outlook and inflation. The primary objective of the central bank is to achieve price stability. High interest rates attract foreigners looking for the best "risk-free" return on their money, which can dramatically increases demand for the nation's currency.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts forecast no change, with the interest rate remaining at 0.25%.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
In spite of the importance of the 1.4682 support that has stopped price twice exactly at the same price, we will not wait until it is broken to turn our outlook for the Euro to negative. We will set out most important support at Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term 1.4744, because it is the last important support defending 1.4682, and if 1.4744 is broken, the odds of breaking 1.4682 on a third attempt will be big. The most important support for the short-term is 1.4809, provided by the falling trendline from 1.4926, and breaking it would give the Euro some strength that could be enough to test Fibonacci 50% at 1.4872. We will await a break of either of those levels before deciding on today's direction. If we break support at 1.4744, that will mean a continuation of falling on the short-term and targeting the important bottom 1.4649 and may be 1.4610 after that. But if we break the resistance 1.4809, today's direction would be up, and the suggested targets would be 1.4872 first, and may be 1.4916.
Support:
1.4744: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4649: Oct 7th low.
1.4610: Sep 21st low.
Resistance:
1.4980: the falling trendline from 1.4926.
1.4872: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4916: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
Down to the pip, the Dollar-Yen stopped at Fibonacci resistance specified in yesterday's report 90.68 (yesterday's high is EXACTLY 90.68), and as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels is an evidence that the trend in down. Thats why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.16, after the price literally "sat" on it for the past few hours. If we break this support the downtrend will continue, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for yesterday, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance that we talked about (90.68),makes it the most important resistance, and only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will be heading to a test the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), which is currently at 90.95, and that would be an important test if it happens.
Support:
90.16: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
Resistance:
90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, important resistance.
90.95: the upper limit of the short-term downtrend and the trendline descending from last week tops.
91.60: Oct 29th high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-04-2009, 06:56 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 4, 2009
FREE WEBINAR TODAY - Pivot Points: Essential for Forex Trading
Expert: Chris Capre
When: Wed, Nov 4, 2009, 17:00 EST
One of the most challenging subjects for traders is finding their entries and exits.
If you are a day trader, you will not want to miss this webinar as we will talk about pivot points, what are the best way to use them, why they are so crucial, and how to make sense of the market.
If you want more efficient entries, exits and to get access to proprietary pivot point data, then you will want to tune into this webinar.
Click here to join this webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/pivot-points:--essential-for-forex-trading-11139)
---
Initial Jobless Claims to Be Published in the US Tomorrow
The Initial Jobless Claims is a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week. This data is collected by the Department of Labor, and published as a weekly report.
The number of jobless claims is used as a measure of the health of the job market, as a series of increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
On a week-to-week basis, claims are quite volatile.
Usually, a move of at least 35K in claims, is required to signal a meaningful change in job growth.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD.
Analysts forecast 520.00K, down from 530.00K.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke short-term support 1.4744 and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.4649. But the point where yesterday's drop stopped, uncovered a very harmonized channel, and price has touched its lines a whole 7 times. Yesterday's low was exactly at the bottom of that channel, as the attached chart shows (hourly chart). We will monitor this channel to try and specify the direction, and we strongly believe that if this channel is broken to the downside, the medium-term price direction will be in a downtrend. The bottom of the channel is currently at 1.4649 which makes this level the most important support for the short-term. On the other hand, resistance congregate its power in one important area, where we find the falling trendline from 1.5061, the moving average SMA100, and Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term at 1.4762 (calculated for the 5 waves dropping from 1.4843 to the orthodox bottom 1.4631 and not the price bottom 1.4625), which clearly makes this area the most important of all resistance levels. A break of the 1.4649 support will put the Euro under pressure and that would push it lower to 1.4559, then the important bottom 1.4480, and later to 1.4404. While a break of the resistance 1.4762 ill give the Euro a chance to catch a break and to correct upwards towards 1.4846 and may be 1.4897.
Support:
1.4649: the bottom of the coordinated channel on the hourly chart, and the most important support for medium-term.
1.4559: Fibonacci 38.2% for medium-term.
1.4480: Oct 2nd low.
Resistance:
1.4762: important resistance area combining Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, the moving average SMA100, and the falling trendline from 1.5061..
1.4846: Fibonacci 50% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
After stopping on Monday, at Fibonacci resistance 90.68 down to the pip, Dollar-Yen stopped yesterday at the moving average SMA100, with the same kind of accuracy. And as you know, stopping near Fibonacci resistance levels (and moving averages as well) is an evidence that the trend in down. Thats why we find ourselves favoring a continuation of the short-term downtrend as long as we are below 90.68. And we will await a break of short-term Fibonacci support 90.21. If we break this support the downtrend will resume, and will target 89.61 first, then 89.07 and may be the important 88.64. The price behavior for the past two days, and the amazingly accurate reversal at the Fibonacci resistance (90.68), makes it the most important resistance, and to add to that, the upper limit of the short-term downtrend (the trendline drawn on the chart), is currently at the same level. And only if it is broken, we will change our negative outlook for this pair. If this surprise happens, we will expect price to reach 91.28 then the important resistance 91.63.
Support:
90.21: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
Resistance:
90.68: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, and the falling line of the downtrend, important resistance.
91.28: previous intraday important top.
91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-05-2009, 05:59 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 5, 2009
Free webinar - Mapping out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part I
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST
As the first Webinar of a two part series, Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.
The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/mapping-out-the-banking-system---foreign-exchange-dealing-process,-part-i-11142)
---
Unemployment Rate in the US to Be Announced Tomorrow
The Unemployment Rate is a measure of the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work in the US.
A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is a positive indicator for the labor market in the US and should be taken as positive for the USD.
Analysts forecast a 9.90% unemployment rate, up from 9.80%.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke short-term resistance and reached both suggested targets 1.4846 and 1.4897 successfully. Yesterday's climb stopped 10 pips above Fibonacci level, then went back to settle below it. That is why this resistance will keep its importance. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, or at least close to the dollar and a half mark. The Euro continued its shine since reaching the bottom of the hourly channel that we talked about yesterday, and is currently rising inside an upward rising channel on the intraday charts, with its top at 1.4972, a level we consider as a first target to a break of 1.4897, and after that we could see 1.5014. The bottom of the same channel is currently at 1.4839, and as long as price holds above it (at the moment its only pips above this level) the potential for more short-term upside works stays alive. On the other hand a break of the bottom of the channel indicates that the direction for the short-term has turned down, which will target 1.4769 first, and may be 1.4701 later. We remind you of the rate decision of the ECB that will be announced today, and the news conference for president Trichet that will follow, which usually moves the Euro violently.
Support:
1.4839: the bottom of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
1.4769: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
1.4701: previous important support/resistance area.
Resistance:
1.4897: Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop 1.5061.
1.4972: the top of the rising channel on the intraday charts.
1.5014: previous resistance.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen broke Fibonacci resistance 90.68 and reached 91.28 as we accepted, with accuracy (yesterday's high 91.30), before retreating fast. This behavior redefined the rising channel on the hourly chart to make its bottom at 90.18. And when calculating Fibonacci 61.8% resistance for the short-term (for the drop from yesterday's high), we find that it is at the resistance level of 90.90. In case of a break of either of those levels, we believe price will move in the direction of the break. If the bottom of the channel at 90.18 is broken, the price will move down and target 89.61 first, and may be 89.07 as well. While if we break Fibonacci resistance at 90.90 we expect a rise to surpass yesterday's high, targeting the important 91.63 first, and only if it is broken we can expect 92 to appear on the price screens when the price targets the obvious resistance on the hurly chart 92.17.
Support:
90.18: the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart.
89.61: previous support & Oct 12th low.
89.07: previous intraday support.
Resistance:
90.90: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
91.63: a well known support area that contained a number of daily tops and bottoms, the last of which was Oct 29th high.
92.17: obvious resistance on the hourly chart.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-09-2009, 06:21 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 9, 2009
Free Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpors.com: Mapping Out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process
Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST/16:00GMT
Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.
The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.
Click Here (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/mapping-out-the-banking-system---foreign-exchange-dealing-process,-part-i-11142) To Join
--------------------
In The News:
Traders await tomorrows release of the Economic Sentiment report by The German Zentrum fόr Europδische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW).
The report determines the sentiment of German institutional investors over the past month.
The ZEW report, which is concluded from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts, is considered a leading indicator of business conditions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's report to indicate a slight drop to 55.00 from lasts month's measure of 56.00
--------------------
Euro/Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
Finally, the Euro broke short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance level at 1.4897 and reached the previous known resistance 1.4942 which is October 22nd low. Breaking it would send the Euro above 1.50, since we see the first important resistance above it is at 1.5014. Then there is nothing separating the Euro from this year's high 1.5061, and may be reach the important resistance 1.5082. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is 1.4880. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.
Support:
1.4880: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.
Resistance:
1.4942: Oct 22nd low.
1.5014: previous resistance.
1.5082: previous resistance.
----------------
GBP/USD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/gbp-usd)
The Pound broke the resistance 1.6636, and reached the first target 1.6690 successfully, and came close to the second 1.6739 this morning (the high until the moment is 1.6739). This resistance, that represents September 11th high, will be the most important for today. If price fail to break it, it will be heading towards a test of the short-term support at 1.6661, and if this support is broken, we believe the price will be in a correction for the whole rise from 1.6259. Such a correction will target Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.6552 (at least), and could reach Fibonacci 50% at 1.6496. on the other hand, if the price manage to break 1.6739, this rise will continue, and reach areas above 1.68, where there is the important resistance 1.6830 that we believe to be the minimum target for breaking 1.6739. And may be later, we will see a test of the important resistance from August 1.6910. All eyes on 1.6739.
Support:
1.6661: short-term resistance.
1.6552: Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term.
1.6496: Fibonacci 50% for the short-term.
Resistance:
1.6739: Sep 11th high.
1.6830: Aug 7th high.
1.6910: a previous resistance from August.
----------------
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.41 and reached our first target suggested for this break at 89.61 with an amazing accuracy (Friday's low was 89.60). And with the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance during the Asian session, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at 90.55, and short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 90.05, which will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.
Support:
90.05: short-term support.
89.40: previous support.
88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
Resistance:
90.37: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
91.30: Nov 4th high.
Forex Trading (http://www.forexpros.com) Analysis by Forexpros.com
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-09-2009, 08:27 AM
EU:
Monday: Germany Trade Balance (Previous 8.1B, Expected 11.3B), Germany Current Account (Previous 4.6B, Expected 9.3B), Imports (Previous 1.1%, Expected 0.9%)., Exports (Previous -1.8%, Expected 2.5%). France Bank of France Business Sentiment (Previous 92, Expected 93). Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence (Previous -12.6, Expected -12.0). Germany Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.7%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -16.8%, Expected -14.4%).
Tuesday: Germany Consumer Price Index CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.0%). France Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.8%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -10.8%, Expected -9.2%). Germany ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 56, Expected 55), Germany Zew Survey Current Situation (Previous -72.2, Expected -70.0). Euro-Zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment (Previous 56.9, Expected 58.0).
Thursday: Euro-Zone Industrial Production MoM (Previous 0.9%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -15.4%, Expected -14.1%).
Friday: Germany GDP QoQ (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.8%) & YoY (Previous -5.9%, Expected -4.8%). France GDP QoQ (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.6%) & YoY (Previous -2.8%, Expected -1.9%). Euro-Zone GDP QoQ (Previous 0.2%, Expected 0.5%) & YoY (Previous -4.8%, Expected -3.9%).
US:
Tuesday: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Previous 48.7, Expected N/A). ABC Consumer Confidence (Previous 49.0, Expected N/A).
Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 512K, Expected 510K). Monthly Budget Statement (Previous -155.5B, Expected -150.0B).
Friday: Trade Balance (Previous -30.7B, Expected -31.6B), Import Price Index MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -12.0%, Expected -5.6%). University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Previous 70.6, Expected 71.0)
JP:
Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 303.7B, Expected 630.0B), Current Account (Previous 1171.2B, Expected 1510.0B). Bank Lending (Previous 1.6%, Expected 1.5%), Banks Lending Banks (Previous 1.7%, Expected N/A). Eco Watchers Survey: Current (Previous 43.1, Expected N/A), Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (Previous 44.5, Expected N/A). Machine Tool Orders YoY (Previous -62.1%, Expected N/A).
Wednesday: Machine Orders MoM (Previous 0.5%, Expected 4.1%) &YoY (Previous -26.5%, Expected -26.3%).
Thursday: Domestic CGPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected -0.1%) & YoY (Previous -7.9%, Expected -6.0%).
Friday: Industrial Production MoM (Previous 1.4%, Expected N/A) & YoY (Previous -18.9%, Expected N/A). Consumer Confidence (Previous 40.7, Expected 40.5).
UK:
Tuesday: Trade Balance (Previous 2.318B, Expected 2.000B). DCLG UK House Prices YoY (Previous -5.6%, Expected -4.9%).
Wednesday: Jobless Claims Change (Previous 20.8K, Expected 20.0K). Average Earnings (Previous 1.9%, Expected 1.8%), Average Earnings Including Bonuses (Previous 1.6%, Expected 1.4%). ILO Unemployment Rate (Previous 7.9%, Expected 8.0%). Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report (Text Report).
AU:
Monday: Home Loans (Previous -0.6%, Expected 3.0%), Investment Lending (Previous 7.6%, Expected N/A).
Wednesday: Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Previous 121.4, Expected N/A).
Thursday: Employment Change (Previous 40.6K, Expected -10.0K), Unemployment Rate (Previous 5.7%, Expected 5.8%).
CA:
Thursday: New Housing Price Index MoM (Previous 0.1%, Expected 0.2%).
Friday: International Merchandise Trade (Previous -2.0B, Expected N/A). New Motor Vehicle Sales (Previous -0.3%, Expected 0.0%).
For more Fundamental News, visit the Forexpros Economic Calendar (http://www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar)
forexpros
11-10-2009, 06:32 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 10, 2009
Free webinar today - Mapping out the Banking System & Foreign Exchange Dealing Process, Part I
Expert: Dan Cook
When: Tue, Nov 10, 2009, 11:00 EST
As the first Webinar of a two part series, Dan Cook, Senior Market Analyst at IG Markets will shed light on the inner workings of the international banking system and its impact on currency trading.
The webinar will provide a breakdown of the Central Banks and the Interbank System, highlighting the roles of each of the major players and how their policy decisions impact currency markets. Additionally, Cook will review major market indicators and identify which data releases most critically impact currency markets, enabling traders to get a better sense of which economic announcements warrant the most attention.
Click here (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/mapping-out-the-banking-system---foreign-exchange-dealing-process,-part-i-11142) to join the webinar.
---
Traders await the release of the Bank of England's (BOE) Quarterly Inflation Report tomorrow (NOV 10th).
The report sets out a detailed economic analysis and inflation projection on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions. The Monetary Policy Committee is also expected to present an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the next two years.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd) - Rising Trendline
The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday's report 1.4942 and reached the first target suggest for his break 1.5014 with good accuracy (yesterday's high was 1.5018). Yesterday's target will be today's resistance, and if broken we expect this rise to go on, reaching new highs that we have not seen this year, first of which is 1.5082, then 1.5144. The most important support for the next few hours will be the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is at 1.4925 currently. In case it is broken, the Euro will face a correction on the short-term horizon that will target Fibonacci 38.2% for the short-term at 1.4821, at least, and could reach 61.8% at 1.4746. In this case, the latter will be the most important support for the short-term because staying above means this drop is only a correction, while breaking it means it is more than a correction.
Support:
1.4925: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
1.4821: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
1.4746: Fibonacci 61.8% for the last rising move.
Resistance:
1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
1.5144: previous support from 2008.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy) - Falling Trendline
As we said yesterday, the two-time stop at the descending trendline on Friday, and at Fibonacci 50% resistance at the beginning of the week, the borders of the downtrend is getting clearer and clearer. The falling trendline is now at short-term Fibonacci 61.8% resistance is at 90.37, meeting them in the same area is the moving average SMA100, making this area the most important for the short-term. Staying below it means that bears are in control. More confidence for the downtrend will be gained once we break 89.79, the support provided by the rising trendline from this weeks low. Such a break will target 89.40 then the important bottom 88.82. If a surprise happens, and we break 90.37, we will target 90.90 first, then 91.30.
Support:
89.79: the rising trendline from this weeks low.
89.40: previous support.
88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
Resistance:
90.37: a resistance area that includes Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term, a falling trendline, and the moving average SMA100.
90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
91.30: Nov 4th high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
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Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-11-2009, 10:37 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 11, 2009
Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex
Expert: Richard Regan
When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST
Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.
Click here (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/an-insider%27s-guide-to-forex-11143) to join the webinar.
---
The US Department of Labor will release the weekly Initial Jobless Claims report tomorrow (NOV 12).
The report serves as a measure of the number of people who file for unemployment benefits for the first time during the given week, and gives an indication to the health of the job market, as increases indicates that there are fewer people being hired.
While this measure tends to be volatile, analysts predict no change since last weeks measure of 512.00k.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
In the past 24 hours, the Euro have not broken the support 1.4925 nor the resistance 1.5014, that the price stopped at again with accuracy (yesterday's high is exactly Monday's high at 1.5018). And now, it looks like there is an attempt to break the rising trendline from November 3rd bottoms, which is currently at 1.4975. If the Dollar manages to drag the Euro to below this line, the rising trend from last weeks high 1.4625 will be over. And that suggests there will be a correction matching the size of this trend that will force the Euro to areas below 1.49 where we find three attractive targets: Fibonacci 38.2 for the above mentioned uptrend at 1.4868, and Fibonacci 50% at 1.4821, and before them the resistance that stopped the Euro several times last week at 1.4897. the most important resistance is defiantly 1.5014, and only breaking it will improve the short-term technical outlook for the Euro, since such a break will lead the price up to areas not seen this year, first of which 1.5082 then 1.5144.
Support:
1.4975: The bottom of the rising channel from Nov 3rd lows.
1.4897: the resistance that stopped the price several times last week.
1.4821: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
Resistance:
1.5014: previous resistance from 2008.
1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
1.5144: previous support from 2008.
---
USD/JPY (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-jpy)
Dollar-Yen broke the support 89.79 and reached the first target suggested for that break 89.40 successfully. The break of 89.79, the support that was provided to us by the rising trendline from last week's low, clearly means that the short-term trend is a down trend. However, the correction of yesterday's drop has already started, and is getting closer and closer to the broken trendline at 89.82 as this report is prepared. But the most important resistance is 90.23, where the falling trendline from October 27th top awaits. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the micro-term at 89.53, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.23, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.
Support:
89.53: Fibhonaci 61.8% for the micro-term.
88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
88.33: previous support.
Resistance:
90.23: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
91.31: Nov 4th high.
---
Forex trading (http://www.forexpros.com) analysis by Forexpros Written by Munther Marji
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-12-2009, 06:14 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 12, 2009
Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex
Expert: Richard Regan
When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST
Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.
Click here (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/an-insider%27s-guide-to-forex-11143) to join the webinar.
---
The U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the monthly Trade Balance index tomorrow (Nov 13).
The Index measures the difference in worth between exported and imported goods (exports minus imports), which make up the largest component of a country's balance of payments.
Export data gives reflection on the US growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand.
The index serves as a powerful indicator for the streangth of the USD, because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports.
Analysts forecast tomorrow's index to stand at -32.00B, a drop from lasts month's reading of -30.70B.
More fundamental analysis (http://www.forexpros.com/fundamental) at Forexpros.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro fluctuated in a tight range, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without reaching the target in either cases, and without any large moves to follow the breaks. Short-term support is still at 1.4975 where there is the moving average SMA100, and the previous support. If broken, the Euro will probably fall today in a correction for the last move up from 1.4625, targeting 1.4886 & 1.4836 and may be the most important support for medium-term currently at 1.4786. In this case, the later will become a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. The most important resistance is 1.5018, and breaking it would give the Euro a push to areas above yesterdays high, and we could finally see 1.51.
Support:
1.4975: the moving average SMA100 and a previous support.
1.4886: Fibonacci 38.2% for the last rising move.
1.4836: Fibonacci 50% for the last rising move.
Resistance:
1.5018: Monday's & Tuesday's high.
1.5082: previous resistan4ce from 2008.
1.5144: previous support from 2008.
---
USD/JPY
For the past 24 hours, the Dollar-yen did not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report, it did not penetrate 90.23, it did not drop below 89.53. The most important thing to happen from a technical point of view was the fact that the falling trendline and the rising broken trendline came closer to each other. The most important resistance is provided by the falling trendline from October 27th top, which is currently at 90.00. The bears will be in control as long as price is below this line that provides today's most important resistance. And if this happens, we expect the price to fall and test Fibonacci 61.8% support for the short-term at 89.56, and may be a break as well, that will lead to the important bottom 88.82. If the opposite of what we expect happens, and we break the resistance 90.00, the price will be on its way to 90.90 first, and may be 91.31 later.
Support:
89.56: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
88.33: previous support.
Resistance:
90.00: the falling trendline from Oct 27th high.
90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
91.31: Nov 4th high.
---
Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
Get further analysis on GBP/USD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/gbp-usd) and other currency pairs at Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-16-2009, 06:09 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 16, 2009
Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex
Expert: Richard Regan
When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST
Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/an-insider%27s-guide-to-forex-11143)
---
Fundamental Analysis, Canada
Monday: Manufacturing Sales MoM (Previous -2.1%, Expected 1.6%)
Wednesday: CPI MoM (Previous 0.0%, Expected 0.1%) & YoY (Previous -0.9%, Expected 0.3%). Core CPI MoM (Previous 0.3%, Expected 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 1.5%, Expected 1.7%).
Thursday: Leading Indicators MoM (Previous 1.1%, Expected 1.7%).
Get further analysis on CAD/USD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/cad-usd) and other currency pairs at Forexpros.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro moved in both directions, before choosing the upside, creating a rising move that continued from Friday until after the open last night, that elevated the EURUSD to 1.4971 until now. The most important support for medium-term is 1.4786, which is a crucial support, for setting the direction for the next few days, because breaking it would indicate that the drop from 1.5047 is not just a correction. Such a break would harm the technical outlook not just for the short-term but for the medium-term as well. However, for the short-term, the most important support is 1.4934, and breaking it would indicate that the fall will carry on and target the important 1.4786, and if broken we will see a test of the bottom that we saw twice 1.4682. The resistance is at 1.4972, and breaking it would send the price to test the top that we saw twice last week 1.5018, which is the key to 1.5082 that could be seen for the first time this year.
Support:
1.4934: short-term support.
1.4856: Oct 28th & 29th high.
1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.
Resistance:
1.4972: short-term resistance.
1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
---
USD/JPY
After halting with a reasonable accuracy near the resistance of Friday's report 90.52, Dollar-Yen broke the support 90.02 and reached the first suggested target 89.60. Friday's price behavior introduced the support 89.46, that we will adopt as support of the day. IF this support is taken, we will finally see the long awaited visit of 88.82, the important support for the medium-term. And if broken the next target will be October 13th low 88.13. As for the resistance, it comes from short-term Fibonacci 61.8% at 90.12. A break here would indicate that the odds of surpassing Friday's high are very good, and that will target 90.90 first, and may be 91.31. Even though the falling trendline from 92.31 was broken on Thursday, still the technical picture of the medium-term is hazy, and we await more signals to help us determine the direction of the medium-term.
Support:
89.46: obvious support on the hourly chart.
88.82: Oct 14th low, and an important low for determining the medium-term trend.
88.13: Oct 13th low.
Resistance:
90.12: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
90.90: a well known previous support/resistance.
91.31: Nov 4th high.
---
Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji
Get more Forex education (http://www.forexpros.com/education) at Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-17-2009, 05:51 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 17, 2009
Free webinar - An insider's guide to Forex
Expert: Richard Regan
When: Tue, Nov 17, 2009, 17:00 EST
Watch an in depth presentation on the inner workings of the global FOREX market. Richard explains what traps to avoid and how to position yourself to take advantage of the moves in currencies.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/an-insider%27s-guide-to-forex-11143)
---
Fundamental Analysis, Australia
Tuesday: Reserve Bank's Board November Minutes (Text Report).
Wednesday: Westpac Leading Index (Previous 1.1%, Expected N/A).
Thursday: Average Weekly Wages QoQ (Previous 1.2%, Expected N/A)
& YoY (Previous 6.1%, Expected N/A).
More on AUD/USD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/aud-usd) and other currencies on Forexpros.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro moved in both directions, breaking both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report, without being able to reach the target in both cases. We have witnessed a swift move during yesterday's trading, when the Euro dropped very fast to 1.4879 only to rise with the same light speed to 1.5014. This move has founded an important support at 1.4879, where the rising trendline from November 3rd bottom meets yesterday's low. If this support is broken, we will be heading to a test of Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.4782, which is also an important level. As for the resistance, after the price behavior we witnessed in the past few days, the area 1.4982-1.5018 became a gathering for several short-term resistance levels that are very close to each other. We will choose the lower limit of that area as our resistance of the day, if 1.4982 is broken, we will see price levels that have not been seen this year, as we will target 1.5082 first, then 1.5145.
Support:
1.4934: short-term support.
1.4879: the rising trendline from Nov 3rd bottom, and yesterday's low.
1.4782: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625.
Resistance:
1.4982: the lower limit of the resistance area 1.4982-1.5018.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
1.5145: previous resistance from 2008.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke the support specified in yesterday's report 89.46, and reached the first suggested target 88.82 successfully, in a long awaited visit to areas below 89. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, after establishing a support at 88.90. If this level holds, we will see a correction of yesterday's drop, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.88. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.
Support:
88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
88.13: Oct 13th low.
87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
89.27: Nov 11th low.
89.88: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
90.73: intraday top.
---
Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.
For charts (http://www.forexpros.com/charts) and other trading tools see Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-18-2009, 06:50 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 18, 2009
Free webinar - Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis
Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST
Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the Forex 101 series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.
Course Objective:
1)Develop both a quantitative and qualitative understanding of inter-market correlations.
2)Understand how supply and demand dynamics in a currency pair may affect others.
3)Learn to apply technical analysis concepts for a quick and easy method of inter-market analysis in a trading environment.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/beyond-the-forex-chart:-inter-market-analysis-11144)
---
Fundamental Analysis, UK
The UK National Statistics Bureau will publish the monthly Retail Sales measurement Tomorrow (Nov 19).
Retail Sales are a measurement of all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes in the UK.
It is an important indicator of consumer spending and also correlated to consumer confidence and considered as a pace indicator of the UK economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.
Analysts expect tomorrows measurement to stand at 0.60%, a slight increase from last month.
For analysis on GBP/USD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/gbp-usd) and other currencies see Forexpros.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
As expected, the Euro dropped after breaking 1.4934, reaching the first suggested target 1.4879 successfully, and getting close somehow to the second target and important level 1.4786. This behavior only gave us more confidence in the importance of 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the up-move from 1.4625 to 1.5047, especially with the rising trendline from August 17th low, approaching this level. Short-term support is nearby at 1.4876, a break here would target Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from yesterday's low which is at 1.4839. This is the last notable support before the all important 1.4786. The technical outlook for the short-term will not turn positive before breaking Fibonacci 61.8% for the drop from Monday's top at 1.4935. If this happens, the Euro will bounce to 1.4998 first, and if we can break this level, we have the right to wait for 1.5082 for the first time this year.
Support:
1.4876: short-term support.
1.4839: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4935: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%.
1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen broke both the support & resistance specified in yesterday's report without being able to create any large moves in both cases. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.
Support:
88.90: obvious support on the hourly chart.
88.13: Oct 13th low.
87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
89.27: Nov 11th low.
89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
90.73: intraday top.
---
Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.
For Forex software (http://www.forexpros.com/software) platforms see Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
forexpros
11-19-2009, 05:44 AM
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov. 19, 2009
Free webinar - Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis
Expert: Mark Dela Paz
When: Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST
Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the Forex 101 series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.
Course Objective:
1)Develop both a quantitative and qualitative understanding of inter-market correlations.
2)Understand how supply and demand dynamics in a currency pair may affect others.
3)Learn to apply technical analysis concepts for a quick and easy method of inter-market analysis in a trading environment.
Click here to join the webinar. (http://www.forexpros.com/live-events/webinars/beyond-the-forex-chart:-inter-market-analysis-11144)
---
The Bank of Japan is due to hold a press conference Tomorrow (NOV 20).
The Bank regularly uses press releases in order to communicate with investors. Topics at such conferences generally include economic outlook, inflation and changes in interest rates.
For more on USD/JPY, USD/NZD (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/usd-nzd) and other currency majors see Forexpros.
---
Euro Dollar (http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd)
The Euro broke the resistance 1.4935, and came very close to our first suggested target at 1.4998, when it reached a top at 1.4990, before retreating back to 1.49 this morning. Short-term resistance is provided by the falling trendline from yesterday's high on the intraday charts, which is currently at 1.4931. If this resistance is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.4998 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year. As for the support, stopping near Fibonacci 50% for the rising move from 1.4806 to yesterday's top 1.4990 makes it an important support at 1.4898, but the most important support is at 1.4786, and if broken we will be heading towards November 13th bottom 1.4820 first, then the most important support at this stage 1.4786, where there is Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4625 to 1.5047. Especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this.
Support:
1.4876: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rise from 1.4806 to 1.4990.
1.4820: November 13th low.
1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.
Resistance:
1.4931: the falling trendline from yesterday's top on the intraday charts.
1.4998: intraday top from Monday.
1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.
---
USD/JPY
Dollar-Yen is still holding on above 89 , but on the other hand it was not able to surpass the previous top at 89.52. Now, the price is trying hard to hold above 89, where Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term is at 89.01. If this level holds, we will see an upward correction, while breaking this level in specific indicates a continuation of the downside movement towards 88.13, which is the last important support before the last 15 years low 87.10. As for the resistance, the most important for short-term is November 11th low 89.23, breaking it would initiate a correction that would ideally target 89.87. This level is the most important resistance at the moment, and a candidate to initiate a new down move (of course that is in case we get there), only breaking this level would change our expectations to the upside, when we target 90.73.
Support:
89.01: short-term Fibonacci 61.8%
88.13: Oct 13th low.
87.10: Jan 12th low.
Resistance:
89.27: Nov 11th low.
89.87: Fibonacci 61.8% for short-term.
90.73: intraday top.
---
Analysis by Forexpros - Written by Munther Marji.
For information on Central Banks (http://www.forexpros.com/central-banks) see Forexpros.
---
Disclaimer
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
__________________
Forexpros.com - Bringing you live news, analysis advanced charts and quotes.
Check out our new and improved Technical Studies (http://www.forexpros.com/technical/technical-studies) Section.
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