Circuit City (CC) Potential

[Luc1Grunt]

Knocking on the door.

2036

[BuyOnDips]

IMO, BBY is a better play. The good news about CC is everybody hates the stock. So they really have to try hard to disappoint people. They've missed their numbers for at least the last 4 qtrs. Most expect them to do bad. Maybe they'll get a bump this winter since electronics should sell very well this Christmas season. MSFT, AAPL, LOGI, INTC and GRMN products have been selling extremely well. I'd still rather own Best Buy since they are best of breed in that category and are still undervalued with a forward P/E of only 13.3. Of course if CC price continues to fall, there's always the chance of somebody taking them private. FWIW, I always buy my computer/electronic stuff at Best Buy or Newegg.com. I haven't been to a CC store in years.

[Luc1Grunt]

What do you see in this chart? I would not recommend long unless it goes against the grain. Set-up for a very easy short. Confirmation is needed.

[Albert0373]

Yep, luci's trying to point out the descending triangle, indicating a possible fall soon.

[BuyOnDips]

I thought you wanted to go long for a bounce. My bad. I could see the stock going to $5-$6 range. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets taken private within a year. Jeff Macke called it the worst retail stock out there.

[Luc1Grunt]

I didn't call it either way. It cannot and should not be called at this point.

It will likely present an opportunity very soon. With this set-up, it is "probable" for a breakdown. A close below the line will trigger many sells and a further dive.

I would only look at a long position if it held 9 or better. I would not likely look at a long in this thing period. 8O

Good, solid descending triangle to watch and learn from.....IMO. :idea:

[clavocat]

I wanted to get long this stock, IMO they are better than BBY, not the stock but the store. They are always the cheapest out there, I GUARANTEE it. look on the website...that being said, I still wanted to short it for easy money, good chart point out luc. It will most likely break down but hopefully we get a bounce to the upside. I was talking to a lady at my house last week and she worked for CC corporate, so I talked to her and tried to get some inside info. To sum up what she said, "I go to work everyday knowing it may be my last day". Kinda sux imo because I HATE HATE HATE going to best buy and if they go out of business I'll have to. :oops:

[TonyM]

I wanted to get long this stock, IMO they are better than BBY, not the stock but the store. They are always the cheapest out there, I GUARANTEE it. look on the website...that being said, I still wanted to short it for easy money, good chart point out luc. It will most likely break down but hopefully we get a bounce to the upside. I was talking to a lady at my house last week and she worked for CC corporate, so I talked to her and tried to get some inside info. To sum up what she said, "I go to work everyday knowing it may be my last day". Kinda sux imo because I HATE HATE HATE going to best buy and if they go out of business I'll have to. :oops:


They are not the cheapest by a long shot. I can find the same products cheaper with a google search and get free shipping and avoid paying tax to boot.

Perhaps you meant that they are the cheapest electronics brick and mortar store? I'm not convinced about that, but in either case I don't see why anyone would visit one other than to get a live look at what I want to order from someone else online.

[Albert0373]

They are not the cheapest by a long shot. I can find the same products cheaper with a google search and get free shipping and avoid paying tax to boot.

Perhaps you meant that they are the cheapest electronics brick and mortar store? I'm not convinced about that, but in either case I don't see why anyone would visit one other than to get a live look at what I want to order from someone else online.

Two words, anybody somewhat of a tech. person should know them, Fry's Electronics. outpost.com

Huge store, comparable to a clothes department store such as Macy's etc., heckuva lot cheaper than Best Buy/Circuit City.

[netwrangler]

Two words, anybody somewhat of a tech. person should know them, Fry's Electronics. outpost.com

Huge store, comparable to a clothes department store such as Macy's etc., heckuva lot cheaper than Best Buy/Circuit City.Well, not always cheaper in my experience.

I find Fry's a good source for folks who know exactly what they want. The two problems with shopping there that I have seen people have are:


Some of their "specials" are tech versions of the old stripped-down car model ploy. By the time you price in the "extras," you are no longer saving money.
Some of their "specials" appear to have some QC problems. I got a terrific buy on a desk-top sound system, for instance, but it took me three tries. The first two were dead out of the box. [A tech-oriented friend had a similar experience.]


Personally, I find Fry's big-store business model a problem because I have to travel out of "greater" Thousand Oaks [aka, The Conejo Valley] to shop there. BestBuy, CC, Office Depot, Staples, Office Max, and PC Club all have stores in The Conejo. With high gas prices and that number of local options, I don't get to Fry's that much any more.

This is only anecdotal stuff, and not that recent to boot. I'd be interested in what others say about shopping at Fry's.

[Luc1Grunt]

Well, not always cheaper in my experience.

I find Fry's a good source for folks who know exactly what they want. The two problems with shopping there that I have seen people have are:

Some of their "specials" are tech versions of the old stripped-down car model ploy. By the time you price in the "extras," you are no longer saving money.
Some of their "specials" appear to have some QC problems. I got a terrific buy on a desk-top sound system, for instance, but it took me three tries. The first two were dead out of the box. [A tech-oriented friend had a similar experience.]
Personally, I find Fry's big-store business model a problem because I have to travel out of "greater" Thousand Oaks [aka, The Conejo Valley] to shop there. BestBuy, CC, Office Depot, Staples, Office Max, and PC Club all have stores in The Conejo. With high gas prices and that number of local options, I don't get to Fry's that much any more.

This is only anecdotal stuff, and not that recent to boot. I'd be interested in what others say about shopping at Fry's.

Agreed. A "Frys" thread would be good. :D

[netwrangler]

Agreed. A "Frys" thread would be good. :DWhat about some [mini] sector threads?

This thread could easily segué into a tech-retail 'mini'. MonkeyBrains had one started with Nordstrom that picked up Urban Outfitter. Upscale clothiers mini?

I think sector selection, rotation, and diversification are important elements of portfolio management. Also, I find it easier to do fundy analysis on a company vis-a-vis its peers, as opposed to stand alone evaluations.

Hey, it's just a thought.

[Luc1Grunt]

Today CC is in gain mode. That's why calling it at this point is a gamble.

Chart was for discussion on the pattern and how the stock performs over the next days/weeks. The stock "fundamentally" is a non-issue except for a cursory check as it to why it is priced where it currently is and any pending "significant" events....merger, bankruptcy etc.

Breakthrough of support can be a significant opportunity to short as this pattern has a high probability of large sell-offs once broken. And when broken the stock usually drops too quickly to allow stops and reduction of losses.

A breakout of resistance confirms a double bottom and has the probability of a low risk - high reward potential. The stop would rest near the previous resistance (new support).

The price is now between those two opportunities and calling it is risky in regards to risk vs. reward. There is a long trade possible with a stop at support, but good luck determining the reward.

;)

[netwrangler]

Back to CC:

Here's a chart based on 30min intraday values.

I like the way 30min data chunks show the relationship of volume to up and down movement during the day.
I'm not sure how the 30min values relate to support and resistance.

http://i24.tinypic.com/2vv51lc.jpg

Looks to me like CC gapped up, broke through Monday's intraday high of 8.23, but stalled around the prior Thursday close / Friday open of 8.33. From there,
profit taking dominated — with the price falling on increased volume at the close.

Questions:

In a chart like this, are intraday highs and lows valid as support or resistance points? Did I draw the right lines? Are there other lines I should have drawn?
Does the MACD chart have meaning in this time frame? [I know, RTFB. Still, I'd like your thoughts..]

Please see my next post for related questions/issues.

[TonyM]

Have you tried using Barchart.com (www.barchart.com) for support/resistance as well as other technical indicators? If not you may find it useful in technical analysis, just enter the ticker symbol for a quote and then choose the technical analysis you're interested in. Projections lists the s/r areas.

[Luc1Grunt]

Net, couple quick comments for discussion only and by all means not "all-inclusive".

The stock came into today way oversold. I would assert many bought on the oversold technical side (bounce play). I say that because of the sell off at the EOD. That's retail, still don't know why 8.00 is such strong support and who is holding it up (fair value-cheap?).

I do not use MACD....did at one time, but too laggy and too often wrong. Confirmation of an assumption only (for me).

I am looking for this to hit around 8.50 in the next couple days then back to support at 8. I say that with a smile and not as a prediction. That, to me, would show the further pattern of the stock and make the 8.00 suport something to really watch.

See if tomorrow shows or continues an upward trend (higher high, lower low).

Of course we have FED insanity week that turns the whole field into a dart board...chuckle.

Good discussion. :idea:

[netwrangler]

This chart shows the same data as my prior post, but only 6+ days, as opposed to 10+ days.

http://i22.tinypic.com/ht8a38.jpg

In this chart there are intraday pivot point, support, and resistance lines. I kept the "resistance" lines from the prior chart.

So...which lines apply?

I strongly suspect the answer is, "It depends."
If so, fair enough. Can you tell me anything about those dependencies?

———
In many ways, I feel like a 16-year old kid [yeah, you wish, grampa :p] who just got his driver's license and whose [overindulgent] Dad gave him a Porsche. I have some really good tools available to me. I really wish I knew the best way to use them.

[Luc1Grunt]

Have you tried using Barchart.com (http://www.barchart.com) for support/resistance as well as other technical indicators? If not you may find it useful in technical analysis, just enter the ticker symbol for a quote and then choose the technical analysis you're interested in. Projections lists the s/r areas.


Tony, any idea how they code the "trend spotter"? Parabolic SAR? I'll do a little more digging later.

[netwrangler]

Tony, any idea how they code the "trend spotter"? Parabolic SAR? I'll do a little more digging later.Here's the Skinney, if they use Paraboic SAR:

The Parabolic SAR (stop and reverse) is a trend-following indicator that may help establish stop loss parameters, as well as signaling opportune times to buy or sell a stock. Because it's a trend-following indicator, it tends to be less useful in a sideways market and more useful in a strongly trending market.

A line above the price may indicate a bearish trend, and a line below the price may point to a bullish stock.

The formula is

SARTomorrow = SARToday + AF (EPTrade – SARToday)

where AF (Acceleration Factor) is one of a progression of numbers beginning at .02 and ending at .20. The AF is increased by .02 each day that a new high is made. You can change these values by editing the Minimum Step and Maximum Step fields when setting up the study on your chart.

And EPTrade = Extreme Price Point of the trade made so far. If you choose Long from the Position drop-down, EP is the extreme high price for the trade; if Short, EP is the extreme low price for the trade.

================
Doncha lovit?
I can give you the formula, but I don't know why I should care about it.

Well, wait 'till next week - or so.

[Luc1Grunt]

Were those S/P and R for today? I misunderstood the first part of the post. If so, the gap up never looked back!!

On the parabolic...the tie in with Trend spotter?

I used parabolic SAR with forex during longer trends, but again laggy in short time intervals. Rapid whipsaws destroyed the usefuleness (obviously).

[clavocat]

They are not the cheapest by a long shot. I can find the same products cheaper with a google search and get free shipping and avoid paying tax to boot.

Perhaps you meant that they are the cheapest electronics brick and mortar store? I'm not convinced about that, but in either case I don't see why anyone would visit one other than to get a live look at what I want to order from someone else online.

again disagree, Verse Best buy they win EVERY TIME. They also kill office max/office depot, walmart (better selection). That's all we have around here pretty much, plus I get 15 dollar coupons, they price match online and they will take ANYTHING back with no hassle. You have to wait for specials though, I've researched this for countless hours, I've spent over 10k between me and my fam/friends over the past 3 or so years and everytime CC won. You CAN find better deals online but you don't have the convenience to talking to people, and the security of easily taking it back. Maybe my circuit city store is much easier to work with than others :?:.

First thing I looked at CC kills frys

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Onkyo-HT-SR600-5-1-Channel-Home-Theater-System-Black-HT-SR600/sem/rpsm/oid/179767/catOid/-13325/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do
http://shop3.outpost.com/product/5226137;jsessionid=2EfhfN37jfP3CQmJuIeyCA**.node1? site=sr:SEARCH:MAIN_RSLT_PG

Then subtract 15 bux and shipping if there is any AND convenience of getting it ASAP and being able to exchange it. :mrgreen: I hope they don't go out of business. I love it 45 bux cheaper!!

[Luc1Grunt]

Is anyone really considering selling or buying this stock? 8O

[TonyM]

Tony, any idea how they code the "trend spotter"? Parabolic SAR? I'll do a little more digging later.

Thanks for thinking that I might have a clue as to how they formulate any of the tech indicators but algebra was not a class I showed up to a lot of the time in H.S.

I do try to look at volume and rsi on the 1 min chart after copying the s/r and pivot info before trading starts, I have found that using them anytime after trading has begun makes them less reliable, although it can become necessary if S2 is severely broken and you're trying to figure out where the seriously oversold area is.

I try to keep the technical stuff very simple as it seems the more I throw into the mix the less clear things become. Usually I note the s/r 1 and 2 and pivot as I mentioned and also look for a long exit or short entry at rsi over 70% and failure to break a resistance level and a long entry or short exit at an rsi under 30% and support holding well, good volume on each end is a plus as well. I also like to see an engulfing candlestick to really confirm the reversal, but they are not always present as I'm sure you know. And I like to check all of the preceding stuff against the S&P 1 min candlestick chart and if I'm lucky find a stock that lags the moves in the spooz but follows nonetheless.

Damn, that was a long-winded way of saying I don't know how they code it:oops:

[TonyM]

again disagree, Verse Best buy they win EVERY TIME. They also kill office max/office depot, walmart (better selection). That's all we have around here pretty much, plus I get 15 dollar coupons, they price match online and they will take ANYTHING back with no hassle. You have to wait for specials though, I've researched this for countless hours, I've spent over 10k between me and my fam/friends over the past 3 or so years and everytime CC won. You CAN find better deals online but you don't have the convenience to talking to people, and the security of easily taking it back. Maybe my circuit city store is much easier to work with than others :?:.

First thing I looked at CC kills frys

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Onkyo-HT-SR600-5-1-Channel-Home-Theater-System-Black-HT-SR600/sem/rpsm/oid/179767/catOid/-13325/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do
http://shop3.outpost.com/product/5226137;jsessionid=2EfhfN37jfP3CQmJuIeyCA**.node1? site=sr:SEARCH:MAIN_RSLT_PG

Then subtract 15 bux and shipping if there is any AND convenience of getting it ASAP and being able to exchange it. :mrgreen: I hope they don't go out of business. I love it 45 bux cheaper!!

Well, we could always have a forum contest to see who can find a particular item at the lowest cost.

I despise going to an actual store of any kind and have spent untold thousands online (I'm a gadget freak) and don't have any problems. I enjoy doing the online research and usually find myself enlightened on the product line afterwards to the point of being a quasi-expert.

Fwiw, even Amazon regularly beats out CC in my experience.

[netwrangler]

Well, we could always have a forum contest to see who can find a particular item at the lowest cost.

I despise going to an actual store of any kind and have spent untold thousands online (I'm a gadget freak) and don't have any problems. I enjoy doing the online research and usually find myself enlightened on the product line afterwards to the point of being a quasi-expert.

Fwiw, even Amazon regularly beats out CC in my experience.
Amazon was clearly the best source when I was shopping for a Moto H700 Bluetooth.
Staples got my vote for their price on a matched pair of 2-gig USB flash-drives.
BestBuy sold us the Sony Bravia LCD HDTV in August. Haven't seen a better price than their sale price.
CC used to have an edge in the gaming area, but lost that edge when a new GameStop opened in town.
PC Club gets my business for motherboards, PC cabinets, memory & such.
I often use the click & mortar combo at BestBuy — ordering on line and taking delivery at the local store.

CC just can't quite compete in the tech-mall jungle that is Thousand Oaks. ;)

[Albert0373]

again disagree, Verse Best buy they win EVERY TIME. They also kill office max/office depot, walmart (better selection). That's all we have around here pretty much, plus I get 15 dollar coupons, they price match online and they will take ANYTHING back with no hassle. You have to wait for specials though, I've researched this for countless hours, I've spent over 10k between me and my fam/friends over the past 3 or so years and everytime CC won. You CAN find better deals online but you don't have the convenience to talking to people, and the security of easily taking it back. Maybe my circuit city store is much easier to work with than others :?:.

First thing I looked at CC kills frys

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Onkyo-HT-SR600-5-1-Channel-Home-Theater-System-Black-HT-SR600/sem/rpsm/oid/179767/catOid/-13325/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do
http://shop3.outpost.com/product/5226137;jsessionid=2EfhfN37jfP3CQmJuIeyCA**.node1? site=sr:SEARCH:MAIN_RSLT_PG

Then subtract 15 bux and shipping if there is any AND convenience of getting it ASAP and being able to exchange it. :mrgreen: I hope they don't go out of business. I love it 45 bux cheaper!!



There isn't one store when you can get anything cheapest; some place offer it lower than others. I shop for my computer parts, home/tv audio, anything tech related from multiple places, usually newegg, ebay, amazon if via online. Use Google Products and it'll compare online prices from other online stores as well. I check out the actual product itself at the store first then I buy them online if its cheaper or if I can't wait for it to ship I buy it the store. There's no need to outright say one store is better than the others.

To counter your CC < Fry's example, here's mine:

Samsung 58" Plasma HDTV Model FPT5884

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Samsung-58-Plasma-HDTV-FP-T5884/sem/rpsm/oid/190720/catOid/-12869/rpem/ccd/productDetail.do
http://shop4.outpost.com/product/5357438

Fry's $2999 < CC's $3699

And using Google's Products to compare prices, this comes up for $2746
http://www.millenniumcamera.com/viewproduct.aspx?ID=3554295&l=Froogle

I rest my case.

Edit: and you did state that you CAN get things online cheaper foregoing the ease of returns, etc. That's why I'd rather buy anything expensive in person than online; plus I believe Fry's is able to sell for less on most of their products is because they're almost a wholesale business like Costco, they stock in large amounts and can afford to sell for less. Plus they have newspaper specials every week that are much lower than what they post online.

[Luc1Grunt]

Sleigh ride is open. Slope is fine. 8)

[BuyOnDips]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071106/circuit_city_executives.html?.v=2

I guess things are not going to good for them.

[Luc1Grunt]

Very high probability trade with massive reward vs. risk. Stop set at previous support (turned resistance) around 7.85 would have yielded up to 2.50 in a very short span. Note there was no limit on the downside as the trade set up.

I did not play this, but posted for a descending triangle, high probability setup. Of course this was before a long discussion on the "opinion" of the store itself took place, LOL.

2241