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netwrangler
10-24-2007, 05:21 PM
TRMB gapped down at the open this morning 14.2% below the prior close. They announced earnings yesterday, but I couldn't find a reason for the stock to gap down in the earnings report. The price later recovered to above the prior close and is now drifting slightly lower.

I am short NOV40 and NOV45 calls on TRMB as part of a covered call position. I missed an opportunity to buy back the calls, and then resell them on the bounce. If I had bought to close the calls when the stock was a $38 and sold to reopen the calls when the stock bounced back to $42, I was looking at $65/contract on the NOV45s and $225/contract on the NOV40s. But I was too busy trying to figure out why the gap to see opportunity pounding on the door!

Two questions:

There were several Form4s listed in TRMBs company news reports. The total shares number of involved was ~170,000 or close to 30% of TRMBs average volume. Am I reading the Form4s correctly? Does that number of shares look like a probable cause for the gap?

Seems like there are several alerts I could have set that would have prodded me to look at buying back the calls. The simplest would have been activate an alert set to trigger at, say $38/share and titled "buy calls to close, dummy". At some point buying the calls is obviously the best strategy:

a needed first step in unwinding the covered call position if the stock continues to fall,
a way to set up a profit opportunity if the stock bounces back.

Seems like there would be additional ploys using puts as well. Please feel free to coach, folks, I'm going to school here.


BTW: Bought half of the long stock position in TRMB last November for a split adjusted price of just over $22. I've milked the covered call cow several times since then. The original position goes to LT Cap Gains before expiry of the NOV options. Sweet!

microhedge
10-24-2007, 05:38 PM
Don't play options Net but had to extend honors to a fellow TRMB player... one of my very few long positions... ive mentioned on the forum a couple of times.

TRMB will plug away and I will hold 75% and trade 25% on the swings.

Good luck on the options!

netwrangler
10-24-2007, 06:27 PM
Don't play options Net but had to extend honors to a fellow TRMB player... one of my very few long positions... ive mentioned on the forum a couple of times.

TRMB will plug away and I will hold 75% and trade 25% on the swings.

Good luck on the options!Your work experience puts you in a good spot to appreciate the value of Trimble's "Connected Construction Site" product suite.

They are opening [have opened?] a factory in China. I figure their construction products are perfectly positioned to take advantage of China's expanding economy. Asian revenue is 12% of the total now, but will [IMH-bc-O] increase.

In theory, Trimble's agricultural products should suit the market just as well. I have a little problem, however, thinking of Chinese agricultural following the same model as, say, the one ADM uses in the States.

What I like about Trimble is that they have not gone after the retail customer. In making that decision, they dodged a slew of retail swings. This is not to say that they don't have their share of challenges. But I do think they are under appreciated by the investment community.

uhh...Last August, I got a chance to visit Trimble's "Rockies" location in Westminster, CO. I met their ROI analyst. We bonded immediately :wink:

microhedge
10-24-2007, 07:42 PM
Wow Net, not only are you a fellow TRMBer, you remember my past work history?! Gotta hand it to you man, that's impressive... but what's even more impressive is that you met Trimble's ROI analyst!!!!

They do have Shanghai operations and you can bet they are banking on a huge increase in Asian revenue in my opinion, wait, i mean imo, sorry:wink:

They have seemed to me to stay dead on their game and are establishing a true solid foundation on products that "matter" in (construction and ag) and not just hit the shelves with B2C crap. However, their products in the hands of Chinese agriculture does indeed conjure up some downright comical pictures in my mind : ) But I believe they wish to be on the forefront in this arena and not in a coat tail ride 2 years down the road.

I look forward to growing with them as I am confident they will become another GRMN (in pps that is). They will forge ahead and become 'noticed' in the meanwhile I will continue to amass the unappreciated shares.:wink:

netwrangler
10-24-2007, 08:20 PM
Wow Net, not only are you a fellow TRMBer, you remember my past work history?! Gotta hand it to you man, that's impressive... but what's even more impressive is that you met Trimble's ROI analyst!!!!

They do have Shanghai operations and you can bet they are banking on a huge increase in Asian revenue in my opinion, wait, i mean imo, sorry:wink:

They have seemed to me to stay dead on their game and are establishing a true solid foundation on products that "matter" in (construction and ag) and not just hit the shelves with B2C crap. However, their products in the hands of Chinese agriculture does indeed conjure up some downright comical pictures in my mind : ) But I believe they wish to be on the forefront in this arena and not in a coat tail ride 2 years down the road.

I look forward to growing with them as I am confident they will become another GRMN (in pps that is). They will forge ahead and become 'noticed' in the meanwhile I will continue to amass the unappreciated shares.:wink:My information is that the Shanghai Ops do not involve the 'hard to do' technology. As I'm sure you know, Trimble acquired a portion of Zeiss not too long ago. Might as well let the lens experts make the lenses—or the like.

On the other hand, having a factory in China does cut costs [and gains entry to markets]. Yeah, I like this company.

Re the ROI analyst: We shook hands. My host told me his job. I said, "I did that." He said, "Really?"....Our eyes met....I think we have a lunch coming the next time I am in Denver. That said, the conversation will probably center on boring ROI stuff.

Rest assured, I have no insider information about Trimble. I do have some personal contacts that tend to strengthen my faith in the publicly known stuff.