JWN Nordstroms

[MonkeyBrains]

Being a girl and knowing just how much dough I drop at Nordstroms every month I thought I would take a look at it. It seems to me that even though it came up a little short in 3Q earnings that it might be time to pick up. What do you all think?

I just know that when I go in there, it's always packed with women. We go there to celebrate. We go there in mourning time. We go there when we're bored. When we have nothing to wear. When we have something to wear already. We just end up there somehow. Like a beacon in the night, we are drawn there.

JWN

[Svenwulf]

first, welcome to the board. second, the following is only my opinion. jwn, although a solid brand, faces the headwind of the perceived decline of the "wealth effect" here in the us. this will most likely squeeze the marginal "trade up" customer, upon which jwn might be very reliant. of course the demise of the us consumer has only be heralded for about 20 years, and the holiday season could add some upside fuel to jwn. imho, tif is a much more solid investment. i know nothing of fashion or the dynamic you describe in your post, but i know tif just upped their dividend not too far back, and technically speaking is flirting with its 50 dma today giving a nice entry point. again, all just my opinion, and best wishes.

[netwrangler]

Being a girl and knowing just how much dough I drop at Nordstroms every month I thought I would take a look at it. It seems to me that even though it came up a little short in 3Q earnings that it might be time to pick up. What do you all think?

I just know that when I go in there, it's always packed with women. We go there to celebrate. We go there in mourning time. We go there when we're bored. When we have nothing to wear. When we have something to wear already. We just end up there somehow. Like a beacon in the night, we are drawn there.

JWNFWIW: My wife and one of our daughters agree with you. [The other daughter seems unable to incorporate a Nordstroms wardrobe with her Soccer Mom persona—much to the dismay of Mom and Sis.]

Certainly JWN is in a 'dip'. I think the market could be looking at a poor forecast for the Christmas season in general as well as JWN Q3 earnings. That said, it's a tempting stock. I'm a covered call investor usually. My 'knee-jerk' trade would be to buy at 38 and sell a NOV40 call for a buck. Upside cap is roughly 7.5% at expiry. Only ~2.5% protection downside, which may not be enough. I figure this sector to get killed in a downturn.

Let's see what others might say.

[Bman409]

Being a girl and knowing just how much dough I drop at Nordstroms every month I thought I would take a look at it. It seems to me that even though it came up a little short in 3Q earnings that it might be time to pick up. What do you all think?

I just know that when I go in there, it's always packed with women. We go there to celebrate. We go there in mourning time. We go there when we're bored. When we have nothing to wear. When we have something to wear already. We just end up there somehow. Like a beacon in the night, we are drawn there.

JWN




Here's my take on ALL of the retailers, including Nordstroms....

The danger to retailers is that the Fed is probably going to KEEP cutting rates..

Bad for importers.. good for exporters

I wouldn't buy any retailers here

(from today's issue of my newsletter)


At this point, rate cuts are leading directly to weakness in the US dollar. As the US dollar continues to fall against other major currencies in the world, the cost of imported goods is rising (as a result of the US dollar losing purchasing power). Most retailers rely heavily on imported goods, especially the discount and apparel companies. In addition, the weakening dollar is contributing to rising costs for commodities like crude oil and also pushing freight rates for international cargo ships higher (at least in terms of US dollars). This means transportation costs for imported goods are rising as well. Right now it appears the retailers are being forced to simply absorb these increased costs as the retail environment is too competitive for price increases to offset the rising costs. All of this means that further rate cuts which could lead to further weakness in the US dollar could actually HURT retail related stocks

[Bman409]

In short, you might like to shop there

in fact, you might like to shop there ALOT....

problem is, your money is losing value every day, and the cost to these companies to keep you supplied with Chinese junk is rising...

The cost to make the junk is rising, and the cost to ship the junk to California is rising.. and the cost to load it on a truck and truck it to your mall is rising..

The cost to light and heat the mall is skyrocketing as well


But your paycheck is stagnant.. so they can't really raise prices or you won't keep shopping there...

Sucks to be them

[MonkeyBrains]

Thanks for the explanation Bman.:wink:

[clavocat]

IMO, I haven't looked at the fundamentals, but for the chart aspect it's not moving up much therefore it is probably not growing much. No growth= no buy IMHO.

BMAN I have to disagree with you about ALL, check out Guess, that thing is growing. GES.

[Bman409]

Thanks for the explanation Bman.:wink:

JWN holding up ok today though


that's a good sign

it might be good for a tradeable bounce here


I personally wouldn't choose this one, to play that angle.. but nevertheless.. it might work