CROX looking for 70

[Jordan]

Just got in at 65.50, looking for 70 in the next few days and lot more into earnings.

[freakscene]

i just finished Peter Lynch's book "Beating the Street", and decided to take some of his advice about how to look for good investments without being an insider. I too looked at CROX this weekend, and noticed that had I paid attention to my wife and kids craze over these things last winter, I could have gotten in around the 20 dollar per share price.

ugh

At the current price do you think this still has potential as a good investment, or are you strictly in short term?

[clavocat]

Crox is a crock, I think they're the most hideous things. But everyone likes them so why not make some money on them. I remember when this came out on IPO, I was going to trade it, but had no idea what it was then. If I'd take a position it'd be short term, long term they will look like decker (DECK) run and fall, unless they can keep designing new products.

[Damon]

Sold CROX today for a quick 11% gain.

[freakscene]

i dumped msft into crox about an hour ago, and havent regretted it yet.

man this is addicting !!!

[Damon]

http://qdvdauthor.sourceforge.net/images/homer_doh.png

[freakscene]

i got out at 68.12 for better than a dollar a share gain in an hour and a half or so

my best day ever combined with msft !

[Damon]

I sold you those shares. That was supposed to be my dollar. http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

[freakscene]

8)

looking at how this is finishing, we both sold too early !

70 might be coming next week.

[Jordan]

Still holding, looking for 70+ next week

[freakscene]

at the rate its going it might only need the next 15 minutes

just hit 69.00

[Jordan]

They will be releasing earnings between Oct.29th and Nov. 8th, look for it to keep going up into earnings

[Luc1Grunt]

Just jumping in here to provide absolutely no value to this thread....

I pondered CROX at 15, 20, 22, 25, 30, 40, and again at 50. I never bought a share. I've never even traded it intra-day!

At 15 a share I looked at 500 shares for the long term, just never pulled the trigger! ------> Insert sound of hammer bashing forehead. <-----

Needless to say, I cannot even stomach looking at those ugly POS without thinking of opportunities lost!

Good luck and rape 'em for what I missed!!!!! 8)

[madcowdisease]

Just jumping in here to provide absolutely no value to this thread....

I pondered CROX at 15, 20, 22, 25, 30, 40, and again at 50. I never bought a share. I've never even traded it intra-day!

At 15 a share I looked at 500 shares for the long term, just never pulled the trigger! ------> Insert sound of hammer bashing forehead. <-----

Needless to say, I cannot even stomach looking at those ugly POS without thinking of opportunities lost!

Good luck and rape 'em for what I missed!!!!! 8)

That makes two of us. I'll take you one step further. I literally lived off of Chipotle [CMG] in college and wanted nothing more than a stake in this company since 2003 as the lines were routinely around the block on campus at lunch time. A year after graduation it went public at a P/E I felt was much too high and I stayed away and it dropped off the radar. As I write, it is approacing a three bagger in ~20 months since its IPO and I kick myself every time the talking heads on CNBC bring up its quarterly earnings.

[Jordan]

http://www.surfanddirt.com/nofear/assets/product_images/PAAAIAMNMADCGNENt.jpg

These should sell good during the winter, a warmer version...

[madcowdisease]

http://www.surfanddirt.com/nofear/assets/product_images/PAAAIAMNMADCGNENt.jpg

These should sell good during the winter, a warmer version...

Are they lined throughout or just at the cuff? My understanding of part of the appeal is the waterproof nature of the shoe and the fact they are breathable. It seems in the height of winter you'd have an issue with melting snow getting in the holes and causing soggy feet. Just a thought without having seen them in person.

[aiki14]

That makes two of us. I'll take you one step further. I literally lived off of Chipotle [CMG] in college and wanted nothing more than a stake in this company since 2003 as the lines were routinely around the block on campus at lunch time. A year after graduation it went public at a P/E I felt was much too high and I stayed away and it dropped off the radar. As I write, it is approacing a three bagger in ~20 months since its IPO and I kick myself every time the talking heads on CNBC bring up its quarterly earnings.

Three's the charm, I never considered CROX, and don't follow it, and I have to my knowledge never even seen a Chipotle.
You guys think you've added nothing but compared to me you both wrote the declaration of independence.
That's adding nothing.

Now back to the thread :wink:

[Jordan]

Are they lined throughout or just at the cuff? My understanding of part of the appeal is the waterproof nature of the shoe and the fact they are breathable. It seems in the height of winter you'd have an issue with melting snow getting in the holes and causing soggy feet. Just a thought without having seen them in person.



Hmmm, good question, I am not sure.
I do know that my girlfriend and my sister want a pair though. I will be getting a couple pairs for them for Christmas.

[madcowdisease]

Hmmm, good question, I am not sure.
I do know that my girlfriend and my sister want a pair though. I will be getting a couple pairs for them for Christmas.

I made Christmas presents out of them last year to my mom and sister. I even ended up with a pair of the black flip-flops. They're nice in the summer but I question the winter versions.

[netwrangler]

Three's the charm, I never considered CROX, and don't follow it, and I have to my knowledge never even seen a Chipotle.Never seen a chipotle? You poor underprivileged person, you. Ya gotta come to SoCal and get some real chipotle flavor.

BTW: My [half] brother lives near Concord, NH. He comes out here a couple of times a year—ostensibly to see me. I know better. He comes out here for true Mexican food.

I'll bet [new member] 'primer' knows about Lalo's in Moorpark!

Y'all come, Aiki. We'll be happy to show you [and family] the joys of the chiplotle. I'm buying.

[Jordan]

Might test week hight today

[Jordan]

Just passed 52 week high!! Looking for alot more into earnings

[freakscene]

ok, how many rookie mistakes am i making with this one?

i got back in this morning at 70.25. Will hold through earnings.

Chasing earnings and selling too early are two mistakes i see. :)

its 73.25 and counting

[freakscene]

I'm not too certain yet how "after hour" prices are figured. But I watched CROX drop almost 50% of its value a few hours ago

Strangely enough, now its reporting 0.00% "after hours" and the last time stamp reported is from 7:59PM ET.

Is this normal?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crox

[Luc1Grunt]

I'm not too certain yet how "after hour" prices are figured. But I watched CROX drop almost 50% of its value a few hours ago

Strangely enough, now its reporting 0.00% "after hours" and the last time stamp reported is from 7:59PM ET.

Is this normal?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crox


? I'm showing 73.00 x 73.50 BxA

[freakscene]

Thats weird. I refreshed. Opened a new browser and still get:

After Hours: 72.20 0.00 (0.00%) as of 7:59PM ET on 10/29/07

I wouldnt think anything of it had I not witnessed it dropping about 50% of its value briefly after hours.

I'll go by your numbers ;)

Cheers

[freakscene]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/071030/20071030005541.html?.v=1

Crocs, Inc. to Broadcast Review of Third Quarter Fiscal 2007 Financial Results over the Internet
Tuesday October 30, 7:00 am ET


NIWOT, Colo.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Crocs, Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX - News) today announced that the Company’s conference call to review its third quarter fiscal 2007 financial results is expected to be broadcast live over the Internet on Wednesday, October 31, 2007 at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The broadcast will be available by clicking the ‘Investor Relations’ link under the Company section on www.crocs.com and at www.viavid.net. To listen to the broadcast, your computer must have Windows Media Player installed. If you do not have Windows Media Player, go to the latter site prior to the call, where you can download the software for free. An audio replay of the webcast will be archived on the Crocs website for two weeks.

[Luc1Grunt]

I'm not too certain yet how "after hour" prices are figured. But I watched CROX drop almost 50% of its value a few hours ago

Strangely enough, now its reporting 0.00% "after hours" and the last time stamp reported is from 7:59PM ET.

Is this normal?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=crox

You lost me on "dropping it's value 50%".:?

[freakscene]

Thats my fault for not explaining it very well. All apologies. On the yahoo finance page I linked I was watching it move down after hours fairly significantly while I was corresponding to some friends via email.

At one point, literally, the price of the stock dropped almost 50% according to what was reported in the line I copy and pasted. My mouth kinda dropped, and it caught my attention to the point of keeping a close eye on it. It then proceeded to go back in the next update to the exact close price of the day, and then did not appear to update any further.

I'll consider it just an anomaly since its going to open around 72.00.

Cheers

[RIMMjob]

Thats my fault for not explaining it very well. All apologies. On the yahoo finance page I linked I was watching it move down after hours fairly significantly while I was corresponding to some friends via email.

At one point, literally, the price of the stock dropped almost 50% according to what was reported in the line I copy and pasted. My mouth kinda dropped, and it caught my attention to the point of keeping a close eye on it. It then proceeded to go back in the next update to the exact close price of the day, and then did not appear to update any further.

I'll consider it just an anomaly since its going to open around 72.00.

Cheers

I always thought the drastic rise and falls after a stock reported earnings (drops if the reports were great, rises if the reports were bad) were people exercising any options they might have had in the stock. So when you heard the great earnings reports, and saw one aftermarket sale for -50% of the closing price, it just might have been someone who had a option to purchase it that low. So they made a killing.

[netwrangler]

I always thought the drastic rise and falls after a stock reported earnings (drops if the reports were great, rises if the reports were bad) were people exercising any options they might have had in the stock. So when you heard the great earnings reports, and saw one aftermarket sale for -50% of the closing price, it just might have been someone who had a option to purchase it that low. So they made a killing.Makes sense.

[freakscene]

ouch

[BuyOnDips]

Ouch is right. Down 18% after hours. It wasn't a bad Qtr either. They beat EPS. I guess it was priced to perfection. And when "priced to perfection stocks" don't crush the numbers, they get crushed(or you could say "they're on sale"). I always try to stay away from the high flyers. You can miss great runs, but if you get in too late, the hits can be devastating. I just hate chasing stocks. Be patient and wait for the dips.

[freakscene]

lesson learned for me.

thankfully i had a stop set which sold half my shares yesterday. (still learning)

[Jordan]

OUCH is right! not good

[Brandon]

OUCH agreed. I feel your pain. I've had similar days like this and it's never a good feeling in your stomach LOL.

I had a nice ride in CROX a while back and sold it a little while after the split. It was a great stock with a lot of momentum. I got out because I just didn't like all of the pressure and coverage it was getting along with the fact of the officers all selling at the same time.

I missed out on the next 20 points as it hit 75 today but I made some money and was happy.

I thought about getting back in it in the 60's but didn't.

What's everyones take on the future of the stock?

[Mojo]

Makes sense.

Group Think!

[Brandon]

Can someone shed some light here for me I am just trying to learn.

http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001334036&ticker=crox

If you look there you see all the insiders have been selling HARD for the past month yet you guys bought into the company?

I sold CROX last time after the split because I saw too much insider selling
but this time there is even more insider selling and a lot of you here are
buying???

So please explain so I know next time a situation like this happens if
I should look at the insiders to see if they are selling or buying to make
my move.... I am just trying to learn.

Appreciated :)

[Mojo]

Can someone shed some light here for me I am just trying to learn.

http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0001334036&ticker=crox

If you look there you see all the insiders have been selling HARD for the past month yet you guys bought into the company?

Brandon,

You just made a mockery of this thread with that post and the forum leaders that let all the others down the dark roads. Sounds like you know more then you think...yes, we should look at what the insiders are doing. (CROX down 22.60%)

[netwrangler]

Brandon,

You just made a mockery of this thread with that post and the forum leaders that let all the others down the dark roads. Sounds like you know more then you think...yes, we should look at what the insiders are doing. (CROX down 22.60%)
Now that's interesting.

Whatcha bet that Mojo and Brandon are kissin' cousins?

[Brandon]

I don't know the guy anymore than I know you but he did at least try to answer my question as to why people on here are buying into a company when insiders are selling hard especially leading up to earnings. That's more than you can say.

[freakscene]

the only one who bought it recently was me, and ive already fessed up to being a rookie. and all i lost were my microsoft profits

you dont know at what price anyone else paid other than jordan, so its quite possible all they lost are some profits

[BuyOnDips]

A much bigger "tell" than insider selling, was the fact that the stock was up over 260% during the last year. That's a high flyer priced to perfection. Anyway, I don't know much about the company. I know they make ugly, comfortable shoes that people are buying in droves. The company is making lots of bucks. Where the stock goes, I haven't a clue. I'm thinking it's 1999 again and I'm buying INTC, MSFT, CSCO and DELL on any dips.

[Brandon]

The original poster Jordan started it off and said he bought at 68.50 so he was obviously in it. Not picking on him just pointing out that he was in the stock because freakscene said I didn't know the price.

So then I guess my question is directed towards him or anyone that can answer me.

Why buy a stock when the insiders are dumping it?

So i guess freakscene are you going to look at that insider list next time? And what are your thoughts.

[Brandon]

A much bigger "tell" than insider selling, was the fact that the stock was up over 260% during the last year. That's a high flyer priced to perfection. Anyway, I don't know much about the company. I know they make ugly, comfortable shoes that people are buying in droves. The company is making lots of bucks. Where the stock goes, I haven't a clue. I'm thinking it's 1999 again and I'm buying INTC, MSFT, CSCO and DELL on any dips.

Thanks for answering my question and taking a stab at it. I'm not much of a rookie but far from a pro. That's why I was asking what may seem like a "rookie like question." I just want to get some advice from the pro's on this forum and better my trading.

[freakscene]

And what are your thoughts.


My thoughts are many. What can I learn from this is most important, but you should know I could lose my entire account and it would have little impact overall. 99% of my portfolio is boring dollar cost averaging managed by professionals. This is purely fun/educational; for now.

Several posts ago I pretty much foreshadowed the mistakes I was making.

:) <<< all smiles

[StockGod]

Sweet!

[aiki14]

Brandon,

You just made a mockery of this thread with that post and the forum leaders that let all the others down the dark roads. Sounds like you know more then you think...yes, we should look at what the insiders are doing. (CROX down 22.60%)


No "forum Leader" made any posts in any way touting this stock , in fact the only posts by folks with the designation we're negative or neutral towards the stock.
At this point you are clearly just a nuisance, with no real ability to contribute. I am glad you took your blog off your signature, your posts here are embarrassing enough, no need to take that to the next level and subject the unsuspecting to additional mindless drivel.

[Luc1Grunt]

No "forum Leader" made any posts in any way touting this stock , in fact the only posts by folks with the designation we're negative or neutral towards the stock.
At this point you are clearly just a nuisance, with no real ability to contribute. I am glad you took your blog off your signature, your posts here are embarrassing enough, no need to take that to the next level and subject the unsuspecting to additional mindless drivel.


Well said Aiki.

CROX is one of those that defy gravity and always seems overvalued. Then you watch it climb, and climb, and climb. NO ONE can "predict" when it will burst. Hindsite may show you an indicator or "news" you "should" have seen or watched, but in the end the high flyers run their own course.

Should have bought GOOG at 400! I mean 500!, Er, uh 550 was expensive! 750??????

BIDU anyone?

You can do cheetah flips all day chasing, but in the end it is YOUR money. Do what YOU decide to do.

[Luc1Grunt]

A great "trading lesson" will unfold for daytraders today. Watch fib retrace, volume, low bids, and the short covering into the bigger holders sell. The bounce will be worth at least 10 smackers......from there, only the market will tell.

Wish I could watch without interuption today! :(

[dadooh27]

Crocs clothes may be an overlooked boost to an ailing reptile. This is an old article but interesting.

Dadooh

No, the Clothes Don't Have Holes
By Rick Aristotle Munarriz August 31, 2007
16
Recommendations
If you love your Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX), your commitment no longer has to end at the ankle. Taking a page out of the Nike (NYSE: NKE) playbook, the fast-growing shoemaker is launching a clothing line in time for the holiday selling season.

Unlike companies such as Nike or Callaway Golf (NYSE: ELY), Crocs isn't just slapping an embroidered logo on a shirt. The shirts, shorts, and skirts will incorporate a garment-friendly version of Croslite -- the company's proprietary closed-cell resin -- to make the items unique in the apparel industry.

Move over, Under Armour (NYSE: UA)? Not quite. The original products aren't geared toward athletes and gym workout warriors. However, when you hear Crocs describe the benefits of the pliable version of Croslite with terms like "lightweight, versatile, breathable, and durable" and "resistant to harsh chemicals and heat, ensuring longevity after exposure to sun, UV light and sweat" it can be pretty mind-blowing.

What if Crocs is about to catch lightning in a bottle, again?

The company's signature shoes and their resin technology have been a hit. Sure, they may have looked ugly the first time you saw them out on the street, but the sometimes garishly colored shoes, with more holes than a slice of Swiss cheese, have transformed comfort into the mother of all fashion statements.

Investors have been rewarded handsomely for their faith. Crocs went public at $21 a share last year. Adjusted for a recent 2-for-1 split, the stock is nearly a six-bagger for its IPO shareholders.

Unlike Heelys (Nasdaq: HLYS) -- last year's other hot footwear IPO -- Crocs has continued to tread higher in 2007. Both companies were often treated as fad spinsters, but Heelys crashed into a brick wall without protective headwear this past quarter.

While Heelys has been talking down its near-term growth prospects, Crocs is letting its actions speak louder than Wall Street's words.

EPS
Est.
% Difference

Q1 2006
$0.09
$0.07
29%

Q2 2006
$0.20
$0.11
82%

Q3 2006
$0.27
$0.21
29%

Q4 2006
$0.26
$0.22
18%

Q1 2007
$0.31
$0.25
24%

Q2 2007
$0.58
$0.44
32%

Source: Thomson First Call

It's an impressive table, but check out the last three lines there. 18%? 24%? 32%? The actual magnitude of the positive surprise is accelerating. The rift between the company's actual earnings power and what analysts think is widening deliciously.

And this is just the shoes, people! The new clothing lines won't hit retailers until October. It may not be an instant hit. Many of the places selling Crocs shoes don't even stock apparel.

However, before you dismiss this as a dead-end potential catalyst, I beg of you to consider the Jibbitz.

Yes, I said Jibbitz.

So this is why your kids wants a Crocs shirt
If you're not familiar with the Jibbitz story, it's a good one. A stay-at-home mom begins making customized charms to add a little bling for the otherwise barren hole-sockets in her childrens' Crocs.

Her husband inspires her to dream bigger. A home equity loan later, the two are in business, crafting Jibbitz -- that's what the charms are called -- and scoring major points with licensed character deals.

Figuring it may as well cash in on the accessorizing phenomenon, Crocs acquired Jibbitz back in December.

Got that? Kids -- and a few adults that are kids at heart -- love to deck out their Crocs. Now let's go over the line of kids' clothing. The shorts, pants, and skirts allow children to accessorize their clothing with Jibbitz.

So put yourself in the shoes, quite literally, of a Crocs kid. They're hooked on the Jibbitz, and now they have a chance to expand the personalization process by decking out Crocs apparel with the charms. They're going to want the clothes. They're going to want to order more Jibbitz.

It's perfect, and even though the shares are no doubt richly valued at nearly 30 times this year's earnings, you still are months away from when the rest of the investing world will make the obvious connection.

As I noted before, your commitment doesn't have to end at your ankle. Move a few feet higher to your pocketbook. That's where the real commitment can have its advantages.

Under Armour is a sweet-fitting recommendation in the Rule Breakers newsletter service. What makes it tick? What makes it so special? Those answers and more can be had with a free 30-day trial subscription. No Jibbitz included.

Longtime Fool contributor Rick Munarriz loves how Crocs also come in collegiate colors. He does not own shares in any of the stocks in this story. He is also part of the Rule Breakers newsletter research team, seeking out tomorrow's ultimate growth stocks a day early. The Fool's disclosure policy is entirely free of holes.

[Niketennis1]

crocs got hit really hard today. 21 points is a lot!!! I think the stock had no really negative news to make it go so bad either. Crox is definatly on sale right now for smart investors.

[Damon]

Down over 25 points now. Stock lost 1/3 of it's value in one day.

[Jordan]

Down over 25 points now. Stock lost 1/3 of it's value in one day.

Wow, I do think it will come back...it should do well going into the holidays

[clavocat]

I said it back when people asked, It's a crock...at least the company. The stock is crazy, that being said......I'm lookin to take a slight position in this because of the nice hit it took today. I feel not for the investors that bought high with no due diligence. I'd let this settle tom. and maybe the next day and when it does/if it does then add/buy.

[clavocat]

looking at the chart it looks to be on support now, if that holds for 2-3 days I'd consider it a nice trade set up, but I will NEVER take a long term investment on this garbage.

[BuyOnDips]

Cramer said yesterday that he was through with the stock. He didn't like their Qtr. It's probably out of favor with most momentum players now. And is priced too high for value players. The same thing happened to RVBD a few days ago. These high flyers get hit hard when they miss.

[clavocat]

Cramer said yesterday that he was through with the stock. He didn't like their Qtr. It's probably out of favor with most momentum players now. And is priced too high for value players. The same thing happened to RVBD a few days ago. These high flyers get hit hard when they miss.

did they miss? I thought they hit on but didn't blow out earnings like investors had hoped. I think this stock's destiny was to fall regardless of the earnings. Now is it too pricey buyondips? guess time will tell, lets see if it holds that support.

[freakscene]

no they didnt miss. they actually beat expectations. they just didnt blow the roof off the sucka, i guess.

[Damon]

I read today that the board approved a buyback of up to 1 million shares. It'll be interesting to see where CROX is trading by the end of the year.

[clavocat]

I read today that the board approved a buyback of up to 1 million shares. It'll be interesting to see where CROX is trading by the end of the year.

why the buyback?? sign of weakening so they're trying to cut supply?

[Jordan]

If this can hold in this range, I think it will get back to at least 55 in a month

[Albert0373]

:lol:

2069

[netwrangler]

Luv it, Al. The image of Bush in Crocs & Socks, that is.

Have to say that image is one reason I don't think Crocs is going to be a fashion leader in 2008 — call it a hunch.

[dadooh27]

Do you think he gets those socks for free?

Dadooh

[netwrangler]

Do you think he gets those socks for free?

DadoohI certainly hope so. :)

[clavocat]

Do you think he gets those socks for free?

Dadooh

would anyone pay for those? hope not

[clavocat]

Anyone looking at crox now?!?!?! this thing is getting hammered and I think the P/E is back to surface, it blew through support and is on a new support level now on decreasing volume. Fundamentally and Technically it's screaming free money, but then again supply and demand rule the markets so maybe I'll wait for a bounce.

[BuyOnDips]

It ain't bouncing. It's free falling. Went down to $33.75 today. That's a heck of a fall. Like they say: "falling knives can be hazardous to your wealth".

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CROX&t=3m

You feel sorry for the guys that got in at the $70.00s and held on to it. That's being in the house of pain.

[TonyM]

Maybe someone with the time and interest could research how well a company like Nike did with their higher end shoes during the last recession? (yes I know we are not in a recession currently, but close enough for government work...literally)

[BuyOnDips]

Check out this article from Motley Fool.

http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/11/06/will-anyone-learn-from-crocs.aspx

"The last time I discussed the company, I pointed to some pretty obvious problems, foremost among them that it carried a market cap equal to about 20% of Nike's (NYSE: NKE), while producing not even 5% of Nike's revenues."

[TonyM]

Hey, something I agree with from Motley Fool...surely the end is nigh. Although from a strictly short term trading point of view, CROX may offer an opportunity if you're nimble.

[madcowdisease]

LULU is coming back to earth as well. I'm accumulating this one in my play account. Don't have the guts to get in with real $$$ until I see some stabilization.