2006 mid to long term "investments"

[Luc1Grunt]

Since this is a forum for "members to discuss their own stock ideas", how about a sticky thread for CY 2006 (6 month to 2 year) investments? Not a short run penny stock, no swing or day trades, just investment/trades to beat the averages or hedge against a downturn. I shoot for a standard 12% after comissions on longer trades. Dividends play a part.

Suggestions for posts:

up to 5 stocks.

Reasons ie, dividend, forward PE, estimates, analysts rating, PEG, chart trend, news, product/market share etc.

Any takers?

Thierry can you "STICKY" this?? Thanks, Luc

[Thierry Martin]

Luc,

Not sure why this needs to be a sticky.

[William Rennick]

Here's my big pick, I am shorting GOOGLE. Everyone who has an opinion about GOOG says that you can't short it, too dangerous. Well, I've been around long enough doing this to know what to do when sentiment is stacked one way or the other. Plus I just think that the overhyped way GOOGLE makes it's money doesn't have long term viability. I'll set my price at Fridays close of 430.00. And I'll set my target at 5 bucks, which will occur when the next best thing comes out. I really think this is a rare "lock" for a long term play.

[Luc1Grunt]

Thierry, not sure either.....just thinking; instead of searching through 100 posts, maybe at the top could be an easier source for this forum. Thanks for considering it.. Luc

[Luc1Grunt]

Coup[le I'm looking hard at on the above criteris....no pennies here though.

NFI....huge dividend, good financials

AA....labor "overtime" limits and new work hours effective 1 Jan. It WILL cut labor costs at least until the union can make some headway. Price is ....well, look at the charts. Nice dividend yield as well.

BUD.....still a great longer term with solid dividend, China effects it, %50 of US market, name, specialties. I do own this and have cost averaged for the past 10 years.

Plenty of short term / day picks and pennies with mad money, but we'll see how these do over the next few months.

Your take?

[jacobnbr1]

Here's my big pick, I am shorting GOOGLE. Everyone who has an opinion about GOOG says that you can't short it, too dangerous. Well, I've been around long enough doing this to know what to do when sentiment is stacked one way or the other. Plus I just think that the overhyped way GOOGLE makes it's money doesn't have long term viability. I'll set my price at Fridays close of 430.00. And I'll set my target at 5 bucks, which will occur when the next best thing comes out. I really think this is a rare "lock" for a long term play.

good luck with it :!: i will be sure to follow it for ye :wink: you got a panic stop set?

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Here's my big pick, I am shorting GOOGLE. Everyone who has an opinion about GOOG says that you can't short it, too dangerous. Well, I've been around long enough doing this to know what to do when sentiment is stacked one way or the other. Plus I just think that the overhyped way GOOGLE makes it's money doesn't have long term viability. I'll set my price at Fridays close of 430.00. And I'll set my target at 5 bucks, which will occur when the next best thing comes out. I really think this is a rare "lock" for a long term play.

good luck with it :!: i will be sure to follow it for ye :wink: you got a panic stop set?

I have a panic target for GOOG! I say GOOG trades to 250 minimum on da coming fall that takes da Naz to 2040 minimum. You will also enjoy the coming collapse of AAPL. :wink:

[metalheadrr3]

I also hold NFI and agree with you there. One small riskly stock that I am looking at is 8x8 Inc [EGHT]. I think this has some room to move in the future.

UNH is something that has one of the most linear charts I have seen; I expect this one to continue to rise steadily.

I picked up INTC when it dropped to about 22~23 ... it's rebounded nicely; once I get my 20% out of it I am dumping it though.

Same story with SYY ... bought it after it hit it's previous low of 29.99; only up about 9% now but It still has plenty of room to go.

[jacobnbr1]

Here's my big pick, I am shorting GOOGLE. Everyone who has an opinion about GOOG says that you can't short it, too dangerous. Well, I've been around long enough doing this to know what to do when sentiment is stacked one way or the other. Plus I just think that the overhyped way GOOGLE makes it's money doesn't have long term viability. I'll set my price at Fridays close of 430.00. And I'll set my target at 5 bucks, which will occur when the next best thing comes out. I really think this is a rare "lock" for a long term play.

good luck with it :!: i will be sure to follow it for ye :wink: you got a panic stop set?

I have a panic target for GOOG! I say GOOG trades to 250 minimum on da coming fall that takes da Naz to 2040 minimum. You will also enjoy the coming collapse of AAPL. :wink:

i can't wait for appl to fall :D although i dont think it falls that far yet :wink: i gots all year for this to play out... i still think the stock will stay higher due to a lack of inventory, i been looking for an ipod and can't get one anywhere.

[englishman26]

Moving away from the Nasdaq fall issues for a sec to the original Q - I would say JNJ. The stock price of this fantastic company has been suppressed by the stupid Guidant deal (or lack there of). We're coming into a period of market growth uncertainty and people will turn to the safety of the value large-caps like JNJ. But the suppression of the price makes this stock one that has a lot of potential than that in 2006. This thing should be closer to $80 than $60. It's like a coiled spring. When the investor excitement/confidence returns i expect a steady move towards $80 and that's my target for this by this time next year.

[Luc1Grunt]

Good pick (JNJ)...I agree. Own some now and plan on boosting the pos.

[jacobnbr1]

Here's my big pick, I am shorting GOOGLE. Everyone who has an opinion about GOOG says that you can't short it, too dangerous. Well, I've been around long enough doing this to know what to do when sentiment is stacked one way or the other. Plus I just think that the overhyped way GOOGLE makes it's money doesn't have long term viability. I'll set my price at Fridays close of 430.00. And I'll set my target at 5 bucks, which will occur when the next best thing comes out. I really think this is a rare "lock" for a long term play.


PLEASE TELL ME YOU DIDNT SHORT IT TODAY RIGHT?

[englishman26]

Btw - I don't think Google is a good short at all!! Just being a contrarian is not a secret to success. Google can grow ad revenue for a long long time!

[optimus25]

You might get lucky on short term drops on GOOG, but don't bet the farm on shorting this growth stock. Too much upward momentum, risk/reward ratio too high for me to take a nibble.

[TripleBuy]

I see that a few contrarians feel that GOOG is a long term short. 8O

A decision to short GOOG long term comes from one of the following mindsets:

1) Excessive Hubris - Choosing to run against the pack simply because you refuse to follow. (Just as bad as mindlessly following it)

2) Take my ball and go home - The idea that the market/GOOG is fixed, that it's destined to crash and that everyone long the market will be crushed. (Please-enough with the conspiracy theories already)

The fundamentals are clear on GOOG. The company has seen tremendous growth and will continue to see revenues and profits rise.

I think the contrarians have a visual problem seeing a stock at over $400. I think that if the stock split a few times, you would hear less chatter about GOOG going down the tubes.

[optimus25]

Good point there on the price 3buy. Such a high price normally causes many retail investors to shy away from buying.

Market cap looking mighty scary though.

[englishman26]

Another long term: DNA - Genentech. Especially on the technical pull back that it's had in the last week or so. Actually dropped below $90 this morning. This one should be around $110. This company is so packed with growth and real earning potential that it will keep coming good come earnings day for a few years to come.

Always dips on the biotechs/ pharmas so buy on the dips. As it it happens DNA is at the bottom of a dip right here, right now!

I'm backing up the truck on JNJ and DNA at the moment!

(I've got a good chunk of MO, GLG, SYY and EWJ too.)

[xboilermaker]

I am happy with EWJ and MO, but my favorite med term has to be IBN, which is up nearly 30% in the seven weeks owned, and the best performer in my portfolio during that time.

[Will]

I have really been considering IBN and EWJ too, as well as TFR, but how much more room do they have to run?

[Luc1Grunt]

Looking back at medalheads post. NFI.......jeesh, 18% dividend yield at around $30. Had to add this to the portfolio!!! Eben with a drop of $5 or better a share, still have some growth.