United Parcel Service (UPS)...THOUGHTS???

[tradinthebull]

Hey ya'all,

Cramer said last evening that he's holding his ground on UPS, stating that though DHL is doing it's thing, FedEx is going higher...UPS is going up as well...jammed on that red 'bullish' button and said it's going higher. A week or two prior, he said that animal is going to $100...anyone heard anything different through the grapevine (e.g. charts, stories I may not have seen)...it again today fell off the diving board and at the moment, is down 30%. On another note, I just, within the past hour drove around (as I live in a populated area) and pinned down two drivers...one from UPS and one from FedEx...interestingly enough, the 'UPS' drivers' truck looked as if the packages were slammed-in this morning with a front-end loader whereas this poor guy had practically no room to move, saying that he definitely is not eating lunch today and may get to dinner by 6 or 7PM...and if he decides to have dinner, he'll still be delivering packages for another 45 minutes to an hour afterward (he further said, "this is one of the busiest seasons I've had, by far)...now, conversely and just prior to talking to this guy, I found the FedEx guy at the local Bed, Bath, and Beyond Store...drove around and briefly talked to him while he unloaded two boxes and he said that things have been at a norm...maybe up slightly...said his day will end by 5 this afternoon if not earlier. I know that other things obviously factor into this such as UPS and their latest news including yadda/yadda with the pilots, but...what gives??? I have a bucket load of 80 December calls that I just don't know what to do with...do I keep this things for a sunnier days and wait this out, OR, do I (no pun intended) flush 'BROWN' down the toilet???

Mike

[aj14]

We shorted the stock into Jim's call, which is what we normally do on his reccomendations. The "pop" which he creates is hard to ignore.

We felt comfortable with the UPS short as the stock has already had a big run There is no doubt that their trucks are full, but with retailers giving away free shipping (it means to me that the retailers are squeezing UPS and FDX for lower prices) and the price of fuel having gone way up, the margins have to be lower. Can they make it up on volume? Time will tell. I'm comfortable with our position as the shares are already extended.

[deepinwonder]

UPS will make money on me, no matter how much I spend or don't spend this Christmas, because I have to have almost everything I buy shipped out of state. :wink: I think it's a great call, but watch entry levels carefully and don't buy in too high, look for a dip. This is also a longer term play on China, UPS is expanding over there, fyi.

[tradinthebull]

Yeah...I don't even wanna tell ya that I bought into a few contracts at a hair over a buck, but, then I gotta bunch @ .70...so, that's keepin' me alive and hopin at this point. ...back to AJ's comments...I did speak to that driver about them being squeezed for discounts by the major players and he said that's very true as there is some type of behind the scene's undercutting going on between the three...wasn't more specific (that's if he even knew) but honest to gosh...it was almost funny how much crap was smashed in this guys truck...ya would think that could possibly account for a decent increase in volume...he said that the majority of trucks moving out today were "jammed!" ...I'm simply writing to be inquisitive and spike some thoughts from others...I'm debating with myself as to whether to play the 'time game' with these calls and dump em' and move to a better tech stock???