Oil

[yupyup]

As oil creeps up and gas prices start to rise, up .30 in my area yesterday. How long till it starts to effect the consumer? How high does gasoline go this summer?

[yupyup]

Talking $75 oil by year end on cnbc.

[madcowdisease]

The talking heads are always tossing out whole numbers such as $3 or $4 a gallon as the point where it affects discretionary spending. Problem is, the economy is already realing and the next jobs number way very well show we're at 10% unemployment with all these dealerships set to close in June.

It doesn't take a genius to realize discretionary spending runs inverse to gasoline costs, though likely not at a 1:1 relationship. But it doesn't simply stay steady until $3/gal and then drop off a cliff. I'd argue it's having its effect right now. $3 will cause more people to drive less as it is a psychological inflection point. The relationship is probably parabolic as shown in the attachment.

For real world, granted anecdotal evidence note that gasoline demand dropped off significantly in 2008 as it breached $4/gal. But we didn't have a double-digit unemployment rate last summer either so take it for what it is worth.

[yupyup]

Nice post madcow. I appreciate it.

-yupyup

[useless]

Interesting points,

Remember the fed government gets 40 (37.5 mb) or so cent per gallon in tax. Most states tack some on after that.

I think it hurts them more than it hurts the people.

They get 40 cents whether its 3 dollars, 4 dollars, or 2 dollars a gallon.

All that chart tells me is to not be in retail anything right now, and maybe be in oil.

[Survivor]

If were lucky the Government under Obama will take over the NYMEX, CME and OPEC. Using tax payer money, they will blame the oil unions, they destroyed the oil market. :thefinger:

[Survivor]

Survivor hates greed and oil.
I have negative reputation points for telling the truth.
I still insist they back their lies up, a pipe line attack
a fire at a refinery yet you will never see any proof. Demand in China?
Thanks the US making them number one.
CNBC and the lies they spew all day.
Write to CNBC everyday and dare them to tell the truth.
Congress and the senate and the rich ELITE control everything,
Less is the New more? Less for you and more for them.
I say were past all the red tape and Bull Sh*t in this country and
we need to start kicking some serious A$$.
Fu*k OPEC, people bitch and complain and do nothing,
I'm pretty sure 6 million people can clean up the lies and manipulation.
A stock market reality, lies rumors and manipulation is all it is.
WE OWN THIS COUNTRY, not the fuc-ed up Government or OPEC.
Neither do them lying maggots in the oil pits, NYMEX, CME.
DEMAND we use our resources. Screw AL Gore and OBAMA.

Head to NEW YORK and protest the NYMEX, as other people head to Chicago and protest at the CME,
take OPEC apart. They fuc-ked us long enough.
Were past the rip offs and bull sh*t of Wall Street greed and bail outs.
Demand the so called crooked "FEDERAL RESERVE BANK" back that bull sh*t MONOPOLY money in gold or silver.
The billionaire control freaks need the living sh*t kicked out of them.
Have CONGRESS AND THE SENATE reverse the hold on us by that fuc-ked up greedy war mongering bank.
I'm sick and tired of the taxpayer getting stripped of our money and nothing in return...SHEEP.
Shove that rip off Federal income tax up your A$$.
Keep letting these A$$ hole sh*t all over the Constitution.
I didn't sell my soul and country to them dead greedy lying billionaire bastards in 1913.
Are you going to sit around and watch the US crumble and become a third world country?
This is a tax deduction. Who gives a fu-k.

We now return you to the DO nothing wimp generation.

[madcowdisease]

Nice post madcow. I appreciate it.

-yupyup

You're very welcome, Yup. I can only hope to some day contribute more than I have consumed over the years. Right now I fear I'm running a deficit.

Survivor hates greed and oil.
I have negative reputation points for telling the truth.
I still insist they back their lies up, a pipe line attack
a fire at a refinery yet you will never see any proof. Demand in China?
Thanks the US making them number one.
CNBC and the lies they spew all day.
Write to CNBC everyday and dare them to tell the truth.
Congress and the senate and the rich ELITE control everything,
Less is the New more? Less for you and more for them.
I say were past all the red tape and Bull Sh*t in this country and
we need to start kicking some serious A$$.
Fu*k OPEC, people bitch and complain and do nothing,
I'm pretty sure 6 million people can clean up the lies and manipulation.
A stock market reality, lies rumors and manipulation is all it is.
WE OWN THIS COUNTRY, not the fuc-ed up Government or OPEC.
Neither do them lying maggots in the oil pits, NYMEX, CME.
DEMAND we use our resources. Screw AL Gore and OBAMA.

Head to NEW YORK and protest the NYMEX, as other people head to Chicago and protest at the CME,
take OPEC apart. They fuc-ked us long enough.
Were past the rip offs and bull sh*t of Wall Street greed and bail outs.
Demand the so called crooked "FEDERAL RESERVE BANK" back that bull sh*t MONOPOLY money in gold or silver.
The billionaire control freaks need the living sh*t kicked out of them.
Have CONGRESS AND THE SENATE reverse the hold on us by that fuc-ked up greedy war mongering bank.
I'm sick and tired of the taxpayer getting stripped of our money and nothing in return...SHEEP.
Shove that rip off Federal income tax up your A$$.
Keep letting these A$$ hole sh*t all over the Constitution.
I didn't sell my soul and country to them dead greedy lying billionaire bastards in 1913.
Are you going to sit around and watch the US crumble and become a third world country?
This is a tax deduction. Who gives a fu-k.

We now return you to the DO nothing wimp generation.

I love a good fire-breathing, vitriolic diatribe every now and again. I say turn the rep points back on and I'll throw you a few. I'm in accord with much of what was said above, however, I try to mollify the delivery a touch when I get on my soapbox.

Survivor, I hope you are writing your Congressman and Senators. Many of them do not understand the mechanisms behind the futures exchanges and the extreme leverage that contributes and affords such drastic volatility.

I looked over at CNBC today and saw crude was up over 38% for the month of May. They said that was the largest move in over a decade. Similarly, the commodity index was up the most for one month since 1974. We're in a goddamn recession for crying out loud. There is no justification for such a move other than extreme leverage and the return of risk taking.

I've written my Congressman in the past, in fact, we talk a couple times a year on the phone always in response to one of my letters. In one of those conversations I mentioned the need to limit leverage (aka increase the deposit) on the commodities exchanges and perhaps restrict the participants to those only willing or capable of taking delivery -- which would wipe out the speculators. It's in our national interest to do so. How in the world can a company plan for the future, and how can our government allocate resources appropriately with such wild swings in the basic inputs that we require? It must wreak havoc on business. I know I'm tired of wondering how high my heat bill is going to be and that is miniscule compared to the inputs of a P&G or 3M.

We need stability. Write your Representative and explain the market mechanisms behind this. Keep in mind many of them don't understand how this stuff works. They were elected from the general population and the general populaton is just that, general. If you have a area of expertise or specialization I would argue it is your civic duty to elucidate your government officials and encourage them to exact change. As you mentioned, this is our country and it's time we stopped pandering to special interests and took it back for ourselves and future generations.

Where I stand is well documented in the older thread below:

http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?t=24410&highlight=crude+direction

[Survivor]

MCD, you can articulate better than I. Unfortunately I threw away my vocabulary to give up on the so called intellectual argument. Being an old timer I throw the flames of trying to motivate people to fight back at all the red tape and bureaucracy, this is totally to blame for the condition our country is in. I say it's past getting up and out of your chair and start stomping ass maybe that will be the spark some kind of a revolution or protest. Since the late 60's early 70's nobody has the guts like that generation to stand up and fight rather it was peaceful or violent the Government come in and beat up or killed your friends. Fighting for what they believed in they had their voices heard. The Tea party theory is for little girls.

Congress the Senate and all those other lying piles of waisted life don"t give any sh*t about the people. They are nothing but bought or owned by the Federal Reserve Bank.
All we are is a tax ID number and when the country is in a recession/depression we get screwed, glued, and tattooed by the falling dollar and the infamous inflation tax, screw that. It comes a time when there is need for a good old fashioned ass whipping.

We should no longer live under the Wall Street greed and Manipulation, the lies in the media the Federal Reserve Bank, now we have Hitler in the White House taking over everything. Were all going to be driving Volkswagen Beetles or he may send us to the Gas chamber next. Ron Paul is the only man in the Government who is for the Constitution, against the FED bank and for our rights but he can't be bought by the billionaires that own the evil and corrupt Fed Bank. This New world order bull Sh*t is another Mother Fuc-ker we have to deal with. Any of our so called bought or artificially elected leaders should have a copy of the Constitution rammed down their traitor ass throat. My bones chilled before the election when that ass hole Obama did his speech about IT"S TIME FOR A NEW WORLD ORDER!!! First thought in my mind was Fu*k you.

If our country is proud and we are number one no one sticks together anymore.
All our jobs are gone to China, this country taxes the living fuc outta of us.
It has turned into nothing but greed and sell outs all for money. If no one stands up and fights we will continually lose everything we have worked for. All this recession does is provide another transfer of wealth to someone. There is too many big money manipulators and control freaks killing our country. I'm tired of the Bashing of the automakers, the banks are crooks along with politicians. You have Americans turning on Americans for working on a assembly line fueled by Wall Street and their Greedy profit margins. You get the uneducated people to do your dirty work and now it's the UAW's fault. Fuc-kin oil, boil in that black slop you greedy fucs. 147 a barrel killed the economy and the whole recession was brought on by that bull sh*t. BUSH could have stopped that. He didn't give a fu*k. Why in the hell if the US is in the war business the automakers have no weapons contracts? It is just a reset in income and further destruction of our middle class.

Everybody is going to earn 10 to 15 dollars an hour and won't be able to buy anything. Shove this global economy up your A$$ and the emerging markets bull Sh*t, that is helping to destroy our country. Again manufacturing is the back bone of a Nation. We are vulnerable to attacks out of greed and stupidity we can't build sh*t in this country. Next the military will buy guns from China.

Government is way to big, the war machine never stops, killing people all over this world is wrong. I am not defending attackers. For the war machine is nothing but profits for some rich sissy control freak murderers. They themselves hide like cum dumpsters and will not pick up a weapon and kill but they send other people to die.

Deficits? how much ass whipping do we have to take as the Government just keeps buying this country in the biggest deficits you ever saw? screw that, I want to bury them in unpaid debt. What gives them the right?

Sometimes I think writing in this forum is a chance that someone some where will read these things and agree that we really need to get our country back and fight tooth and nail to secure our future. The war and terror is really in our own back yard.

I miss America. What happened?

[madcowdisease]

Survivor, whether you choose to articulate what your feeling with pen and paper is not really the question. However, you may want to remember the adage, the pen is mightier than the sword. After all, look at Obama. People fell in love with him for his oratory and rhetoric. He didn't go bashing heads. The obsequious crowds fawned over him at his every word and you could argue the media isn't fulfilling their duty to the people by not being critical of his plans and actions -- though Huffington isn't a big fan. What is salient about your posts is that you feel something is awry. I'm in the same boat. This is why I can't convince myself to jump on board this pseudo rally.

The government simply altered the mark-to-market accounting rules for the banks and when earnings came around they handidly beat the lowered numbers by losing less than expected. This caught Wall St in a massive short squeeze and was the catalyst for the rally lasting the past 3 months. As the averages moved higher and technical indicators turned up we've witnessed money on the sidelines poor in out of regret for selling months ago and a fear of perhaps missing the run up. And now the bs in the commodities markets is mostly due to an emboldening in speculators and the adoption of risk taking as the markets stayed above support lines and the mentality that the easy money was made in March in equities grew. Now, only the 20:1 leverage in futures can satisfy the appetites of the speculators now that FAS and FAZ aren't moving 10% each day. And here I question why I'm not 100% invested in this rally. Perhaps cause it's based on bs.

Survivor, while I still haven't given up hope on the pen you've openly stated that you have. I can tell you there are other people out there with similar sentiments as yours right now. The following web site has a few email notifications you can sign up for. They will notify you when there is something in your area. I think starting at the grass roots might be more effective than intermittent posts on a web forum. If it's gotten to the point where you felt compelled to disable your rep points this may not be the best place to concentrate your efforts to exact change.

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/

[Jelly]

I miss America. What happened?

I miss it too. I believe a OneWorld nation and economy will emerge. There is nothing that can be done except kick the chessboard over. Laws and contracts = dogshit. The losing countries will be lost to civil and international wars. World populations will shrink.

Of course, I'm into porn.......armageddon porn that is (the other kind too). Still, it makes sense to me to witness the power grabs for commodities and money going on right now. Makes me moist to see Wall Street eating their own, until I picture the trickle down and see mom and pop closing their stores. It makes sense that bubbles were created and burst in ever increasing intensities. It makes sense that WWIII is coming, if only to lend credibility to the violence.

[goldentraders]

I think the best way to drift from being so much affected by the oil price hike is... "Change of Lifestyle", perhaps we can walk if the place we want to go is just nearby... Or most people in Asia have bikes, they use them for means of transportation in most countries there... Maybe we can apply it here... Just a thought:rolleyes2:

[Survivor]

Survivor, whether you choose to articulate what your feeling with pen and paper is not really the question. However, you may want to remember the adage, the pen is mightier than the sword. After all, look at Obama. People fell in love with him for his oratory and rhetoric. He didn't go bashing heads. The obsequious crowds fawned over him at his every word and you could argue the media isn't fulfilling their duty to the people by not being critical of his plans and actions -- though Huffington isn't a big fan. What is salient about your posts is that you feel something is awry. I'm in the same boat. This is why I can't convince myself to jump on board this pseudo rally.

The government simply altered the mark-to-market accounting rules for the banks and when earnings came around they handidly beat the lowered numbers by losing less than expected. This caught Wall St in a massive short squeeze and was the catalyst for the rally lasting the past 3 months. As the averages moved higher and technical indicators turned up we've witnessed money on the sidelines poor in out of regret for selling months ago and a fear of perhaps missing the run up. And now the bs in the commodities markets is mostly due to an emboldening in speculators and the adoption of risk taking as the markets stayed above support lines and the mentality that the easy money was made in March in equities grew. Now, only the 20:1 leverage in futures can satisfy the appetites of the speculators now that FAS and FAZ aren't moving 10% each day. And here I question why I'm not 100% invested in this rally. Perhaps cause it's based on bs.

Survivor, while I still haven't given up hope on the pen you've openly stated that you have. I can tell you there are other people out there with similar sentiments as yours right now. The following web site has a few email notifications you can sign up for. They will notify you when there is something in your area. I think starting at the grass roots might be more effective than intermittent posts on a web forum. If it's gotten to the point where you felt compelled to disable your rep points this may not be the best place to concentrate your efforts to exact change.

http://www.campaignforliberty.com/

Thanks MCD.

[Survivor]

I miss it too. I believe a OneWorld nation and economy will emerge. There is nothing that can be done except kick the chessboard over. Laws and contracts = dogshit. The losing countries will be lost to civil and international wars. World populations will shrink.

Of course, I'm into porn.......armageddon porn that is (the other kind too). Still, it makes sense to me to witness the power grabs for commodities and money going on right now. Makes me moist to see Wall Street eating their own, until I picture the trickle down and see mom and pop closing their stores. It makes sense that bubbles were created and burst in ever increasing intensities. It makes sense that WWIII is coming, if only to lend credibility to the violence.

Food, fuel guns and ammunition. Right on Jelly.:top: