Would this be a valid Elliot Wave count?

[okrobie]

Being a novice at counting waves I noticed this pattern forming but I don't think it fits the definition of a triangle. Can anyone count this for me? I don't want to be guilty of curve fitting even though I'm bearish.
Thanks, Jim

http://www.thewebplace.com/images/indu2.JPG

[john_for_u80]

It is possible if we see price going above 3rd wave. Also 3rd wave which you are showing can be 5th wave and we saw A down with B up going right now and C down breaking below 875 then we move towards 1000 area.

Nasdaq give much better picture than DOW and S&P.

If there is real P3 in future then no one can help this market. US will be done!!!

[john_for_u80]

CHECK your PM in a min.

[okrobie]

Hi John, thanks for the PM.

I see what you mean about the NASDAQ. It looks like an expanding triangle and wave 5 (or E) is in process. It could be a really big blowoff if this is a good forecast. FWIW I'm sure this is a corrective wave. Not an impulse in sight. Here's the chart.

http://www.thewebplace.com/images/compq.JPG

[Horace Kent]

Personally, I think elliot is too subjective to be useful. A lot of people disagree. Checkout evilspuculator.com (http://evilspeculator.com/) And you can see, he really, really gets into it. I love his blog, and have been following it before the rally started...........And I don't have a damn clue what the count is. But, evil makes a good go at it.

[john_for_u80]

A lot of people disagree.

May be they are right but may be they dont know which count is going on. Even excellent Ellioticians goes wrong at times when price screws the count. Their need to be recount on the chart.

I think Support,Resistance,Fibonacci along with waves controls your risk very much. I know Ellioticians who predicted that we are almost at the bottom of P1 when S&P was at 675 and will start P2 to 1000.

You cannot trade wholly based on waves. They say we are in the big bear market and right now we are in a correction which is P2 going near 1000, after that we start P3 which is down where S&P goes near 500.

3rd waves(minor, major) up or down are the most Violent waves with aggressive moves. If P3 really exists, America is done!

Bottom Line: She is always right no matter what people, waves, charts says.
I mean market!