This market is ridiculous...

[pietistic]

How much farther can it go? It seems to be over-extended.

Check out the following stocks and tell me they aren't due for a down turn:

MSFT, EYE, DADE, BOL, SFA

I'm have PUT options in every single one of them. What a bad day and now horrible weekend.

[Beaker]

wonder how the holiday shopping numbers a week from Monday (Nov 28th) will affect this pre-holiday rally

[Kevin Wong]

MSFT is taking a dip in the after-hours. I'm not sure if this is the beginning of a fall...but I thought Xbox 360 would help this company out. Am I missing something?

[pietistic]

Well, first of all, the intentionally limited production of XBOX 360's to increase demand. Second of all, they are losing money on each unit they sell. They only make money from the kick backs they get from the companies producing games for the system.

[deepinwonder]

Well, aside from a few small investments my husband made, we are both in cash, right now, wondering if there's going to be a dip. They say that's a bullish sign. 8)

Cramer said today on his radio show re-cap (thestreet.com) that shorts in the hedge funds are going to be covering big time before the end of the year, so maybe that's what creates the so-called rally. At any rate, I don't want to pile onto the top of anything, because I'm not that bullish, I've been watching for dips to enter. Big ones. I do have some stocks picked out that I really like, though, so I am not negative, just unsure about the direction of the market right now.

The consumer is going to be looking for sales, imo, or free shipping on the internet.

[Beaker]

I show that MS is down 5 cents in after hours trading, how is that "taking a dip"? still above $28

it's at a 52 week high in after hours trading

[dmonkey]

Well, first of all, the intentionally limited production of XBOX 360's to increase demand. Second of all, they are losing money on each unit they sell. They only make money from the kick backs they get from the companies producing games for the system.

They get more than just kick backs from the game producers... they have been buying these guys up for years. They now own a large number of developers, many that have been integrated in as part of "Microsoft Studios" (their game brand). I think they know exactly what they are doing - its the same tactic they used to dominate so many software markets. They lose money initially in order to gain market share. They have such deep pockets they can keep this up until all the major competitors are bankrupt or simply give up. Then they own the market, and watch the money come it. Sega is dead, Nintindo is falling, and Sony is already starting to lose its strangle hold on the console market. Plus, keep an eye out for new ways to integrate your XBOX 360 with your Windows(tm) PC and Windows(tm) Media Center...

[metalheadrr3]

The XBox 360 is designed to be a whole 'home entertainment' box. You can hook it up to surround sound and high definition TV (and actually get full support of both). You can hook you computer into it and have you computer display on the TV or the Xbox on the computer. You can use it to watch any format of video. These things are very impressive. I'm curious to see what accessories will become available. That's another way to make some good money.

[TBONE]

Seems like MSFT has been hanging around 28.00--anyone think it'll push up a substantial bit due to the 360 this year? I don't know enough about this stock stuff yet, but I'm learning. Thanks.

[pietistic]

I'm sure it'll eventually break more 52 week highs, but it's long over-due for a pull back. A stock can't go up 9/10 days and continue rising...

[aj14]

I'm sure it'll eventually break more 52 week highs, but it's long over-due for a pull back. A stock can't go up 9/10 days and continue rising...

stocks can move in one direction longer than you (or I ) can afford to throw money at them to prove that the move is wrong!

This market is WAY overextended, but the talking heads (Cramer included) will suck in the last dollar before the market administers its crushing punishment. And it will be viscious...

[pmb1010]

as long as the correction happens after Jan 1, that's fine with me.
Hope there's enough wind in the sails to carry this mkt till then...

[deepinwonder]

I am guessing there will be a pullback... I don't think things are doom and gloom, but I don't see any call for highs in the market, right now, either. And look what else is trading strangely, energy going up when the rest of the stocks are going up (the reverse of how it was trading the rest of the year.) Gold up when the dollar is up (the reverse of what it usually does.) I think something is wrong with this picture, with or without strong earnings from individual companies.

And you guys talking about MSFT are ignoring the other big story and that is software piracy throughout the world. I would take my profits on this stock with the hype about XBOX and skeedaddle, skeedaddy. This problem isn't going to be solved anytime soon and it seriously limits the upside potential.

[pietistic]

Let's not forget about how popular open source software packages are becoming also.

OpenOffice
Linux
FireFox

Unless MSFT plans on turning into a console company, they certainly have their work cut out for them. They are even in competition for GOOG for ideas; Gates claims GOOG is their biggest competitor right now (and GOOG isn't even developing software to compete with MSFT, unless you count gmail or GOOG's messenger program).

[TripleBuy]

I think the reports of MSFT demise are premature. MSFT has not been a company on the cutting edge in 2 decades. What they specialize in is simple, dominate certain market sectors and drive out competitors. They still own the most important market in software, the home OS market. As long computers are shipped out with windows as the prime OS, (and that most consumers are only comfortable using windows OS) MSFT will be just fine.

As for piracy, I think that it is an overblown issue. Sure, there is plenty of pirated software circulating throughout the world. However, as long as the majority of businesses run on legit MS software that is paid for, I don't forsee any dip in MSFT's stock price.

[pietistic]

Ultimately, I don't care what MSFT does in the future or how high their stock goes by the end of the year. All I care is that it makes a correction based on it's current run. ;)

[TripleBuy]

p-

I wouldn't count on a correction anytime soon. With plenty of stories that will come out this week about xbox 360, I anticipate the stock to move higher for at least this week and probably throughout the holiday season. I'm aware of the runup to 28 from 24, but the positive press, along with the traditional 4th quarter tech rally should allow MSFT to move higher.

[pietistic]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I'm not talking about a week long correction. I'm talking about 2 down days of a few percent or more with the stock dropping to around $27 or so.

[pietistic]

After looking over the put/call ratio numbers tonight, I'm fairly confident we'll have a few down days in the market coming up soon. When everyone starts getting optimistic, something is bound to break.

[optimus25]

If you're talking about profit taking. I see that happening. Its time to take some money off the table.

[deepinwonder]

Hi Optimus, I was wondering what happened to you, glad to see you back! I did take some money off the table, then sunk a little into an oil speculation this morning (RIG) since the prices are going back up. A day late and a dollar short, as usual, but I put my "moronic" stop limit in and we'll see how she rolls. Too bad I was too busy to think of it yesterday, oh well, do what you can. :o

[deepinwonder]

PS I felt a little more comfortable, today, since the market went down when oil was going up. Looks more normal, now waiting for good entry points on my favorites, in which case, I will dump oil and pick up one or two of them. Boo yah.

[aj14]

I am guessing there will be a pullback... I don't think things are doom and gloom, but I don't see any call for highs in the market, right now, either. And look what else is trading strangely, energy going up when the rest of the stocks are going up (the reverse of how it was trading the rest of the year.) Gold up when the dollar is up (the reverse of what it usually does.) I think something is wrong with this picture, with or without strong earnings from individual companies.


The market is loaded with young portfolio managers, Cramers and his followers, and young traders who have no idea what a bear market looks or feels like. The pain is endless, and it usually comes at a time just like this when there isn't a cloud in the sky, according to the bulls, and the market is rising in defiance of some truly horrific economic and company data. Give it time, protect your powder, and don't get caught long when it turns. Contrary to the popular notion, you can't (won't) get out when it turns, and will end up selling the bottom to guys like me...who are selling everything to the buyers up here. I'll cover when they puke...

[jacobnbr1]

well aj... lets have the forcast of when, so i can make you eat crow... i agree a big turn in da markets will come someday but when? no one knows, the onlything you can do is try to scare people that a mass sell off is under way. i know where all the support and resistance areas are and how da market will or may react.. so tell me somthing i dont know. we going to have a black friday? is this a blow off top? dont come on here trying to scare somone without having the power to predict..... by the way. i am already 90% short da markets and have puts on alot of overpriced stocks, i am currently waiting for this sell off that i think happens the 1st two weeks of december.

[deepinwonder]

and the market is rising in defiance of some truly horrific economic and company data.

Really? I think the opposite. The economic data was often outstanding, during the last quarterly reports... at least, with my favorite companies and maybe that's why I like them. Boo yah. :lol:

I am in oil services and feel really comfortable with that, right now. I'm only interested in companies who have high growth potential, no matter what their sectors. Not a bargain shopper.

[optimus25]

Hi Optimus, I was wondering what happened to you, glad to see you back! I did take some money off the table, then sunk a little into an oil speculation this morning (RIG) since the prices are going back up. A day late and a dollar short, as usual, but I put my "moronic" stop limit in and we'll see how she rolls. Too bad I was too busy to think of it yesterday, oh well, do what you can. :o

Hey deep. Decided to take a break. I had a big exam for my advisor license a couple of weeks ago and I just wanted to take it easy. Now that I'm back, I hope that I have a little more time to digest the market news. This board seems so different than a couple of months ago. There are so many new posters...great to see the community growing. Better late than never on your buy deep. :wink:

[optimus25]

I'm both a bargain shopper and a growth shopper of stocks. It doesn't matter to me what the market does but I am putting together a new trading metric using ROE to see how it fares.

I love buying when everyone else is selling. I agree that the market has had some strong moves lately but I'd be more cautious because I think there will be short term profit taking. From there not sure where it'll go. I'm still holding mostly large caps dividend payers and trading tech/biotech companies.

[optimus25]

I'm gonna miss trading for a while DIW. Since I got my advisory license and will now be registering as an investment advisor representative and I will need to transfer or close all my outside brokerage accounts. They are going to be regulating me up the yin yang. They will also be watching what I trade...I don't feel too comfortable about this. Plus the commission rates can't compare to Scottrade.

[optimus25]

The market is loaded with young portfolio managers, Cramers and his followers, and young traders who have no idea what a bear market looks or feels like. The pain is endless, and it usually comes at a time just like this when there isn't a cloud in the sky, according to the bulls, and the market is rising in defiance of some truly horrific economic and company data. Give it time, protect your powder, and don't get caught long when it turns. Contrary to the popular notion, you can't (won't) get out when it turns, and will end up selling the bottom to guys like me...who are selling everything to the buyers up here. I'll cover when they puke...

aj14, most people don't know what a bear market looks like. Even some professionals are wrong. The best thing you can do is position yourself in a way that you'll benefit from any market. Hedging your long positions through puts and your short positions through calls will probably be beneficial if you think the market is gonna tank any time soon.

jacobnbr has the right idea.

[deepinwonder]

Since I got my advisory license and will now be registering as an investment advisor representative and I will need to transfer or close all my outside brokerage accounts.

Well, congratulations, I think! lol And I hope they are going to pay you handily to make up for it, because for a guy like you, it is not going to be easy to pass up buys when you see levels you know are good entry points on hot stocks. Lost profits, too, you tell 'em, Optimus. :wink:

RIG just broke $64... ride, Sally, ride! (Edit: must be pulling out people's stops, dropped back under. Oh well, the day's not over, keep hope alive.)

[deepinwonder]

Oil's down and market's up, now, so I made it a day trade and sold at $64.35. Good deal and tomorrow is another day! Also know that pesky oil report comes out Wed, Thanksgiving's on Thurs, and anything could happen. Better safe and all that jazz... (it is still cranking, oh well. I made some, anyway.)

[optimus25]

Since I got my advisory license and will now be registering as an investment advisor representative and I will need to transfer or close all my outside brokerage accounts.

Well, congratulations, I think! lol And I hope they are going to pay you handily to make up for it, because for a guy like you, it is not going to be easy to pass up buys when you see levels you know are good entry points on hot stocks. Lost profits, too, you tell 'em, Optimus. :wink:

RIG just broke $64... ride, Sally, ride! (Edit: must be pulling out people's stops, dropped back under. Oh well, the day's not over, keep hope alive.)

Thanks Deep. I've made a committment to this career and I guess I have to pay my dues. I'm really excited to be moving forward...next step is for my Certified Financial Planner designation. From there, its all about financial planning for my clients. I love this career! I learned through the years that there are a lot of important things that I have to do...helping people with their portfolio is one that I truly enjoy. If I ever won the lottery I'd still be doing what I do, except I'd be doing it for free!

I guess I feel a little sad that I have to close accounts which I have been investing in for over 6 years. :cry: I'm just a sentimental guy I guess. I don't even get a discount for being my own broker...sheesh!

As soon as I get the green light and figure out all the do's and don'ts, I'll be back trading. :wink:

[deepinwonder]

I love this career! I learned through the years that there are a lot of important things that I have to do...helping people with their portfolio is one that I truly enjoy. If I ever won the lottery I'd still be doing what I do, except I'd be doing it for free!

I know you are going to be great at it, Optimus, congratulations! :D

[optimus25]

I love this career! I learned through the years that there are a lot of important things that I have to do...helping people with their portfolio is one that I truly enjoy. If I ever won the lottery I'd still be doing what I do, except I'd be doing it for free!

I know you are going to be great at it, Optimus, congratulations! :D

Thanks again Deep. Have a wonderful thanksgiving.