One-Year Stock Picking Challenge

[Albert0373]

One-Year Stock Picking Challenge

Got this idea from the other thread started about the top five value plays you're looking at for the next year.

Pick your five stocks, long or short, that you predict will move the most in the next 12 months.

Giving reasons for your picks will make this thread much more interesting and be quite helpful to others by providing insight.

Contest will start two weeks from tomorrow with no late entries, so make sure you get your picks in!

Rules:

- Choose five stocks that trade in the US market. To be eligible the stock must not have traded under $1.00 and have at least a 100,000 average share volume (3m) per Yahoo.

- You have until Monday, May 18th, 2009 9:29 a.m. EST to submit your picks.

- Your price paid for each stock will be the average of the highest and lowest closing prices during this two week picking period.

- You may close out a position any time during this contest, but may not take any new ones.

- You can have some of the same stocks as somebody else, but not all five.

- No triple-leveraged ETFs

- No prizes at the moment, just glory, but that may change. :beerglass:

- Winner will be determined by the net gain of the five stocks in their chosen portfolio.

I will be tracking this and will provide updates at the end of each week.

[shulink]

1. MSFT
2. YGE
3. GOOG
4. APPL
5. C

I believe technology companies will recover after the recession. MSFT, GOOG and APPL are long term investment. MSFT will release windows 7 soon and it is a really good product. GOOG has plan to compete with search engines outside of US where google isn't the #1 such as BAIDU in China, Yandex in Russia. China has the most internet users in the world, so it creates good potential for GOOG. Apple is doing well with their latest products, IPOD, IPHONE, and MAC computers. Also, I think solar companies will recover. With the support from Chinese government, YGE will soar. I include Citigroup for speculating.

[Mastajab]

MASTAJAB's picks
1. CPE (long)
2. WTI (long)
3. BEXP (long)
4. PBR (long)
5. PLLL (long)

All oil and nat.gas companies. I'm not really banking on really strong demand. I'm thinking these are good inflation plays, since many people are predicting inflation and even hyperinflation, these should all go up as the dollar goes down. It's a nice mixture of mainly small cap stocks with a large cap thrown in there. Hopefully it works. We'll see. :dong::beerglass::turtle:

[Albert0373]

Great job guys!

I'm still gathering info for my picks

[shulink]

I figured I would copy my reason from the other thread. Sorry for the duplicate.
"I believe technology companies will recover after the recession. MSFT, GOOG and APPL are long term investment. MSFT will release windows 7 soon and it is a really good product. GOOG has plan to compete with search engines outside of US where google isn't the #1 such as BAIDU in China, Yandex in Russia. China has the most internet users in the world, so it creates good potential for GOOG. Apple is doing well with their latest products, IPOD, IPHONE, and MAC computers. Also, I think solar companies will recover. With the support from Chinese government, YGE will soar. I include Citigroup for speculating."

[JacksonAK92]

My picks:

TBSI
HTE
MUR
ATVI
AGU

all long

[jlcnuke]

1. F
2. AMD
3. C
4. BAC
5. YHOO

All long positions. All are currently trading at levels I believe are extremely low compared to where they should be. I anticipate at least a 50% rise from each of these as the economy recovers.

[Albert0373]

YGE Green energy is pretty big in China right now and could really take off.
PTR Auto industry still growing in China, playing that with this oil monster.
FXI China is prime to recover pretty well, I own some FXI right now
URE Real estate could rebound pretty well with the possible bottom already set.
DXO Not where I'd exactly like to enter with DXO but oil prices may rise again.

I'm pretty big on China right now so I took 3 picks from there, and then threw in a real estate and oil play to play the markets over here.

[fast]

Atvi
ebs
mrvl
yge
yzc

[timsummit]

1. Tsl
2. C
3. Yge
4. Lng
5. Feed

[Albert0373]

Seems like YGE's pretty popular! :)

Great picks everyone, keep it up!

Newcomers, don't be shy to join! Plenty of room for everyone.

[BentleyVTech]

- Choose five stocks that trade in the US market. To be eligible the stock must not have traded under $1.00 and have at least a 100,000 average share volume (3m) per Yahoo.

i dont wanna bring bad news to the party...citi's 52 week range is .97-26.09 :(

if we allow some stocks under a dollar...it might change my picks, so I'm gonna wait til this is resolved :)

(but I do own citi shares myself, so I agree on the pick!)

[Albert0373]

C should be fine, it hasn't traded under $1.00 during this 2 week picking period.

[Wonder]

All Long,
EBS
PIKE
BECN
NTES
BIDU

[aiki14]

C
FPP
ETFC
FEED
GMO

And if any one those is ineligible for some reason.
ABAX
If 2 are ineligible
NGA
If 3 are ineligible
I am too stupid to be in the contest

[useless]

Cool idea, should be fun

MRK
LINE
SBLK
FRO
MDT

[madcowdisease]

One-Year Stock Picking Challenge


- No triple-leveraged ETFs



What about 2X leveraged ETFs?

[Albert0373]

What about 2X leveraged ETFs?

Regular and 2x leveraged ETFs are fine :top:

[stabbs]

sounds fun!

BAC
MAT
FSLR
BUCY
VZ

[Stay Liquid]

I'm a newb but here goes nothing, all long.

PAL
PRGN
DXO
ANDS
LVS

[Albert0373]

Friendly reminder, you have till Monday's market open to submit your 5 picks.

Good luck!

[WiqqyNYU]

F
amd
cbi
fcx
bac

[imasong]

1. BAC
2. CYOU
3. DRYS
4. YGE
5. NYX

Let's Rock!

[BULLSEYE]

1) feed
2) apwr
3) etfc
4) c
5) exm

[john_for_u80]

Short ALL :wink:

1) SSO

2) SHLD

3) ODP

4) UYG

5) C

[golfdock]

c
feed
gm
yge
lvs

Just some long shots

[madcowdisease]

I might only take a position in one of these with real money. But since we're playing pretend here goes:

1.) BWEN

2.) NTES

3.) FTEK

4.) EGO

5.) TBT

if any of the above do not qualify please use the following as surrogates:

6.) NGAS

7.) PAL

8.) GMO

9.) ZOLT

[showmethemoney]

My first contest, woot!

XTO
PCU
TRA
FLS
FSLR


Oh and Aiki14, I am now 1 of your many twitter followers.

[Florida]

BGCP
CT
OCNF
ZLC
SRZ

use the following if any of the above do not qualify:

WNC
FLOW
CPE

[rkahn]

Aapl
goog
uso
bac
amzn

[Horace Kent]

Fsin
fitb
ng
pl
ddrx

[intowin]

wnc
abcw
flow
zqk
hafc

and standby's, if any of the above don't qualify

pnx
fbc
ftbk

in that order

[Albert0373]

Deadline has passed, no more entries as of this post please!

Good luck!

[Florida]

so who's winning???

[useless]

haha nice. today was probably pretty favorable to most everyone..

[Albert0373]

I'll be providing updates every weekend from now on, I'll have the list out tonight!

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 5/22/2009

Horace Kent 14.15%
timsummit 9.05%
useless 8.66%
Stay Liquid 6.06%
madcowdisease 5.32%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Yearly%20Challenge/week1.png

[fast]

I feel lucky.

[madcowdisease]

Nice looking spreadsheet Albert.

Apropos of my picks, I just need Obama & Pelosi to hit the utilities industry hard with CO2 limitations and FTEK should pop as a result.

[Albert0373]

timsummit takes the lead with his FEED pick! I'll post a new update after close.

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 5/26/2009

timsummit 19.93%
Horace Kent 17.64%
golfdock 14.50%
useless 11.28%
albert0373 10.27%

Previous standings from week ending 5/22/2009:
Horace Kent 14.15%
timsummit 9.05%
useless 8.66%
Stay Liquid 6.06%
madcowdisease 5.32%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

(Whoops, I accidentally cut off the Total % Gain column, I'll fix it next time!)
http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Yearly%20Challenge/week2a.png

[Florida]

Interesting results so far, but 7 and a half months is a long time.

I would dare say that the winning portfolio will be well in excess of 100%, (maybe even 200% or 300%) by years end, and some of the current momo stocks that are driving the winners right now will fade away quickly.

[Albert0373]

That was my thinking too; I was thinking somebody could have 'taken' advantage of the method used for calculating the price paid by choosing a stock that dipped horrendously and/or either spiked soon after. Not implying anybody did, but those stocks would then have less potential to continue to move through the year.

By the way, the contest length was to be 12 months in length but would you prefer it to be ended December so a new fresh contest can be started at the beginning of the new year?

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 5/29/2009

timsummit 27.63%
Horace Kent 27.57%
albert0373 19.93%
BULLSEYE 15.07%
shulink 13.92%

Previous standings from last update:
timsummit 19.93%
Horace Kent 17.64%
golfdock 14.50%
useless 11.28%
albert0373 10.27%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.
Note #2: chinaman711 had a exempted late entry earlier this week but I forgot to include in the results below.

(Included the Total % Gain column this time, which was accidentally omitted last update)
http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Yearly%20Challenge/week2b.png

[WiqqyNYU]

You have misunderstood me, I picked FCX not FXC

[Albert0373]

Sorry about that, nice catch! I'll get that fixed come next update

[madcowdisease]

You have misunderstood me, I picked FCX not FXC

Both are going to react well to a falling dollar though. I've actually had FXC and FXA on my radar the past 6 weeks.

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 6/5/2009

timsummit 40.51%
Horace Kent 31.65%
aiki14 29.91%
albert0373 29.70%
fast 27.46%

Previous standings from last update:
timsummit 27.63%
Horace Kent 27.57%
albert0373 19.93%
BULLSEYE 15.07%
shulink 13.92%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Yearly%20Challenge/week3.png

[Albert0373]

Just noticed a mistake, I didn't get to update the new symbol for GM, I'll do that next time golfdock!

Fantastic gains all around, great job everybody!

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 6/12/2009

timsummit 42.48%
golfdock 32.46%
fast 31.72%
albert0373 31.60%
chinaman711 30.99%

Previous standings from last update:
timsummit 40.51%
Horace Kent 31.65%
aiki14 29.91%
albert0373 29.70%
fast 27.46%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Yearly%20Challenge/WEEK3A.png

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 6/12/2009

aiki14 33.53%
timsummit 32.19%
Horace Kent 31.53%
fast 28.30%
albert0373 27.56%

Previous standings from last update:
timsummit 42.48%
golfdock 32.46%
fast 31.72%
albert0373 31.60%
chinaman711 30.99%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Yearly%20Challenge/Untitled-2.png

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 6/19/2009

Horace Kent 25.78%
fast 24.70%
albert0373 19.36%
timsummit 18.48%
chinaman711 16.54%

Previous standings from last update:
aiki14 33.53%
timsummit 32.19%
Horace Kent 31.53%
fast 28.30%
albert0373 27.56%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/week5.png

[Horace Kent]

Albert. I haven't been checking in because there's so much time left. But, I noticed that you must have transcribed my picks erroneously.

I wanted to be long PL - not PLLL.

Thanks!

[Albert0373]

Eep, I must have held the "l" key down too long, I'll get that fixed next update, good spotting!

Past few days hasn't been boding well for everybody, leaders dropped back in the +20% range.

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 6/26/2009

Horace Kent 31.92%
fast 24.65%
chinaman711 20.72%
albert0373 18.95%
imasong 18.48%

Previous standings from last update:
Horace Kent 25.78%
fast 24.70%
albert0373 19.36%
timsummit 18.48%
chinaman711 16.54%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Untitled-2copy.png

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Week ending 7/2/2009

Horace Kent 22.61%
fast 19.90%
albert0373 13.05%
timsummit 12.31%
chinaman711 11.27%

Previous standings from last update:
Horace Kent 31.92%
fast 24.65%
chinaman711 20.72%
albert0373 18.95%
imasong 18.48%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/Untitled-22copy.png

[Albert0373]

Sorry for the late update!

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Standings as of 7/13/2009

Horace Kent 20.87%
fast 10.66%
wonder 9.06%
chinaman711 8.27%
shulink 7.87%

Previous standings from last update:
Horace Kent 22.61%
fast 19.90%
albert0373 13.05%
timsummit 12.31%
chinaman711 11.27%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/7132009.png

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Standings as of 7/26/2009

Horace Kent 43.42%
fast 33.56%
Albert0373 31.61%
chinaman711 28.52%
timsummit 27.93%

Previous standings from last update:
Horace Kent 20.87%
fast 10.66%
wonder 9.06%
chinaman711 8.27%
shulink 7.87%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/7262009.png

Sorry golfdock, I'll get your GM pick updated to the new symbol and recalculate your standing next update!

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Standings as of 8/3/2009

Horace Kent 53.04%
albert0373 34.17%
fast 32.82%
timsummit 28.09%
chinaman711 27.67%

Previous standings from last update:
Horace Kent 43.42%
fast 33.56%
Albert0373 31.61%
chinaman711 28.52%
timsummit 27.93%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/832009.png

[useless]

has anyone 'sold' yet? doesnt appear so, just checkin

[Albert0373]

Nope, nobody has sold any of their positions yet.

Horace has the biggest gainer with DDRX at 116.82% since the beginning of the contest!

Wow!

[Albert0373]

Top 5 Members by % Gain:
Standings as of 8/11/2009

Horace Kent 48.59%
fast 35.96%
albert0373 34.11%
wonder 29.16%
chinaman711 25.96%

Previous standings from last update:
Horace Kent 53.04%
albert0373 34.17%
fast 32.82%
timsummit 28.09%
chinaman711 27.67%


Note: Remember, your price paid was the average of the highest and lowest closing price during the given two-week picking period.

http://i344.photobucket.com/albums/p325/albert0373/8112009.png

[Horace Kent]

OH man. I forgot all about selling. But, we can't buy/short anything to fill the void, huh?

Man.........this is tough.....I think my reign of terror could be over soon.

But, I think I'm gonna hold on into dec.

[madcowdisease]

I might be cutting NTES loose here as it's looking slightly overbought and has had a good run. Albert, what are the details surrounding selling? Is the price as of the market day we post our request to sell or is it an average like the buy-in price was?

[Albert0373]

What do you guys think of the price sold as the day's close? Sounds good to me.

Great pick on NTES by the way, it's been on a tear.

[madcowdisease]

What do you guys think of the price sold as the day's close? Sounds good to me.

Great pick on NTES by the way, it's been on a tear.

I guess that depends how much effort you're willing to put into this contest. Are you suggesting that if I were to post in this thread a "sell" order at 2 PM the closing price would be the sell? How would you treat a "sell" order over the weekend? Would we get the close on Monday or are you open to using the opening price the following day if an order is placed outside of market hours?

I'm appreciative of your willingness to oversee this contest so I don't want to burden you too much, but I like the idea of using open and closing prices contingent on when the order is posted in this thread rather than being limited to just the closing price.

PS: I'm thinking of dumping NTES, please don't cash me out just yet. I think the RSI can run a little more before booking the the gain.

[Thierry Martin]

It seems that Albert has lost his internet privileges so anybody that wants to take over and keep this challenge updated should contact me.

[Florida]

It seems that Albert has lost his internet privileges so anybody that wants to take over and keep this challenge updated should contact me.

Forgive the lack of stock by stock detail, but here are the totals by each player through about the past hour:

Member Total Percent change
Stay Liquid 87.60%
Horace Kent 76.68%
Wonder 58.50%
Florida 57.66%
timsummit 52.43%
WiggyNYU 49.71%
fast 45.11%
Mastajab 34.45%
chinaman711 32.68%
aiki14 30.37%
imasong 29.31%
shulink 28.60%
john for u80 26.77%
jlcnuke 26.71%
rkahn 26.25%
albert0373 24.03%
golfdock 19.72%
useless 18.43%
intowin 16.97%
madcowdisease 13.01%
jacksonAK92 10.66%
BULLSEYE 8.09%
showmethemoney 1.67%
stabbs -8.70%

[Stay Liquid]

Whoa I'm on top?! Somebody revive this thing ....! :biggrin:

[BlueChipsInvestor]

I believe that's wrong, Florida.

[Florida]

I believe that's wrong, Florida.

Not that you have a dog in the hunt, but what is wrong?

I'm not saying there might not be a mistake, but I need a little more detail in order to fix any error that may exist.

[BlueChipsInvestor]

Stayliquid's portfolio size I believe

[Florida]

Stayliquid's portfolio size I believe


I stand corrected, as of today's close, the top 5 are:

Horace Kent 69%

timsummit 64%

Wonder 57%

Florida 56%

Stay Liquid 53%


Sorry for the previous error on Stay Liquid, I believe it should have been 57.6% on the 16th, not the 87.6% shown previously.

Any other errors noted, please let me know.

[jlcnuke]

I started making an excel spreadsheet today, I'll try to get it finished by the end of the week to show the pertinent information (name, stocks, price bought, close price, percentages and overall percentage) similar to the last one. If that's what you have Florida let me know and I'll drop it, if not I'll post it after I update it each weekend.

[Stay Liquid]

Sorry for the previous error on Stay Liquid, I believe it should have been 57.6% on the 16th, not the 87.6% shown previously.

Any other errors noted, please let me know.

In the future I prefer you only correct erors that were *not* made in my favor, all errors to the contrary can remain as-is :p

[Florida]

Status as of about 10 minutes ago:

Horace Kent 81.62%

Florida 66.88%

timsummit 60.51%

WiggyNYU 59.01%

Wonder 59.00%

Anyone else that wants to know where they are, PM me.

[Florida]

The following stocks selected in this contest are currently at or above 100% return since purchased:

BEXP 192% Mastajab

ODP 128% Jonforu80

DDRX 115% Horace Kent

ZLC 107% Florida

TSL 103% Timsummit

PL 101% Horace Kent

[Florida]

Status as of the close on 11-3-09:

Horace Kent 70.10%

timsummit 59.52%

WiggyNYU 51.97%

Wonder 48.66%

rkahn 39.44%

By the way, the S&P is up about 15% since the start of contest, and the NASDAQ is up about 19% during the same period.

In all 13 players are beating the market, and 11 are below the market

8 players are currently double or better what the market has done

the worst results so far are -13.15%

[fast]

So, where do I stand?

Just curious.

[gsavli]

uh, oh, just scratch this...