Liking RAIL here

[aiki14]

They make railroad cars. The existing rolling stock is getting old, the price of trucking is going up and rail is less fuel sensitive. Buffet is in the rail companies, Soros just bought into RAIL. Technically coming off a bottom with excellent OBV, Breaking through 9mma looking at next resistance at 48.50 (which would be up 3% from here).
Just took the profits from WINN and put them here. Good luck to all who play it.

[AJLightning]

TRN is a better play in my opinion.


"Trinity manufactures and sells railcars and railcar parts, inland barges, concrete and aggregates, highway products, beams and girders used in highway construction, tank containers and structural wind towers."

[aiki14]

TRN is a better play in my opinion.


"Trinity manufactures and sells railcars and railcar parts, inland barges, concrete and aggregates, highway products, beams and girders used in highway construction, tank containers and structural wind towers."

I like the pure domestic rail play of RAIL. Railroad cars only represent a fraction of the TRN business, and I am not as bullish on their other divisions.
RAIL being up into a down market is attractive here as well.
WAB is a good play in the sector as well, but skewed away from the cars to motive and subsystems.

[onlinesuccess]

Got in at 46.97...

I too believe that the fundies and TA are strong. The balance sheet shows a favorable increase in net receivables and total assests. The income statement is solid with both income before and after taxes increasing annually. EPS and Sales growth numbers are both extremely positive for this industry. Finally the P/E is very low and the dividends doubled in the last offering.

Great job on WINN.

[Thierry Martin]

I prefer the chart for TRN.

1214

1215

[onlinesuccess]

If I were to buy Construction Services Industry I would pick JEC rather than TRN. IMO...

JEC recently split at 89-90 and now is back up to 53-54.

Specific to a railcar swing trade RAIL will work nicely.

[kingfisher]

If i am not mistaken Coolio made this call not so long ago. But its is a good pick all the same!

[onlinesuccess]

Which one? RAIL, TRN, or JEC?

[coolio]

I did and still like RAIL

http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?t=10263&highlight=buffet

[AJLightning]

I did and still like RAIL

http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?t=10263&highlight=buffet


still like RAIL now?? take a look below and see if you can find it...


Bullish
AIG (AIG) ("another 10 points this year") (Mad Money)
Alcoa (AA) ("on a rampage, going to $42 or $45") (Mad Money)
Altria (MO) (Mad Money)
American Express (AXP) (will reach $72 by end of 2007") (Mad Money)
AT&T (T) ("$45 by year-end") (Mad Money)
Atwood Oceanics (ATW) (Lightning Round)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) (Mad Money)
Boeing (BA) ("should reach $105") (Mad Money)
Cameco (CCJ) (Lightning Round)
Caterpillar (CAT) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Chevron (CVX) (Lightning Round)
Darling International (DAR) (Lightning Round)
Deere (DE) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Exxon Mobil (XOM) (Lightning Round)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Halliburton (HAL) (Lightning Round)
Halliburton (HAL) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) (Lightning Round)
News Corp. (NWS) (Lightning Round)
Nokia (NOK) (Lightning Round)
Parker Hannifin (PH) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Qualcomm (QCOM) (Lightning Round)
Spartan Motors (SPAR) (CEO on Mad Money)
Texas Instruments (TXN) (Lightning Round)
Total System Services (TSS) (Mad Money)
Transocean (RIG) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Trinity Industries (TRN) (Lightning Round)

Bearish
Blockbuster (BBI) (Lightning Round)
Brightpoint (CELL) (Lightning Round)
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) (Lightning Round)
FreightCar America (RAIL) (Lightning Round)
Glaxo (GSK) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Intel (INTC) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Pfizer (PFE) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Synopsys (SNPS) (Lightning Round)
Vaalco Energy (EGY) (Lightning Round)

[bobbyusc]

I have trolled this site for a few months and greatly value Aiki's picks. But, I think RAIL may not bethe best stock in this sector. Railways have been getting a lot of press this year, giant gains in the rail stocks, Alternative to expensive trucking, Berkshire, Cramer, etc... Through all this AND an amazing bull run we are having, the stock is down?! I wont try to fight the current on this one despite your amazing past performances Aiki.

[aiki14]

I have trolled this site for a few months and greatly value Aiki's picks. But, I think RAIL may not bethe best stock in this sector. Railways have been getting a lot of press this year, giant gains in the rail stocks, Alternative to expensive trucking, Berkshire, Cramer, etc... Through all this AND an amazing bull run we are having, the stock is down?! I wont try to fight the current on this one despite your amazing past performances Aiki.

An analyst on CNBC at 3:30 was touting the Railroads and specifically mentioned TRN. Both TRN and RAIL picked up. I am liking my pick and TRN as well.

[coolio]

still like RAIL now?? take a look below and see if you can find it...


Bullish
AIG (AIG) ("another 10 points this year") (Mad Money)
Alcoa (AA) ("on a rampage, going to $42 or $45") (Mad Money)
Altria (MO) (Mad Money)
American Express (AXP) (will reach $72 by end of 2007") (Mad Money)
AT&T (T) ("$45 by year-end") (Mad Money)
Atwood Oceanics (ATW) (Lightning Round)
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) (Mad Money)
Boeing (BA) ("should reach $105") (Mad Money)
Cameco (CCJ) (Lightning Round)
Caterpillar (CAT) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Chevron (CVX) (Lightning Round)
Darling International (DAR) (Lightning Round)
Deere (DE) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Exxon Mobil (XOM) (Lightning Round)
Foster Wheeler (FWLT) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Halliburton (HAL) (Lightning Round)
Halliburton (HAL) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) (Lightning Round)
News Corp. (NWS) (Lightning Round)
Nokia (NOK) (Lightning Round)
Parker Hannifin (PH) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Qualcomm (QCOM) (Lightning Round)
Spartan Motors (SPAR) (CEO on Mad Money)
Texas Instruments (TXN) (Lightning Round)
Total System Services (TSS) (Mad Money)
Transocean (RIG) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Trinity Industries (TRN) (Lightning Round)

Bearish
Blockbuster (BBI) (Lightning Round)
Brightpoint (CELL) (Lightning Round)
Evergreen Solar (ESLR) (Lightning Round)
FreightCar America (RAIL) (Lightning Round)
Glaxo (GSK) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Intel (INTC) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Pfizer (PFE) (mentioned on Stop Trading!)
Synopsys (SNPS) (Lightning Round)
Vaalco Energy (EGY) (Lightning Round)

First, Cramer sez he's not a chartist, yet most every stock he likes has an uptrend. He's not a really good stock picker (see the chimp). His best picks have been when he's been tipped off by his buddies at Goldman. I'll give him his due when he predicts the overall trend in the market, though.

2nd, from what date is this list? I know he's already turned on some of those stocks 180 degrees.

[aiki14]

First, Cramer sez he's not a chartist, yet most every stock he likes has an uptrend. He's not a really good stock picker (see the chimp). His best picks have been when he's been tipped off by his buddies at Goldman. I'll give him his due when he predicts the overall trend in the market, though.

2nd, from what date is this list? I know he's already turned on some of those stocks 180 degrees.

Gee Cramer negative on RAIL, I wonder if the guy who sold me mine at 46.25 is a fan? If I was Thierry I would change the name of the forum after a call like that. Huh? Already done? Never mind.

[TonyM]

My .02 ; RAIL was down as CL got to the 66 area, and naturally is up today since CL is down, but not as much as mainstream media would have you believe since they were quoting the expiring June contract all day. Inventory report seems to have been priced in if it is bearish, but those analysts have a knack for being wrong and any surprise drawdowns at all should send CL & RBOB soaring, and if so I would guess that RAIL reverses direction again. My guess is that I could hold my breath waiting for the next refinery breakdown.

As far as Cramer goes, I never hear his name mentioned on Bloomberg, I wonder why? Probably because the floor traders would be laughed out of the building if they used his show to make trading decisions.

[AJLightning]

First, Cramer sez he's not a chartist, yet most every stock he likes has an uptrend. He's not a really good stock picker (see the chimp). His best picks have been when he's been tipped off by his buddies at Goldman. I'll give him his due when he predicts the overall trend in the market, though.

2nd, from what date is this list? I know he's already turned on some of those stocks 180 degrees.

last nights show...

[aiki14]

My .02 ; RAIL was down as CL got to the 66 area, and naturally is up today since CL is down, but not as much as mainstream media would have you believe since they were quoting the expiring June contract all day. Inventory report seems to have been priced in if it is bearish, but those analysts have a knack for being wrong and any surprise drawdowns at all should send CL & RBOB soaring, and if so I would guess that RAIL reverses direction again. My guess is that I could hold my breath waiting for the next refinery breakdown.

As far as Cramer goes, I never hear his name mentioned on Bloomberg, I wonder why? Probably because the floor traders would be laughed out of the building if they used his show to make trading decisions.

T, I am thinking the rail play is positive if fuel prices are up. The rails are cheaper than trucks, fuel per mile of cargo. That, the overall condition of the rolling stock, the technical analysis of RAIL over the last few days, and the big shot buyers of railroads generally and RAIL (Soros) specifically, are what leads me to think it was a buy at 46 and will be again if it goes through resistance at 48.50.

[TonyM]

I see your point, I'm thinking that RAIL has obviously budgeted their fuel costs and depending upon how well and if they hedged their costs it will affect their margins at a specific level. The question is will a percieved increase in business derived from trucking offset those fuel costs? Tomorrow's EIA inventory report might be a good tell, watch RAIL's reaction to it at 10:30 am

[AJLightning]

They make railroad cars. The existing rolling stock is getting old, the price of trucking is going up and rail is less fuel sensitive. Buffet is in the rail companies, Soros just bought into RAIL. Technically coming off a bottom with excellent OBV, Breaking through 9mma looking at next resistance at 48.50 (which would be up 3% from here).
Just took the profits from WINN and put them here. Good luck to all who play it.

aiki...answer me this one o' great one!!

did you get into RAIL as a swing trade, or long term? How long or what was your strategy?

[aiki14]

aiki...answer me this one o' great one!!

did you get into RAIL as a swing trade, or long term? How long or what was your strategy?

Short term looking for a few percent, if it runs through resistance at 48.50 I hope to get 5-10% , either way I won't hold it more than a week or two most likely unless I can justify it at whatever level it is at when I re-evaluate it. I just liked the few factors in my above post as a trade. I saw in an article Soros had bought in so I did some research, also probably remembered Coolio had it here a couple weeks ago as well.

By the way, TonyM, these guys only make the rolling stock, not the loco's and they aren't a railroad. The railroads are a tad flush with cash and the existing rolling stock is ancient, I am looking at a pure play on the various transport cars the railroads will be buying.

[TonyM]

Short term looking for a few percent, if it runs through resistance at 48.50 I hope to get 5-10% , either way I won't hold it more than a week or two most likely unless I can justify it at whatever level it is at when I re-evaluate it. I just liked the few factors in my above post as a trade. I saw in an article Soros had bought in so I did some research, also probably remembered Coolio had it here a couple weeks ago as well.

By the way, TonyM, these guys only make the rolling stock, not the loco's and they aren't a railroad. The railroads are a tad flush with cash and the existing rolling stock is ancient, I am looking at a pure play on the various transport cars the railroads will be buying.


Ahh, well that certainly negates a fuel cost concern other than delivery purposes, not sure how that is handled though. I figured I'd better look up a little more on them, I discovered that in 2006 96% of the cars produced were for for coal transportation, which is apparently their specialty. Looks like more attention on the coal industry and aluminum costs would be appropriate rather than oil, I retract my earlier .02 and replace it with this;)

Company Background
FreightCar America, Inc. (America) is a manufacturer of aluminum-bodied railcars in North America. The Company specializes in the production of coal-carrying railcars, which represented 96% of its deliveries of railcars, during the year ended December 31, 2006, while the balance of its production consisted of a spectrum of railcar types, including aluminum-bodied and steel-bodied railcars. America also refurbishes and rebuilds railcars, and sells forged, cast and fabricated parts for all of the railcars it produces, as well as those manufactured by others. Americas primary customers are financial institutions, railroads and shippers, which represented 49% of its total sales attributable to each type of customer during 2006. In 2006, America delivered 18,764 new railcars, including 17,959 aluminum-bodied, coal-carrying railcars.

[aiki14]

Crossed the 50ema today and ran up to my buy again at 48.50. Next resistance at around 51.60.

[onlinesuccess]

Awesome swing on RAIL. Glad I put a bit in it last week! Thanks!

[TonyM]

Should You Buy It: Freightcar America

By David Peltier
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/30/2007 7:39 AM EDT



The railroad operators, led by Union Pacific have been on fire lately, especially after Warren Buffett signaled his growing interest in the group back in April. In light of that, readers may be surprised to learn that shares of leading railcar-maker Freightcar America are down 12.7% year to date.

At Tuesday's closing price of $49.17, the stock trades around 11 times expected 2007 earnings of $4.33 per share. In comparison, the company's top competitor, American Railcar Industries is valued at 19.1 times expected full-year earnings, and the average stock in the S&P 500 trades for 16.2 times 2007 earnings.

Plus, Freightcar America delivered higher-than-expected first-quarter results May 1. The company earned $1.80 a share, which was 13 cents ahead of the consensus analyst estimate. Revenue grew 10% from the previous year to $322.5 million, which was also $25 million ahead of expectations.

On the other hand, railcar-unit orders were down 26% year over year in the first quarter, and Freightcar America's full-year earnings are expected to decline 57% from 2006.

So, I'm here to answer readers' questions: Should you buy it? Can Freightcar America shares get back on the right track, or will investors be derailed by a potential value trap?

The company's dependence on the coal market could be one reason for the stock's recent weakness, as about three-quarters of Freightcar America's new-car orders come from that group.


Although coal demand remains strong, especially in the electricity-generation business, the demand for new coal cars is on the decline, and the company said earlier this month that unit orders fell to 768 during the first quarter from just 1,031 a year ago.

Freightcar America's order backlog also dropped to 6,006 units, from 17,794 at the end of the first quarter of 2006. Based on the first-quarter run rate, these numbers show that the company already has the next eight quarters of business accounted for in its order backlog, despite the year-over-year declines.

Management also has been active in reducing costs in reaction to the lower production rates, and hinted at capacity reductions in its first-quarter earnings release. But it must be noted that the rising cost of aluminum, a key manufacturing component, continues to be an earnings headwind.

Diversifying the company's sales mix away from coal transport cars -- 78% in the first quarter compared with 100% a year ago -- will help vary the revenue stream, but it's also been a drag on the operating margin, which fell 70 basis points year over year to 10.5% in the first quarter. New orders during the same period were nearly split evenly between coal and noncoal cars, and margins should level out around 10% for the remainder of the year.

Another positive for the company is its pristine balance sheet. Freightcar America has $184 million of cash ($15 a share) and no debt. Management used $23.5 million of its savings to buy back about 477,000 shares in the first quarter, under a $50 million repurchase authorization announced in January. The company also pays a 6-cent quarterly dividend (0.5% yield), which I believe could be considerably boosted over the next few quarters.

Freightcar America's peak sales may be in the rearview mirror, but still I believe that growth in the sale of noncoal cars as well as the company's solid balance sheet will help support the shares in the near term.

And even though earnings are expected to fall considerably in 2007, Freightcar America continues to generate solid cash flow, which makes it a potential takeover target for a private-equity firm or a larger industrial manufacturer looking to make a tuck-in acquisition.

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscrss/markets/activetraderupdate/10359433.html

[aiki14]

I see it backed off a little at resistance. I may take some off the table, but what a good run on a down day, it could run through resistance at the 200ema which is at 51.26 on a good day tomorrow.

[Thierry Martin]

1380

[Amnion]

From StreetInsider

SAC Capital Accumulates 5.1% Stake in FreightCar America (RAIL)
06-04-2007 04:47:20 PM

In a 13G filing on FreightCar America (Nasdaq: RAIL (http://www.streetinsider.com/stock_lookup.php?q=RAIL)), SAC Capital/Steven A. Cohen disclosed a 5.1% stake (629K shares) in the company. The firm did not show a stake in RAIL at the quarter ended March 31, 2007.

FreightCar America, Inc. manufactures railroad freight cars, with particular expertise in coal-carrying railcars. In addition to coal cars, FreightCar America designs and builds flat cars, mill gondola cars, intermodal cars, coil steel cars and motor vehicle carriers.

According to Stockpickr.com, "SAC Capital Partners is a $12 billion dollar group of hedge funds founded by Steven A. Cohen in 1992. While SAC closely guards its returns, published reports and people who have seen the fund's letters to its investors say that SAC had a gross return, before its fees, of at least 40 percent in every year since inception, making it astoundingly successful."

Nice little pick there Aiki