Cramer's suggestions are often wrong

[glenn milton]

I wonder what happened to those people who listened to him when he announced that the Feds were going to stop raising rates back when GM first anounced their problems. Check out what Chk is selling for now. It wasn't that long ago that he was saying it was what you needed in your portfolio because wallstreet loved chk. I still remember when he got in trouble when he got ratted out by an employee at the hedgefund he was running for telling Maria Bartiroma that certain stocks would be good investments. I've lost a ton of cash by listening to him. Be careful with this guy or you can lose you nest egg. I'm looking for someone out there that would advise me that the Feds probably would keep raising rates back when GM made their announcement. I'd like to find someone that would tell me not to have bought chk back when it was so high because it was oversold and would probably come way back down. He just needs to not try so hard to sell the listener on his bad advice. He needs to advise listeners that there are basic reasons not to follow his advice. I really think he should give the listener the odds of his advise not being good advice and if you follow it you can lose your shirt because he is often wrong. He'll still get paid but when he's wrong and it will be your money that is lost. Trust me only risk a small amt of your portfolio with this guy's risky recommendations.

[optimus25]

Hey guy, if you comb through this forum you'll find others who are in a similar situation.

Don't ever, ever take anyone's word regarding your money. We don't pay the guy to give us advice. Its free, so you have to be a little suspect.

It is important to use the information he gives us as that, just information. Some may be good, some may be bad, but ultimately we have to decide if we should follow that advice. I don't buy his reco's on his reco's alone. He gives us the ideas. I have to do my own research and figure out if it is the right investment for me. Other than that its just entertainment.

[Jimmy]

You should never do anything just because Cramer said to, you have to do your own investigating and agree with the reasons why Cramer likes the stock so that it becomes your trade and not Cramer's.

For example, when Cramer was pumping Chesapeake, I looked up their balance sheet, cashflow, historic prices, insider trading, etc. to see if I thought it was a good enough risk. Then I researched natural gas to see if there was a really a bullmarket in natural gas and I concluded there was. When I purchased Chesapeake, I was making that purchase because I thought that it was a good trade- I didn't do it because Cramer thought it was a good trade. Admited I really don't like a lot of Jim's picks, but like he says you have to do your homework.

[optimus25]

You should never do anything just because Cramer said to, you have to do your own investigating and agree with the reasons why Cramer likes the stock so that it becomes your trade and not Cramer's.

For example, when Cramer was pumping Chesapeake, I looked up their balance sheet, cashflow, historic prices, insider trading, etc. to see if I thought it was a good enough risk. Then I researched natural gas to see if there was a really a bullmarket in natural gas and I concluded there was. When I purchased Chesapeake, I was making that purchase because I thought that it was a good trade- I didn't do it because Cramer thought it was a good trade. Admited I really don't like a lot of Jim's picks, but like he says you have to do your homework.

Right on Jimmy. A lot of his picks are dogs but he has had, from time to time, good ideas.

[helk]

Is he right or wrong? There are two sides to the argument. He's been pumping some of these energey stocks on his radio show for quite some time so if you were lucky enough to get in when he started pumping them, you probably made a lot of dough. If you were unfortunate enough to get in on them recently because of his TV show when he was still pushing them, you probably lost some dough. It's all relative. I think he can be a bit irresponsible on his TV show at times, but he does ALWAYS warn viewers to do their own homework first.

[optimus25]

Helk, I guess sometimes people get too caught up in it all...the whole "mad money" experience. Selective hearing. etc. :roll:

[ChronicDDL]

You don’t have to be right +50% of the time to make money; Cramer has said that on his show before. I play penny stocks and if I can get 1 out of 3 stocks right then I am sitting on some nice profits. Most of the stocks on his show are from the viewers who call in, and then he has 5 seconds to make a decision. I don’t know about you but I spend hour’s doing research and might even study a stock for 6 months before I buy.

[helk]

Optimus - yeah, it's easy to get caught up in the excitement. It must be that get rich quick gene hidden within all of us. Maybe Merck can make a drug to fix that urge :D

[deepinwonder]

I don't pay attention to Cramer's picks and pans as much as I do to his advice about investing, in general, which has really helped me out a lot. Using that, I have been able to pick some good winners, developed the courage to dump losers, and I do get some ideas about individual stocks on his show. But like most of you here, I research and make my own choices in the end. Pricing and entry points has a lot to do with my own successes and failures, I noticed, and the market has been very volatile. It's hard to know what to do, in that regard.

I'm in all cash now, waiting, watching... may change that next week, may not. Want to see some pullbacks in a couple of stocks before pulling the trigger, again.

[optimus25]

Optimus - yeah, it's easy to get caught up in the excitement. It must be that get rich quick gene hidden within all of us. Maybe Merck can make a drug to fix that urge :D

Yeah, i think that's one of the drugs in Merck's pipeline. :wink:

[glenn milton]

Guess I need to clarify what I put in the post. I think its dangerous for a lot of investors to watch MadMoney. Not everyone but some people might blindly follow his hipe and as a result lose their shirt. He's a salesman and he's very capable of leading the herd over the cliff. The TV network should do a lot more to tone him down or get him off the air. I hate to see some old man and woman lose their retirement nestegg by following his advise. I think it would be ok if the old man and woman paid to get his advise and as a result they lose their shirt but right now his advise is almost forced on everyone because its on every day three times a day.

[Damon]

Optimus said it best. Cramer makes good and bad calls, same as everyone else. Cramer serves a dual purpose. He provides entertainment for those of us who watch his show and he helps to make the stock market exciting for younger guys like me.

Anyone who acts on his advise without first doing their own research deserves what they get. How seriously can you take a guy who throws chairs and toy bulls around? He has some good general advice and provides ideas. He may bring stocks to your attention that you've never heard of before. However, it is the individual's responsibility to to their own follow-up research before investing their money. You can devote a small portion of your portfolio to "gambling", but you shouldn't put yourself in a position to lose your nest egg based on the advice of a guy on TV that's throwing toy bulls and shouting things like "booyah" and "are you ready skee-daddy".

If someone feels like his advice is "forced" on them, they should find something else to watch. I think I would hold him to a higher standard if his advice WAS paid for. But with FREE advice, you get what you pay for. 8)

[deepinwonder]

This is something a lot of people watching tv are totally ignoring, the foundation of Cramer's investing strategy:

http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/cramerbook

[deepinwonder]

I think its dangerous for a lot of investors to watch MadMoney.

Cramer is not the only analyst on tv, the internet or in newspapers... is it dangerous to watch them, too? Investing in Wall Street is not like going to Disneyland, so let's get real about that. If it was so easy and risk free, we'd all be millionaires. :lol:

[2 Worldz]

At any given time you could throw a dart at the wall street journal and make more money than Cramers fantasy island gameshow picks :!: :oops:

2 more cents for those who don't know.

[ki klempa]

now his advise is almost forced on everyone because its on every day three times a day.))))))))))))))

Okay glenn - cramer comes into your home and switches the channel to his program 3 times a day... okay I had my laugh for the day now I'm all set

[robram11]

I thought of a way to try to test the reliablity of cramer, to see how bad he is doing...I will open a fantasy account on investopedia.com and buy 10 shares of everything he is bullish about, hold it for a fixed period of time say one month (as he suggests on his radioshow, Real Money), unless he prescribes a length or gives it a bear. I wonder how it will work out. Personally, i'm a cramer fan but i want to be as objective as possible about the content of his show.

[TripleBuy]

If anyone is unsure of Cramer's results, there are a couple of sites that list his picks and follow them. Try either:

http://madmoneyaddict.com/
or
http://69.93.236.85/index.php

I know I like to keep track of which picks are hits or flops.

[Beaker]

even Cramer's show itself shows where he was right and where he was wrong (I think it's every Friday, they do that)

personally I'd rather listen to a style like Cramer's than listen to some dry monotone guy using stocknobabble I don't understand.

[Beaker]

I thought of a way to try to test the reliablity of cramer, to see how bad he is doing...I will open a fantasy account on investopedia.com and buy 10 shares of everything he is bullish about, hold it for a fixed period of time say one month (as he suggests on his radioshow, Real Money), unless he prescribes a length or gives it a bear. I wonder how it will work out. Personally, i'm a cramer fan but i want to be as objective as possible about the content of his show.

gotta be carefull, sometimes he says "wait for it to fall, then buy" so your test still will be partly subjective

or even harder to track, when he says "buy in chunks as it goes up," that one will be very subjective to judge

[robram11]

gotta be carefull, sometimes he says "wait for it to fall, then buy" so your test still will be partly subjective

or even harder to track, when he says "buy in chunks as it goes up," that one will be very subjective to judge

Thank you for your thoughts. I agree with your assessment of my idea: it does have those flaws. "Wait for it fall" is very subjective as to when I see I made its bottom. However, the other sites that were suggested previously work very similarily. They rank them based on overall performance not when cramer said to trade. If you look, a lot of energy stocks are "his worst picks." I personally, have made $$$ from some of those stocks and eventually he said to get rid of energy. Therefore, I feel there is no faithful algoritm to rate his calls.

[oldboldpilot]

You have made the mistake of criticizing a man whose only virtue seems to be screaming at the top of his lungs while spewing saliva along with his rendition of analysis. I saw the 60 Minute segment devoted to him and all I can say is ......he has found a new forum to display his histrionics...booyah ! The funniest statement Cramer has made is when he said that he relished the idea of teaching people how to invest. It would be fascinating to develop statistics as to how much money Cramer has made (or lost) for people who have followed his advice as opposed to those who retain a vestige of sanity and disregard his rantings.

The fact is that Cramer makes a bundle doing his act ( and he risks nothing other than criticism) There are those who think he is the ultimate guru....and then there are the rest of us.[/img]

[deepinwonder]

a man whose only virtue seems to be screaming at the top of his lungs while spewing saliva along with his rendition of analysis

Only virtue? That's quite a strong and morally judgmental statement about any human being.

I have made quite a bit off Cramer's calls and have found his rules for investing helpful, which it looks like you never even bothered to check out. No, I do not think he's perfect, but it's one thing to criticize a person's show or stock calls and another to go that low, buster. Go fly a kite.

[berberick]

Cramers picks on the show often explode .Just watch the after h. trading as he calls them . Demand up , price up , daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa . Cramer knows his stuff . You buy , THE GOOD TRADERS DUMP > YOU LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSE .Learn the ropes before you crit. Read between the lines , ed yourself. The man knows his stuff .

[berberick]

He picks . Insiders after hours buy . Price rockets . You buy the next day . They sell .DAAAAAAAAAAA . You lose

[Gurudian]

The show is called "Mad Money" not "Cramer Says"

[mdamia]

Yes, as others have said, it is your money and you need to be skeptical of the TV entertainers and their off the cuff responses. However enjoy the show and learn from some of the strategies that are being revealed. Can you believe I never used a limit order until I started watching Cramer!!!! What a moron I was all these years. Have to give Jimbo credit on that one and I have not used a market order since.

[xboilermaker]

You know, I never even thought of that, and the same is true for me. Over 2 years using nothing but market orders until Cramer mentioned the "rip out your entrails and strangle you with them" analogy. Now I wonder if I would have learned about limit orders on my own, or if I would still be letting the brokers rob me. I also thank him.

[the_menace]

#1 rule: Never listen to anybody's advice. Do your own research and go by the numbers, trends, and the market flow.

I watch mad money several times per week including keeping up on his website, but I use his information (and others) to speculate. In the end, I base my decision on which stock to take position and which one to avoid.

[optimus25]

Hard for me to say this but there are some people that don't belong in the market. Cramer or no cramer.

[jbtrader23]

Buying a stock just because Jim Cramer mentions it is like buying a car that you heard someone talk about on TV. Or going on vacation because you heard a tip that it's a great place to visit.

When spending thousands of dollars on anything, do your own research. You may get some good ideas from Cramer. It's no different than getting good ideas from the Travel Channel. But you've got to do your own research.

[optimus25]

I guess there are still people buying solely on Cramer's recommendations, getting burned, then mouthing off on this site about how dumb Cramer is for making the recommendation. All the while not listening to the disclaimer at the beginning of the show.

[deepinwonder]

All the while not listening to the disclaimer at the beginning of the show.

Or doing their own homework, like he keeps telling them. But his "I want you to buy this, right now" or "I want you in that stock" statements do not bear that out or encourage independent thinking, especially among new investors. He does deserve criticism for that, I think, but you know... he is a showman. Just keep that in mind, when watching, and do all the same research you would normally think to do for any stock, no matter who recommends it. Then it's your call and if things go right, you get the credit and money, and if things go wrong, hopefully you learned a lesson you would not get by blaming your own lack of diligence on another.

[Natural Gas]

I've said it before.....I'll say it again. Cramer's picks are just an educated guess. Just like everybody's picks. The pre-show disclaimer is just to protect CNBC from civil liability. My only objection to the format is that Cramer is represented to be the "GURU" or "STOCKSTAR" (so that you will watch)and he talks about his staff that pours over this info all day long so there is a basic assumption that the homework has been done. Then like DIW stated "Cramer wants you in it now" is not prudent. I've learned that in buying stock, the entry point is what is critical. You can't pick the bottom or top but give me that right entry point over dividends anyday. All the greatest homework in the world doesn't seem to overcome a falling sector or a penny miss on earnings. I've also learned the hard way that if some item makes news on CNBC that you think should move the stock, it's already too late to get in. Just enjoy the babes and remember that THEY ARE NOT BUYING THE STOCK THAT IS BEING TOUTED.

[deepinwonder]

Hi NaturalGas, glad to see you!

Entry points, that is definitely the sticker and the only places I have really screwed up on, in investing. Have no problem picking out good companies, where to get in is the question. I found this website called americanbulls.com that comments on trading action every day, using the candlestick method. Found that kind of interesting. They aren't always right, but if you are someone like me who can actually get paralyzed with inaction, because you are not sure if it's the "right time," it could be helpful.

My best moves have always been buying when I see the entire market down, then I have no fear of jumping in. Maybe I should just stick to that? :o

[optimus25]

My best moves have always been buying when I see the entire market down, then I have no fear of jumping in. Maybe I should just stick to that? :o

That is a great strategy. Buy 'em when their cheap.

[Natural Gas]

Thanks DIW, good to be seen. Must be cold in NC right now. I'm in Fla. I have seen the American Bulls web and plan to become more familiar as time goes on. I have now read Turners book and found the section on candlesticks very informative. Everything helps but can't help but notice that virtually every symbol indication the candlesticks signal there is a caveat like "not all the time" or an evening doji USUALLY signals a pivot point etc. Even TCG and all the candle proponents talk of support levels and entry points but their caveat is if that's not it then it will be such and such (lower point), so caution is definately king. I seen several of your posts where you indicate your in cash now, waiting. I'm curious as to why when the market has been good the past few months even tempting 11,000? I started to pull out several months ago (based on Cramers picks) but found other opportunities in MTU, SYY, ESV, GOOG to be luring me back in. I'm currently all in and think through Jan. things will be okay. The housing indicators are making me nervous. Maybe not recession but stagflation.

[Natural Gas]

I have over the past few months purged my mad money portfolio of all of Cramers picks except two. Still have MDRX (down a few bucks per share) and GOOGLE which has been a great winner. Not to be greedy I have a trailing stop in place so as to enjoy the ride.

I still tune in usually to see the first stock he is touting and why but then I switch to the news. I don't care for the lightning round anymore because all he does is yell and scream so I can't understand most of what he is trying to say. Many people ask him "should I sell or hold"? He can't answer that for people because there is a lot of info about the persons $ situation that makes up that decision.

Personally I prefer his shows when he calmly stands in front of the camera and just explains the thinking of hedge fund or mutual fund managers and how that effects the market. I like to hear more about the inner workings of Wall Street. I know thats not very entertaining but I'm more into learning from him how to make money then watching him throw chairs. I still follow Jubaks picks with greater interest.

[deepinwonder]

I seen several of your posts where you indicate your in cash now, waiting. I'm curious as to why when the market has been good the past few months even tempting 11,000

Because oil, gold and the rest of the market have been trading up together and this something that goes against what I would consider "normal" action. Also seeing the market trading up because "it's winter," they were talking about that again this morning on CNBC. I don't think that's any good reason, winter comes every year, and then comes spring. I thought the market is supposed to be trading on what is in store months ahead, not next week. I think there is going to be another huge sell off after Christmas and if this holds true, I will buy some stocks at those lower levels.

I'm also really busy with the Christmas season and year end approaching, so can't pay attention to stocks as much as I should, if I'm in up to my neck with holdings. It's just working out better for me, right now. My husband has a few small stocks I'm tracking and he's doing pretty well with those! The hedge funders won't be dumping those, because they aren't in them. :lol:

I totally agree with your take on Cramer's show, I prefer to know about the inside workings of the market, too, because I'm not on Wall Street and don't understand a lot of the mentality or action going on there. Also like when he discusses strategy. Cramer's book has helped me more than anything, but the Lightening Round has helped me become familiar with more companies than I would have known about. I've gotten quite a few great ideas from those callers.

[optimus25]

Personally I prefer his shows when he calmly stands in front of the camera and just explains the thinking of hedge fund or mutual fund managers and how that effects the market. I like to hear more about the inner workings of Wall Street. I know thats not very entertaining but I'm more into learning from him how to make money then watching him throw chairs. I still follow Jubaks picks with greater interest.

I don't really watch the show as much but I do listen to it on my XM radio when I'm on the road. I cringe at some of the reco's that he makes, especially during the lightning round because I know that there are people who don't understand how the market works, and will get burned by not looking at their entry point as an important basis in investing. A company may be good to invest in but new investors get shaken out easily when they see a drop in the price of the stock they invest in.

Wall street is an interesting animal. You see a lot of the herd mentality w/ brokers, institutionals, hedge funds, and mutual fund managers chasing performance and trying to look good in the eyes of their investors. I think that is why investors like Warren Buffett have been so successful...he doesn't buy based on the current hot stock. He buys companies based on value and fundamentals. Might not work for everyone but it has for him.

Cramer's views regarding the market and the inner workings of wall street is of definite interest to me. Try reading "Reminisence of a Stock Operator" a fun read into the world of plunging and stock manipulation.

[optimus25]

I'm also really busy with the Christmas season and year end approaching, so can't pay attention to stocks as much as I should, if I'm in up to my neck with holdings. It's just working out better for me, right now. My husband has a few small stocks I'm tracking and he's doing pretty well with those! The hedge funders won't be dumping those, because they aren't in them. :lol:

I totally agree with your take on Cramer's show, I prefer to know about the inside workings of the market, too, because I'm not on Wall Street and don't understand a lot of the mentality or action going on there. Also like when he discusses strategy. Cramer's book has helped me more than anything, but the Lightening Round has helped me become familiar with more companies than I would have known about. I've gotten quite a few great ideas from those callers.

Its definitely better to be away from all the madness so that you can make your own objective decisions.

[Natural Gas]

Thanks for the info Optimus, that gives me several books to read. Knowledge is king.

DIW- Your observation regarding oil and gold are valid. I would also throw in that they are rising at the same time as the fed is tightening by raising interest rates. Kudlow refers to this tandem every knight as the infamous Greenspan "knundrum". I stayed out of gold for that very reason and yet here we are at 500. Go figure. I've discovered that what I don't understand has a tendancy to burn me.

I've also concluded that stock fundamentals just seem to be the justification for perceived value and technicals seem to be wishful symbolic indicators. It's been my perception that people are more pessimistic then optimistic with market trends so I think generally there is more downward pressure then upward. But I can't really think in terms of shorting. So upward and onward!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[deepinwonder]

I don't short stocks, either, or play with options. Just buy and sell. The one big mistake I've been making, and continue to make, is not getting into titanium (TIE.) Look at it, up $3.75 again, today!! 8O

Earlier, I put a post on here about the candlestick charts, but I don't see it, maybe I didn't hit "submit." I've been looking at americanbulls.com to try and learn about the technicals of the daily trading action. Finding good entry points is my big problem, like Optimus was saying, so I thought if I understood that part of it a little better, it might help. Sometimes Cramer mentions them and sometimes he doesn't, that is where a lot of people watching his show and following his advice have lost money, I think.

I wish he'd discuss commodities a little more, if we are going to talk about international investing, that is the area I am most interested in. Metals, for one. But I totally agree with what you're saying about gold, NatGas, it is running contrary to what I think it should be doing and you know, some of those analysts who keep trying to explain why, are falling flat as duds on my ears. I think they are trying to hype it and they are making NO SENSE. Even so, that is where the herd is running... and where they go, profits can be seen.

[Hexum]

LOL this is good reading. Many of the people on here who don't like Cramer have been DEAD wrong with their own picks. (Won't name any names but you know who you are :) ) Everyone thinks they know it all...

Like I said in a previous post on a different thread and many people have said on here... its simple. Do your own research. And if the stock goes down 15% 2 weeks after you buy it big deal! If its a stock you still like buy more!! Dont panic and sell and then come on here and b!tch because someone told you to buy it and lost money. Cramer gives you ideas! If you go out and buy everything he says you deserve to lose your money.

[optimus25]

MMMMMM Donuts. Nice avatar Hexum. I wonder what happened to Krispy Kreme. Has it been delisted.

I know that this is off topic but its Friday. Happy friday everyone.

[Luc1Grunt]

Cramer winked one time, and I think he implied I should spend all my money on patio furniture, now I have all this patio furniture just sitting on the deck getting wet. Bad Cramer!!! I hope Cramer keeps making me do things that I don't want to do! Bad Cramer!

Thank God I have Cramer to blame, or I would have to blame myself. And that would not allow me to remain a sheep.

[deepinwonder]

LOLOL Bad Cramer!!! :lol:

I was thinking about putting patio furniture in my dining room. It's a small space and I thought that might look cool... sans umbrella.

[Luc1Grunt]

LOL!

[Hexum]

MMM Good Donuts!!

[church mouse]

Luc,

I am glad to see I am not the only one who has the insight to clearly see when Cramer wants us to BUY BUY BUY something other than stocks.

I, like any normal American woman, clearly interpreted his December 8th thestreet.com “Bling Things Revisited” article, which included a Tiffany & Co. upgrade, to mean that I should immediately upgrade my jewelry “portfolio” and purchase their ten strand sterling silver heart bracelet. This allowed me to not only follow his saavy advice but also to give deprived Tiffany & Co. a sorely needed boost. Cramer is a genius, really.

It’s good to know that when the UPS man delivers it, I can simply tell my soon to be irate husband that “I was just following Cramer’s recommendation.”

It really does pay to be a Cramer follower, and it’s just a matter of time before those who criticize Cramers recommendations catch on to the “real” messages he’s trying to send us. Did you also interpret his November 8th Darden recommendation to mean it was time to gather up the family and go out to Olive Garden for dinner that evening?

I am still trying to correctly interpret his Gold (GG) recommendations, but suspect he means that, too, should be tied into a Tiffany & Co "upgrade".….. yeah, that’s it……because it is crystal clear to me that when he tells us to “do our homework” he really wants us to shop from home on the internet. No shopping from work, though- because he's really not for that at all.

It's all so simple, I just don’t understand why folks aren’t catching on.

Beth Ann
:wink:

[deepinwonder]

I took his COH recommendation as a sign I need a new handbag, but which color?? :wink:

[church mouse]

I've got the pink one with the matching wallet, Deep, and I have to say it's really pretty..... but maybe he'll give you a clue on Monday's show.

Beth Ann

[nefrologocatracho]

LOL this is good reading. :lol:

BTW listen to Cramer and buy stock in Tiffany's - I just bought my girlfriend a diamond engagement ring, and based on the price it should ensure them an excellent quarter. yikes. 8O

[deepinwonder]

I liked the purple patch one I saw here at the outlet stores for $300. :)

Speaking of COH, they beat the pants off TIF selling in Japan. I sold my stock in TIF's, when I saw that. Had been a long term holder and they had been making excuse after excuse as to why they couldn't sell over there... the bad economy and yada yada. Then what do they do? Sink more money into a big new store. Think not! Cramer said a couple of times that Japan is a good reason to buy TIF, but it's more like a reason to buy COH, if you are looking to invest in that country. imo

[oldboldpilot]

I just LOVe the Warren Buffets in the crowd who seem to know EVERYTHING...much the same way that Cramer does. I particularly love the way others criticize my particular method of investing....as though
they have this super superior porfolio. Anyone who chamions one particular method is an idiot. You read everything you can about any
particular stock, roll the dice and take your chances. Regardless of what anyone says, it is a crapshoot ! If you don't believe it, take a look at Lucent Technologies...............who wudda thought !!!!!!
And Cramer STILL touts them..........go figure !